The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Green Bay Packers players heading into their matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jordan Love, QB
Entering the season, I was hopeful that the stability of Jordan Love would help elevate at least one of his receivers to the weekly fantasy conversation.
Instead, he’s been infected with their inconsistencies, something that I was unaware was contagious.
Love has finished with under 190 passing yards twice this season while clearing 290 in the other two. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue (with an over 72% completion rate in three of four) as much as the volume risk.
-
Week 1 vs. Lions: 22 pass attempts
-
Week 2 vs. Commanders: 31 pass attempts
-
Week 3 at Browns: 25 pass attempts
-
Week 4 at Cowboys: 43 pass attempts
I’m confident in Love this week because I’m confident in anyone who is on an NFL roster facing the Bengals, but I’ll admit that I worry about these peaks and valleys as the season progresses.
If you asked me to take a positive or negative stance on Love for the remainder of 2022, I’d lean toward the former because I trust him in scoring position. Over his past 27 games, Love has completed 66.4% of his red zone passes with 41 scores against just two interceptions.
Neither the Bears nor the Ravens scares me defensively right now, and those two make up three of Green Bay’s last four games this fantasy season.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs has one finish this season better than RB18, and that’s disappointing based on the price you paid, but I’m not close to panicking, and the “vs. CIN” part of things can never be overlooked, as this game carries series game script potential for a rested Packers team at home.
Green Bay has given its lead back at least 20 touches in every game this season, a level of work that ranks him among the elite. Last season, Jacobs produced 10.1% over expectations, and so far this season, he’s 4.8% under.
That sort of thing can even out with time, and I have no problem labeling him as an RB1 for the rest of the season with top 5 positional potential for this week specifically.
Matthew Golden, WR
We get spoiled by rookie receivers that burst onto the scene right away. There are a select few that enter the NFL as polished prospects, and those are the ones we remember, but the vast majority of players take time to develop.
Matthew Golden has reached double-digit PPR points in consecutive games and has seen his expected point total increase during each of his first four career games.
He’s not going to be rookie season Brian Thomas Jr., but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an impactful piece as the weather begins to turn. Golden has seen a target with over 25 air yards attached to it in three straight, and while the target distribution in Green Bay is annoying, it also limits the amount of attention that can be paid to any one player.
If you’re chasing points after Thursday night or even after the first wave of games on Sunday, plugging in a profile like that of Golden is a reasonable play.
The range of outcomes is going to be wide weekly, but the upside is worthy of your attention when in advantageous spots like this.
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
Tucker Kraft, TE
Have you ever been more confident through four games in a season (Week 5 bye) in a player who has one finish better than 15th at the position?
Tucker Kraft looked like one of the five best options at the position during the Week 2 beatdown of the Commanders in an island game, but he has just 16.5 PPR points since, leaving those committed to him a bit underwhelmed.
Stay the course.
He caught all five of his targets against the Cowboys in Week 4, and with a little fortune, two of them ended in touchdowns.
This is still going to be a big season, potentially a very big season.
The Packers still lack a true WR1, and that is why Kraft is running a route on over 80% of Love’s dropbacks each week. Green Bay has been leveraging his YAC skills over the past two games (0.0 aDOT), and I think that elevates his floor in a serious way to complement the ceiling that comes with his ability to run those seam routes.
If the Kraft manager is willing to part ways with him at the price of anything but a lineup lock, I think you pounce and pounce fast. This buying window won’t last long.
