Everyone knew the Denver Broncos were going to spend a Day 1 or 2 pick on a running back. No one thought it would be RJ Harvey. The draft capital and landing spot instantly catapulted Harvey from a late-round dart throw to a fantasy football RB2. Should fantasy managers be willing to pay the price in 2025 drafts?
RJ Harvey Fantasy Outlook
Easily one of the most polarizing and arguably important players for 2025 fantasy football, Harvey could make or break fantasy teams. It’s important to note that managed leagues are very different from Best Ball. There’s a reason ADP is not a one-to-one comparison. But there is value in looking back at early Best Ball ADP in certain situations. This is one of them.
Prior to the NFL Draft, Harvey was among a cluster of rookies that Best Ball drafters threw darts at in the double-digit rounds. Even when we didn’t know the landing spot, guys like Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson were going with relatively early picks. Harvey was not.
The sole reason. And I do mean the only singular reason Harvey carries an RB22 ADP is because of his landing spot and draft capital. Okay, maybe those are two reasons, but they go hand in hand.
Now, second-round draft capital is very strong, and the landing spot is truly elite. Harvey walked into a backfield just as barren as the one Ashton Jeanty entered, but it has been bolstered a bit with the addition of J.K. Dobbins.
Nevertheless, both of them have the same opportunity potential, with the primary difference being Jeanty is a borderline generational talent and has a much stronger case for being a three-down back.
Harvey will be competing for touches with J.K. Dobbins, which still gives him a significant edge. However, Dobbins is going to see the field, which is more than we can say about any of the Raiders’ backups.
While Harvey’s receiving profile isn’t amazing, he earned a 9.4% target share his final year at UFC. He’s capable of catching passes.
Sean Payton has had the benefit of some amazing receiving backs over the years. Harvey is obviously not Darren Sproles or Alvin Kamara. Yet, regardless of who Payton had in his backfield, his offenses have always targeted the running back position.
Since 2013, the lowest target share a Payton backfield has seen is 20%. Last season, among QBs with at least 200 pass attempts, Bo Nix ranked sixth in RB target share at 20.46%. In 2023, Russell Wilson was first at 29.53%.
On the surface, this appears to give Harvey a pretty high floor. That is, of course, if the targets go to him. Despite McLaughlin profiling as a satellite back, he only saw a 5.4% target share last season. Harvey could push a 15% target share, which would almost guarantee him a low RB2 floor.
With that said, the discourse around Harvey is propping up a middling talent based on situation and opportunity.
History Provides A Cautionary Tale on RBs Like Harvey
Volume is king in fantasy football, especially at the running back position. But, historically, it’s been a mixed bag when it comes to Day 2 running backs.
Since 2011, we’ve seen 11 Day 2 RBs taken in the first 5 rounds of fantasy drafts.
RJ Harvey currently looking like he will join that crew per @Underdog ADP- 5.07/RB17. pic.twitter.com/zryQc5NkYE
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 20, 2025
Not all of these backs were equal in terms of caliber of prospect or quality of landing spot. But we can still utilize this data. Shout out to Kyle for putting this together.
For me, the clearest parallel is to Ameer Abdullah. As a rookie in 2015, Abdullah walked into just as barren a running back room as Harvey is now. The Lions had a plodder with no receiving acumen in Joique Bell and a smaller scat back in Theo Riddick. While Riddick is a far better pass-catcher than McLaughlin or Dobbins, the overall setup of the backfields is similar.
To be fair, Abdullah’s ADP spiked about three rounds based on a singular preseason run. But I do distinctly remember him going in the fifth round. He averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game and was one of the worst picks you could’ve made.
None of this is to say that Harvey is going to be a bust. Instead, it’s to point out that even in what looks like an ideal situation, Harvey is no lock to produce.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
I have Harvey ranked at RB21. At the right spot, I will take him, but I can’t say I’m champing at the bit to get him on all of my teams. There’s too much uncertainty. While uncertainty is generally a good thing in fantasy football, as it provides opportunity, it’s best when the price is low. The price of Harvey is not low.
The screenshot above produced some massive hits, such as Kareem Hunt, Jonathan Taylor, and Eddie Lacy. It also provided some of the most colossal busts like Montee Ball and Cam Akers. Where will Harvey end up? The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. Whether he’s worth taking at his current ADP is up to you.
Frank Ammirante’s RJ Harvey Projection
RJ Harvey is an explosive back who put up 1,577 yards and 22 touchdowns on 6.8 yards per carry in his senior year at UCF. He is also a rookie who was handpicked by Sean Payton, so there’s a lot of upside here. The problem, though, is that the Broncos brought in JK Dobbins, who could form a committee with Harvey after turning in a rock-solid season with the Chargers last year.
We’ve seen Payton hold back rookies before — just think back to Pierre Thomas with the Saints. However, we’ve also seen him let them thrive, like with Alvin Kamara. With that in mind, Harvey looks like a boom-or-bust pick with a lot of upside.Â
I prefer to take him as my RB3 in an RB-heavy build because there’s some risk in his profile. But there’s also a ton of upside if you go with a WR-heavy draft and then grab Harvey as your RB2. If he hits, you could have a championship roster.
My overall take on Harvey is lukewarm. I’m fine with him at ADP, but I’m not pounding the table to reach on him for a round. Rookies tend to get pushed up in drafts, but I like to temper my expectations.
