The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Green Bay Packers players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jordan Love, QB
You can spin the numbers whatever way you want, but Jordan Love looked as comfortable on a professional football field on Sunday night as I can remember. He controlled the Steelers all night long, completed 29-of-37 passes, and made a play every time his number was called.
Did a few plays go his way?
Of course, but he put his talented teammates in a position to succeed. I found it interesting that Love recorded the second-lowest average depth of target of his season in the return of Christian Watson, but again, I think that speaks to his maturity.
If Green Bay asks Love to drop back 37 times this week like they did last, he figures to be knocking on the door of the top 5 at the position, but I tend to doubt it as a double-digit favorite.
Before Week 8, Love was averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game, and I think that’s the more likely outcome in this spot that should feature a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs.
If you have him, you’re playing him and encouraged by the long-term outlook.
Josh Jacobs, RB
His job isn’t in danger, and he ran for yet another touchdown, but Emanuel Wilson (11 carries for 61 yards) was gaining some of the tough yards for the Packers on Sunday night, not Jacobs (13 carries for 33 yards).
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I don’t think this sticks, but I’m also the person who thought this team would settle on Jayden Reed as their top target earner. I’m the person who assumed they drafted Matthew Golden with a plan.
Green Bay is pretty clearly a threat to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and maybe their distribution of responsibilities is a reason why.
Maybe not.
Jacobs is a hard-nosed running back who fits this system. He’s caught at least three passes in five of his past six games and already has nine rushing scores. Last week was a little goofy, and maybe the undrafted third-year back gets more work this week in a potential blowout spot, but when the rubber meets the road, I think you have one of the 10 best backs in the game that carries a nice combination of versatility and scoring equity.
It’s important to remember that the Packers had an early bye (Week 5) and might want to save some tread on their RB1’s tires. That’s obviously not ideal in the middle third of the season, but I expect the December version of this offense to look more like the September version (20+ touches for their RB1), and that could be what puts you over the top in your fantasy playoffs.
Romeo Doubs, WR
The good news is that Romeo Doubs saw six targets against the Steelers on Sunday night, his fourth straight game with at least that many looks. He’s recorded a catch gaining more than 15 yards in every contest this season, so there’s something to be said for his consistency in this offense, even if the ceiling gets lower weekly.
The return of Christian Watson last week creates one more downfield threat to worry about. I believe that Doubs can win in the short area at a higher rate than Watson or Dontavion Wicks types, but if we are requiring volume for him to pay the fantasy bills, I worry, given the nature of this offense.
Tucker Kreft isn’t going away, and Jayden Reed will be back at some point. Combine those facts with the hard-nosed running of Jacobs, and I think it’s very possible that there isn’t a single Packer WR we are comfortable starting come Thanksgiving.
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For now, I think you can get away with using “offensive upside” as an excuse for playing Doubs as a low-end flex. We know he is a capable player with the ball in his hands, and with Love locked in, this 6-8 target role is going to be good for 10+ PPR points far more often than not.
Tucker Kraft, TE
The new PPR TE1 this season is coming off a monster Sunday night performance in which he turned 15.7 expected PPR points into 33.3 real-life points (7-143-2).
Love played as composed a game as I’ve seen from him this season, taking what he viewed as the safest option and letting his talented teammates do the work.
That’ll play!
Tucker Kraft averaged over nine yards post-catch for the fifth time in his past six games. While the pending return of Jayden Reed (timetable still TBD) could eat into some of those short targets (2.5 aDOT against the Steelers last week with five catches coming on balls thrown less than five yards downfield), he’s a fixture of this offense.
Green Bay is going to rely on Jacobs most weeks, but the presence of Kraft as a pseudo-running back with the ball in his hands makes them the rare conservative offense that can be explosive.
Combine that with Christian Watson looking awfully healthy, and it’s not hard to see this Packers offense being a top-5 unit for the next two months, a scoring atmosphere that would give Kraft a real shot at holding onto the TE crown.