Last September, Quentin Johnston seemed to be taking a huge step forward in his third season. Fantasy football managers were winning matchups on the back of his 15+ PPR points and he appeared to be the alpha of this developing offense. He, however, limped to the finish line and gave us a near replica of his 2024 stat line.
Is statistical growth to be expected from the former Horned Frog, or is another hit-and-miss season the most likely outcome for QJ?
Should You Draft Quentin Johnston in Fantasy Football?
We were so close. So, so close.
Johnston scored twice in the season opener in São Paulo and cleared 85 yards or scored in four of his five games after that. Drafted between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers in 2023, making good on that draft capital seemed like an uphill battle entering last season—but we finally had proof of concept over a decent sample size, with him leading an offense moving in a direction we liked.
Until we didn’t.
Johnston posted just a pair of top-20 finishes in the second half of last season, and both arrived long after you had lost faith in him. There was a week when he turned 10 targets into just 42 yards, and seven days later, he was held off the stat sheet altogether.
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Regression to the mean hit like a ton of bricks. We left 2025 with the exact same baseline expectation for him that we entered with, and that is simply not enough to bank on.
He turns 25 in September, making it dangerous to assume his developmental window has slammed shut; however, with 52.2% of his career games resulting in a single-digit PPR point total, it is hard to get too excited.
Factor in that he has just as many career games with fewer than two PPR points as he does with 16+ (six apiece), and investing in him over any of the primary rookie WRs—or options like Josh Downs and Jayden Reed, who watched teammates vacate targets right in front of them—becomes an even tougher sell.
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The idea of betting on a 28-year-old Justin Herbert feels comfortable. It feels like a reasonable gamble in the middle rounds, and I understand the logic of talking yourself into Johnston’s sporadic profile. Still, it is the opportunity cost hurdle that I cannot clear. The wide receiver position is as deep as it has ever been, which actively devalues players who struggle to offer consistent week-to-week production, no matter how tantalizing their single-game ceiling might be.
Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Drake London | ATL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- George Pickens | DAL
- Chris Olave | NO
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Mike Evans | SF
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Josh Downs | IND
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Jayden Reed | GB
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Alec Pierce | IND
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
- Khalil Shakir | BUF
- Romeo Doubs | NE
