The fantasy football environment is ever evolving, and the running back position may be the greatest example of that. Each year is a different animal, and that makes the ordering of them (both at the high-end and as the draft progresses) a priority as you prepare for your drafts this summer. It starts at the very top of the board with Bijan Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs, a decision that we here at PFN are split on.
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RB Fantasy Football Rankings (PPR)
1) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
The No. 1 overall pick in every 1-QB fantasy draft should be Gibbs or Bijan Robinson: there’s no wrong answer. By the time any fantasy draft gets to the third pick, both running backs should be gone.
The argument in favor of Gibbs is that he’s on the superior offense, which is why he’s able to score more even with a guy like David Montgomery by his side. With Montgomery now a Texan, the ceiling is close to incalculable.
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Isiah Pacheco was signed to fill the RB2 role. The Lions had a compelling reason to give Montgomery extended stretches of work, something that is unlikely to exist with Pacheco. His role will be more to give Gibbs a breather than to serve as Sonic’s new Knuckles. The potential exists for Gibbs to post a season that draws comparisons to 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson.
Gibbs vs. Robinson is a fun debate to have, but the answer isn’t all that important. There is no wrong answer. Take Gibbs no later than the second overall pick.
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jonathan Taylor | IND
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Saquon Barkley | PHI
6) Ashton Jeanty | LV
7) James Cook III | BUF
8) Chase Brown | CIN
9) Derrick Henry | BAL
10) Jeremiyah Love | ARI
Last season, Ashton Jeanty was the latest running back to earn top 10 draft capital in the NFL Draft. Like most top 10 drafted RBs, this earned him a borderline first round ADP in fantasy football. It did not work out with Jeanty averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game, falling well short of his 16-17 PPG ADP expectation.
Jeanty’s performance last year is highly relevant to Love because it is a major reason Love isn’t going where Jeanty went last year. Instead, Love’s ADP is at RB13 and closer to the end of the second round. A 6-8 pick difference within the first 24 picks is significant.
The Cardinals’ starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, started 12 games last season and lost 11 of them. The team’s offensive line graded out as the No. 23 OL in PFSN Impact Score. The defense was even worse, grading out at No. 29. If the Cardinals can’t sustain drives and constantly fall behind on the scoreboard, that’s not great for their running back’s fantasy value.
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Complicating things further is that Love was never really the plan. Arizona restructured James Conner’s contract to bring him back for another year. They signed Tyler Allgeier away from the Falcons to presumably be their lead back. They also roster Trey Benson and Bam Knight, who each had a stint as the lead back from last season.
Despite all of the above, Love is still a pretty good redraft bet. It all comes down to price. Here’s why that’s a bet worth making, given where he currently sits in ADP.
The following is a list of every running back drafted inside the top 10 of the NFL Draft since 2012 and their rookie season PPG:
- 2012 Trent Richardson: 17.0 PPG
- 2015 Todd Gurley: 16.0 PPG
- 2016 Ezekiel Elliott: 21.7 PPG
- 2017 Christian McCaffrey: 14.3 PPG
- 2017 Leonard Fournette: 17.7 PPG
- 2018 Saquon Barkley: 24.1 PPG
- 2023 Bijan Robinson: 14.5 PPG
- 2025 Ashton Jeanty: 14.4 PPG
Obviously, these names span almost 15 years, multiple eras of fantasy football, and had varying ADPs. But what do they have in common? Not one of them was a disaster.
Based on this historical data, Love’s floor is roughly 14 PPG. Based on his ADP, he is being drafted much closer to his floor than his ceiling. We should almost always be drafted for upside, and even on a bad Cardinals team, Love’s ceiling is 2018 Barkley.
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That 2018 Giants team was terrible. They went 5-11 and ranked 16th in points scored. Bad team. Mediocre offense. Barkley got there by catching 91 passes and scoring 15 touchdowns. In a best-case scenario, why can’t Love do something similar?
Rookie running backs with top 10 NFL Draft capital never completely fail. Love’s downside is that he falls maybe a point or two below expectation. His upside is he’s a top-five fantasy back on volume and good touchdown variance. That’s a bet worth making as long as his price doesn’t rise.
11) Kenneth Walker III | KC
12) Omarion Hampton | LAC
13) De’Von Achane | MIA
14) Breece Hall | NYJ
15) Kyren Williams | LAR
16) Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
17) Josh Jacobs | GB
18) Javonte Williams | DAL
19) D’Andre Swift | CHI
20) Cam Skattebo | NYG
21) Quinshon Judkins | CLE
22) David Montgomery | HOU
23) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
24) Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
25) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
26) Jaylen Warren | PIT
Last season, the Steelers moved on from Najee Harris and committed to Warren as their lead back. He rewarded them and fantasy managers with the best season of his career, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game.
Viewed more as a satellite back, Warren was actually the bruiser in the Steelers’ offense. He handled a career-high 211 carries and totaled nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage. Warren also scored more touchdowns (8) than in the rest of his career combined (6).
The most fascinating part of Warren’s 2025 season was how he thrived in a role no one saw coming. The prevailing belief heading into last season was that rookie third-rounder Kaleb Johnson would be the direct replacement for Harris, serving as the early down grinder, and Warren would settle into his more natural receiving back role. Instead, it was Warren as the Harris replacement and Kenneth Gainwell taking Warren’s previous role.
This led to Warren having an unexpectedly low receiving role, earning just a 9.0% target share. For context, that number was 11.9% in 2024 and 15.3% in 2023.
Even though Warren’s involvement as a receiver was limited, he was unsurprisingly still quite effective when was thrown the ball. Warren’s 1.81 yards per route run was fourth among running backs.
In general, Warren was really effective with the ball in his hands. He averaged 5.1 yards per touch, 14th in the league, and his evaded tackles per touch rate and yards created per touch both ranked inside the top 10. The talent is clearly there. But what will the role look like going forward?
27) TreVeyon Henderson | NE
28) Jadarian Price | SEA
29) Bucky Irving | TB
30) Tony Pollard | TEN
31) Kenny Gainwell | TB
32) Rico Dowdle | PIT
33) Rachaad White | WAS
34) Kyle Monangai | CHI
35) Blake Corum | LAR
36) RJ Harvey | DEN
37) Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
38) Jonathon Brooks | CAR
39) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
40) Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
41) Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
42) Jordan Mason | MIN
43) J.K. Dobbins | DEN
44) Dylan Sampson | CLE
45) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
46) Tyjae Spears | TEN
47) Woody Marks | HOU
48) Isiah Pacheco | DET
49) Tyler Allgeier | ARI
50) Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL
