Across his two NFL seasons, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, on a per-game basis, ranks sixth in reception first downs, fifth in targets, and fourth in receiving yards. It’s been evident since his 15-target debut (10 catches for 119 yards) that he is destined to be an elite player in this game for a long time and a fantasy difference maker.
He benefited this offseason from Matthew Stafford’s decision to return for a 17th season, but his running mate changed from Cooper Kupp to Davante Adams, a move that has some believing his involvement will fail to reach the elite levels that we’ve seen up to this point.
Nacua is going to be a first-round pick in most drafts. Should you feel comfortable pulling the trigger and building your team around the Rams’ WR1?
Should You Draft Puka Nacua in Fantasy?
For me, the answer is yes. You could argue that he is a Tier 1 receiver depending on how you sort through the top of the board, but regardless, it’s hard to imagine a negative return on an investment in Nacua.
He’s entering his age-24 season, owns a career catch rate just north of 69%, and was a top-15 producer at a position that can be volatile week-to-week, in six of 10 games to end last season (four top-10s over that stretch).
I was skeptical that his initial splash into the fantasy world was a little circumstantial. He walked into a featured role under professional receiver-elevator Matthew Stafford with Cooper Kupp sidelined.
I was wrong.
Very wrong.
Among the 82 WRs with 100+ targets over the past two seasons, his per-game ranks …
- Sixth in targets
- Fifth in receptions
- Fourth in receiving yards
- Second in yards per route (behind only Nico Collins)
When Stafford wants to feed his WR1, he does so, and NFL defenses have yet to prove that they have a way to take away the versatile stylings of Nacua. He had three games last year with multiple rushing attempts. Sean McVay knows that he has a queen on his chessboard, and he’s not afraid to get creative, something fantasy managers love to see.
Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/WrHPDkrki3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 8, 2025
There’s a natural development to take place here, and it’s in the scoring department. Despite the sharp route running and willingness to be physical, Nacua has just nine touchdown catches on 266 career regular-season targets.
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Is this a flaw in his profile or the result of running poorly on variance?
The answer might be “both,” but asking him to run more pure in 2025 is reasonable, given that Kupp now calls Seattle home.
From Matthew Stafford Since 2023
- Kupp: 15.3% of his targets came in the red zone
- Nacua: 10.7% of his targets came in the red zone
Maybe it was a Nacua weakness. Maybe it was a Kupp strength. Maybe it was a Stafford preference. In any event, while the Rams brought in another touchdown savant in Adams this season, Nacua now has the inside track in terms of a connection with his quarterback, which wasn’t the case prior due to the #BreakfastClub.
Nacua has been an elite fantasy producer without touchdowns, which means the sky is the limit if his usage grows in that respect. He earned a 32.9% target share during the Rams’ two-game playoff run last season. When the chips are in the middle of the table, Stafford knows where he is going and is fully aware that you have no way of stopping it.
Frank Ammirante’s Puka Nacua Fantasy Projection
Puka Nacua followed up an impressive rookie season with another strong, albeit injury-plagued year. The second-year wideout put up 79 catches for 990 yards and three touchdowns in only 11 games, averaging 90 receiving yards per game, which was higher than his first season.
Right now is the best time to draft Nacua because he’s often falling out of the first round due to Matthew Stafford’s injury concerns. However, this is less concerning because the Rams actually have a good backup quarterback now in Jimmy Garoppolo.
Remember: “Jimmy G” was at his best when playing for Kyle Shanahan. Sean McVay runs a similar scheme in Los Angeles, since he’s from the same coaching tree. That means that even if Stafford were forced to miss some time, Garoppolo would be able to keep the offense afloat.
With how strong Nacua’s track record has been in his two seasons, you have to love the value on him in the second round. I have him as a late first-rounder, so make sure to buy the dip on Nacua.
