Nico Collins has quietly produced at a WR1 level for 3 straight seasons and still cannot seem to get the fantasy community fully on board. The Houston offense keeps getting cited as the reason to stay away. The numbers say that concern has been overstated all along. Fantasy managers may be looking at one of the best values on the board.
Should You Draft Nico Collins in Fantasy Football?
My answer for 2026 is going to be yes. I’m in on Collins, but that’s nothing new. I had him ranked as my No. 1 overall receiver a season ago. That didn’t pan out, and I’ve been accused of being stubborn. Guess what? I’m stubborn. I think he’s going to be great. I think he is great.
I don’t have him ranked as WR1. Maybe that was a little aggressive. I’ll give you that. Maybe C.J. Stroud’s not an MVP candidate. I’ll give you that. But he’s worth a pick in the late second round or early third round, which is where he’s going on average as of early September.
You’re looking at a guy for whom availability is an issue, and I understand that. Durability is a little bit of a concern there. You’re not doing me any good if you’re off the field. I completely understand that. If you want to fade him, fine. Play in a league with me. I’ll draft him. We can be on our way and agree to disagree in that regard.
I don’t think there’s any question about the ability here. Since 2023, you’re looking at a guy who is second in yards per route run, the most predictive metric there is for the wide receiver position. Only Puka Nacua over the last 3 seasons has been better. He’s been good for half a dozen touchdowns in all of those seasons. He’s going to get it done when he’s on the field. You’re not playing him when he sits. You get replacement-level production, so you only have to worry about the good. I’m not sweating the bet at a high level when it comes to Nico.
Jayden Higgins, we already know, is out for the year with the torn ACL. Not that Collins needed target competition to loosen up, but it has. Kayshon Boutte comes in and is going to offer a viable deep threat on the other side of the field, which at least keeps defenses honest.
I’m not mad about it. I didn’t change my Collins ranking because Boutte was added to the mix here. I think Higgins is probably a better player in the long run, but it is what it is. There’s no real concern here when it comes to his ability to make those targets and pay him off.
I get the concern. It’s a great defense. David Montgomery was brought in to stabilize the running game, so maybe they try to win games 20-17. If that’s the case, fine. You can pass on Collins all you want, but if it’s 20-17, you know what? They scored at least 2 touchdowns.
I think Nico is going to be in for a big year. Double-digit touchdowns this season elevate him into my top 10 at the wide receiver position. I’m taking him a lot in early round 3, where I go running back, running back early, or running back, receiver, and I want to get a build that way in a three-receiver format.
There are a lot of ways to go there. You can take risk-averse guys later. Get Tony Pollard in round 7 or 8. Go that route. Stabilize your offense that way. I’m going to aim for some upside here. Collins in round 3. Sounds good to me. Chef’s kiss on Collins.
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Nico Collins’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
This is the beauty of Week 1 content: we get a lot of prep time. Some would argue that it means we have time to overthink things and develop noisy trends, and for those people, I recommend you look away from this one.
Collins has never scored 16 PPR points in a loss that didn’t come outside of the division.
I don’t think that’s predictive as much as interesting, but my job is to present my findings.
For his career, his PPR PPG dips by 42.5% when Houston is an underdog versus when they are favored, and that is something I’d be more likely to hang my hat on if I were looking to fade Collins in the DFS streets this week (you’re overdoing it if you’re having serious thoughts about sitting him in any season-long format).
I’m of the belief that Collins isn’t far off of the “elite” tier in terms of talent, and Stroud is good enough to get us the spike season we’ve been waiting for. In 2025, we saw alpha targets gash this Buffalo secondary for 27+ points (Drake London, Zay Flowers, and Tee Higgins), and while that’s not my projection, I do like this being one of the few offenses that could put the Texans in a spot to be more aggressive on the offensive side of things.
Collins is a WR1 this week for me, no lower than a strong WR2 if you’re entering this season with a wait-and-see approach for this offense as a whole.
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Where Collins Ranks Among 2026 Wide Receivers
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- Drake London | ATL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- George Pickens | DAL
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Chris Olave | NO
- Zay Flowers | BAL
Compare him against the rest of the board in PFN’s Full PPR Wide Receiver Rankings.
