Across his two NFL seasons, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, on a per-game basis, ranks sixth in reception first downs, fifth in targets, and fourth in receiving yards. It’s been evident since his 15-target debut (10 catches for 119 yards) that he is destined to be an elite player in this game for a long time and a fantasy difference maker.
He benefited this offseason from Matthew Stafford’s decision to return for a 17th season, but his running mate changed from Cooper Kupp to Davante Adams, a move that has some believing his involvement will fail to reach the elite levels that we’ve seen up to this point.
Nacua is going to be a first-round pick in most drafts. Should you feel comfortable pulling the trigger and building your team around the Rams’ WR1?
Should You Draft Puka Nacua in Fantasy?
For me, the answer is yes. You could argue that he is a Tier 1 receiver depending on how you sort through the top of the board, but regardless, it’s hard to imagine a negative return on an investment in Nacua.
He’s entering his age-24 season, owns a career catch rate just north of 69%, and was a top-15 producer at a position that can be volatile week-to-week, in six of 10 games to end last season (four top-10s over that stretch).
I was skeptical that his initial splash into the fantasy world was a little circumstantial. He walked into a featured role under professional receiver-elevator Matthew Stafford with Cooper Kupp sidelined.
I was wrong.
Very wrong.
Among the 82 WRs with 100+ targets over the past two seasons, his per-game ranks …
- Sixth in targets
- Fifth in receptions
- Fourth in receiving yards
- Second in yards per route (behind only Nico Collins)
When Stafford wants to feed his WR1, he does so, and NFL defenses have yet to prove that they have a way to take away the versatile stylings of Nacua. He had three games last year with multiple rushing attempts. Sean McVay knows that he has a queen on his chessboard, and he’s not afraid to get creative, something fantasy managers love to see.
Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/WrHPDkrki3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 8, 2025
There’s a natural development to take place here, and it’s in the scoring department. Despite the sharp route running and willingness to be physical, Nacua has just nine touchdown catches on 266 career regular-season targets.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Is this a flaw in his profile or the result of running poorly on variance?
The answer might be “both,” but asking him to run more pure in 2025 is reasonable, given that Kupp now calls Seattle home.
From Matthew Stafford Since 2023
- Kupp: 15.3% of his targets came in the red zone
- Nacua: 10.7% of his targets came in the red zone
Maybe it was a Nacua weakness. Maybe it was a Kupp strength. Maybe it was a Stafford preference. In any event, while the Rams brought in another touchdown savant in Adams this season, Nacua now has the inside track in terms of a connection with his quarterback, which wasn’t the case prior due to the #BreakfastClub.
Nacua has been an elite fantasy producer without touchdowns, which means the sky is the limit if his usage grows in that respect. He earned a 32.9% target share during the Rams’ two-game playoff run last season. When the chips are in the middle of the table, Stafford knows where he is going and is fully aware that you have no way of stopping it.
Mason LeBeau’s Puka Nacua Fantasy Projection
Call me a hater because this is one of the ADPs I simply do not understand. Personally, I’ve never been too high on Puka Nacua, even as he was running up his stats in 2023. I absolutely understand the upside here — 1,400 yards as a rookie is legitimately insane, and I understand I’m playing with fire by not betting on him. However, there’s just way too much working against him for my preferences.
For starters, he’s not a great health bet. He was hurt in Week One of last year and left managers holding the bag. He returned in Week Eight, but only scored as a WR10 or better twice the rest of the year. His aggressive style of play is exciting, but much like how Isiah Pacecho runs angry and suffers from it, Nacua seems like a glass cannon.
As a rookie, most of his breakout weeks came when WR Cooper Kupp was out of the lineup. The veteran was a shell of himself once Nacua returned, and now, Davante Adams enters the equation. For some reason, it’s assumed Nacua is the WR1 in this offense, but I’d expect that to be Adams if age hasn’t caught up, which it hasn’t yet.
Lastly, you’re also betting on QB Matthew Stafford to stay healthy as he currently deals with back issues. While this is always the case with receivers, you’re really doubling down both staying healthy. Despite the fact that he’s coming off an injured year and the Rams added a better WR across from him, Nacua’s ADP has risen to the first round of drafts as WR4.
This time last year, coming off an all-time rookie season, his ADP ended up a round later at WR8. He’s a fantastic player with immense upside, so I understand any hype, but for the amount of questions surrounding him, I’m shocked his ADP is this high.
