Range of outcomes is an important concept in fantasy football. We typically project players based on what is most likely to happen.
However, the way to win leagues is to draft players who outperform their ADP. That means avoiding players with limited upward mobility. Fantasy managers should avoid drafting these players, who are all being drafted at or near their ceiling.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP RB2)
Is it unfair to say a guy going inside the top-five picks of every draft is being taken at his ceiling? Probably. But just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
Saquon Barkley was otherworldly last season. He ran for over 2,000 yards, averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and posted an overall RB1 finish at 22.2Â fantasy points per game. Of course, he’s being taken in the first half of the first round. And of course, he’s being drafted at his ceiling. How can he do any better than elite RB1?
I’m calling out Barkley because I don’t see a path to him repeating last year’s production. It took him leading the league in carries with 345 and seeing a third-ranked 78.7% opportunity share to get there. It took a level of efficiency we typically do not see from players seeing this much volume.
Now, to be fair, Barkley is a special talent. We should expect him to perform far better than your typical running back would with his level of volume. The reason Barkley finds his name here, as opposed to Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, is that their ceilings, if they were to finish as overall RB1, are higher.
It took a perfect storm and a historic performance for Barkley to reach 22.2 PPG. What if Barkley is merely elite this year?
Imagine how incredible a season of 1,600 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards (more than he had last season) would be? Imagine how incredible it would be if, even with Jalen Hurts stealing every one-yard touchdown, Barkley repeated his 15 scores? That would put him just below 20 PPG.
At age 27, Saquon Barkley had 482 touches in 2024.
There have been 11 RBs to hit 400+ touches in their age 27+ season since 2004. Only 1 of them have hit 20+ PPG in the following season. LaDainian Tomlinson in 2007.
(worth noting he went from 30.2 to 20.5 PPG📉) https://t.co/zf7jSW49aS pic.twitter.com/GMZfGUpm0d
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) July 8, 2025
I am not trying to make it seem like 19-20 PPG is bad. But to win in fantasy football, we need to beat 11 other teams trying to hit that 99th percentile outcome. There is no upward mobility for Barkley, while there is for Robinson and Gibbs. Barkley has to regress, at least a little bit, whereas the other two can progress.
This is not to say you should fade Barkley. It’s merely to point out we’ve almost certainly seen his two best seasons already. Unless Hurts suddenly starts to check it down, allowing Barkley to catch more than an average of just about two balls per game, there’s nothing more he can do with his rushing volume and efficiency. It can only get worse.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (ADP WR15)
I want to preface this by saying that, of course, Garrett Wilson technically has elite WR1 upside. He has the talent to do it. However, we are assessing fantasy values within the context of the situations before us.
Perhaps Wilson is not being drafted at his absolute ceiling, but his downside is asymmetrical. We want the upside to be asymmetrical. For those unfamiliar, that simply means the best case scenario would provide a greater return on investment than the worst case scenario would be on the negative side.
MORE READING: Players Being Drafted At Their Floor In Fantasy Football — James Conner, A.J. Brown, Jakobi Meyers, and More
Wilson is your classic small-win/big-miss type player. If things break right, he could sneak into the top 12 and finish as a WR1. The fantasy community is likely correct in that Wilson’s inability to truly break out has resulted from subpar offensive schemes and bad quarterback play. Fantasy managers will be hoping for par value if it’s more of the same.
Wilson’s rookie year was objectively excellent. He amassed over 1,100 receiving yards, placing him in a bucket of wide receivers who have a hit rate of basically 100%. Wilson is obviously a talented player. With that said, we’re entering year four of his career. It is the third time his ADP is higher than anything he’s done in his career.
In 2023, we pushed Wilson to the Round 1/2 turn. He averaged 12.5 PPG. In 2024, we left him there again. He averaged 14.8 PPG. Now, in 2025, he’s the WR15, going in the third round. Is Justin Fields the guy to propel Wilson to the promised land?
Justin Fields has averaged 180 passing yards per game in contests with 80%-plus snaps.
Zach Wilson averaged 200 and 216 with 80% in 2022 and 2023.
Garrett Wilson:
2022: 23% targets, 9.1 PPG (WR5)
2023: 34% targets, 14.9 (WR2)— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 11, 2025
While it’s certainly within Wilson’s range of outcomes for this to finally be the year, Fields’ history suggests it’s unlikely. The Wilson price isn’t as expensive as the previous two years, but it’s hard to see him doing any better than around WR12.
Meanwhile, it’s easy to see how he disappoints with another middling finish in the high WR3 range. There’s way more downside than upside, despite Wilson’s obvious talent.
DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP WR21)
It’s pretty impressive how mediocre DK Metcalf has been for so many years, with fantasy managers still talking about a potential breakout. The hype has certainly cooled on him this year, compared to previous years, but we haven’t seen signs of upward mobility in a long time.
After 900 yards as a rookie in 2019, Metcalf found himself in a bucket of receivers with a very high hit rate. He looked to be on the path to superstardom after his 1,300-yard sophomore season that saw him average 17.0 PPG. It made perfect sense to draft Metcalf as a top-five wide receiver in 2021. Then, he averaged 14.4 PPG.
Fine, we can give him a mulligan. One down year. Then he did it again, posting 13.3 PPG in 2022. And again in 2023 with 14.1 PPG. At what point do we accept this is who Metcalf is?
Last season, Metcalf averaged 12.8 PPG while losing the WR1 job to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He earned a 21.3% target share and was targeted on a mere 20% of his routes run.
DK METCALF GETS WIDE OPEN FOR THE 56-YARD TD 🔥
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/Uc3L09y2th— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 15, 2024
At 27 years old, Metcalf is still firmly in his prime. But he’s a veteran wide receiver changing teams, and it’s very easy to make the case that his environment is worse. Yes, he’s no longer competing with talented receivers like “JSN” and Tyler Lockett for targets. However, his QB is a washed 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, and he plays in an offense that wants to “run the damn ball.”
Metcalf’s best season finish outside of his sophomore year is WR20. After changing teams and experiencing a downgrade in quarterback and offensive situations, we’re drafting Metcalf at… basically WR20? No, thank you.
This is another small win/big miss type player. Maybe things break right and you get a mid-WR2 season. If not, you’re hoping to hit par, with it being far more likely that everything falls apart and Metcalf has another middling WR3 season. I don’t say this lightly. Metcalf is one of the worst picks you can make in fantasy this season.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (ADP WR22)
I’ve always liked Courtland Sutton. He’s a talented player who got a raw deal in Denver between his 2020 ACL tear and miserable quarterback play. Last year, he was one of the best values in fantasy, providing 14.1 PPG while being an afterthought in drafts. Now, he’s a player to avoid.
Last season was a perfect storm for Sutton. The Broncos lacked viable receiving options behind Sutton, resulting in a 25.1% target share. Despite HC Sean Payton’s desire to run the ball, they had a 57% neutral game script pass rate, primarily due to Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estimé forming one of the least talented backfields in NFL history.
RELATED: Fantasy Football Busts for 2025 Include James Cook, Zay Flowers, and Dalton Kincaid
Amidst all the above, Sutton had a career year, catching 81 passes for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns. It got him to WR24.
Now, the Broncos spent a premium second-round pick on RJ Harvey. They signed JK Dobbins. They added Evan Engram, who has been a target hog in the past. Yet, Sutton is being drafted as the WR22.
I struggle to see the path for him to outperform his ADP at all. Meanwhile, the scenario in which he reverts to being a random WR3 is very easy to picture.
