Should I Draft Omarion Hampton? Fantasy Outlook for the Chargers RB in 2025

The second RB selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, how high is Chargers rookie Omarion Hampton's fantasy ceiling?

The Los Angeles Chargers were widely expected to draft a running back. Even after signing Najee Harris, they spent a first-round selection on Omarion Hampton. Clearly their RB1 of the future, what can fantasy football managers expect from the rookie in 2025?

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Should You Draft Omarion Hampton in Fantasy?

If you look at Hampton’s sophomore and junior seasons, you might think you’re seeing double. He averaged exactly 5.9 yards per carry and scored 15 rushing touchdowns in both.

Hampton led the ACC in rushing yards for two straight seasons with rushing totals of 1,504 and 1,660 yards. He’s also a solid receiver, amassing 601 yards on 67 receptions over his final two years at North Carolina. With 20+ carries in seven games, Hampton has the durability to handle large workloads.

At 6’0″, 221 pounds, Hampton has ideal size for a lead back. His 4.46 40-time gives him a 93rd-percentile speed score. The lack of targets for running backs in Greg Roman’s offenses dings Hampton slightly. But we’re talking about a 22-year-old running back with a three-down skill set in a good offense.

Last season, the Chargers weren’t as run-heavy as you might think. They had a 56% neutral game script pass rate, which was 15th in the league. Yet, Justin Herbert only averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game.

By way of comparison, Herbert did not average below 39 attempts per game across his first three seasons. That number fell to 35 per game in 2023. But under 30? For Justin Herbert? Conventional wisdom suggests this means the Chargers ran the ball a ton. It was actually something else.

Under Harbaugh, the Chargers play extremely slow. They were the slowest team in the league in neutral game script, averaging 30.7 seconds per snap. That was 0.4 seconds slower than the next slowest team, and a staggering 4.0 seconds behind the league’s fastest team.

Regardless of whether we’re investing in an NFL team’s run or pass game, we want them to play faster because more plays run are better for fantasy. With the Chargers being such a slow-paced team, Hampton will need to be the team’s clear lead back. I expect that to happen. The question is when.

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Najee Harris isn’t going to be irrelevant. It wouldn’t surprise me if he opened the season as the starter. He will play. The hope with Hampton is that he makes himself undeniable.

Typically, there is deference shown to veterans while rookies have to earn their spot. However, due to Harris’ unfortunate Fourth of July incident, he has yet to practice at training camp as of the first week of August.

Given that it’s a matter of when, not if, Hampton takes over, Harris’ absence only serves to expedite the process. At this juncture, we have no idea when Harris might return, or if he will even be ready for opening day.

Even though Harris is the veteran, he’s not the incumbent. He’s just as new to the Chargers as the rookie. While Hampton shows coaches what he can do, Harris is merely watching. What could have been a 1a/1b situation may be a starter/backup situation very quickly if Harris remains sidelined and Hampton shows out.

In 2024, the Chargers ran the ball 60.4% of the time in goal-to-go situations. That was the eighth-highest rate in the league. Their overall red zone pass rate was just 47.1%. There’s scoring opportunity here for the rookie if he can secure the goal line back role.

The touchdowns won’t merely be a bonus, though. Hampton will need them. Despite being a capable receiver, there’s very little receiving upside in an offense that targeted its running backs at an 11.8% clip last season. Only the Rams were lower.

With all that in mind, we play to win the game. More importantly, we play for the second half of the season. We don’t care if Hampton starts slow as long as he finishes strong.

Last season, JK Dobbins averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game. He and Gus Edwards combined for 13 rushing touchdowns. Hampton is a lot more talented than Dobbins and Edwards.

Due to Harris’ injury, Hampton has shot up rankings and ADP boards. I have completely bought in. Hampton is my RB12, ahead of the likes of Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, and James Cook, all of whom most have above him. I am three spots ahead of his RB15 ADP. I fully endorse selecting Hampton in the middle of the third round or later.

Frank Ammirante’s Omarion Hampton Fantasy Projection

Omarion Hampton is an intriguing first-round rookie who is set to lead the Chargers backfield, especially with Najee Harris recovering from an eye injury. However, it feels like the fantasy community has gotten a bit too excited about this flashy new toy.

The former Tar Heels standout’s ADP has crept up to the early third round, where the opportunity cost is too high. You can take more proven players like Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, and more.

This is going to be a committee backfield. Even with Hampton leading the way, there’s limited receiving upside with Greg Roman calling plays. This is an offensive coordinator who has continuously suppressed RB receiving production, dating back to as far as Frank Gore when Alex Smith was quarterback for the 49ers.

Add in the fact that stud offensive tackle Rashawn Slater is now out for the season, and you can see why I’m steering clear of Hampton. This run-blocking group got a lot weaker in Slater’s absence, which could affect Hampton’s overall efficiency.

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