If you were going to create a fantasy football receiver in a lab, you might get accused of copying God’s work, as the human you design may mirror the traits of Nico Collins.
Fantasy Football Ace: Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
His athleticism grades out well for any size, so when you add in a 6-4 frame that tips the scales at 222 pounds, you’ve got a near-unguardable player. Mix in a franchise quarterback and a lack of target competition, and it’s possible that it is impossible to overpay for the pleasure of acquiring Collins in redraft formats this season.
And yes, I know the meaning of “literally”. He’s in that 1.01 conversation for me, and I think he should be for you as well.
“2025 Nico Collins is 2024 Ja’Marr Chase”
That might seem a bit hyperbolic – that is, until you evaluate the profiles:
“PFN + Spots”: What did fantasy managers like as much as anything about Ja’Marr Chase in 2024?
It was game flow. The Bengals were constantly pushed and constantly scoring. Whether it was the result of an elite QB on the other sideline or a struggling defense lining up across from Chase himself, Cincinnati was seemingly in a good spot to produce for all of 2024.
Not every season is the same, but there is some level of predictability year-over-year with these teams. Some improve, some regress, but the year prior is typically a good place to start. I’m defining a PFN + Spot as a game that comes against EITHER a top-10 quarterback in terms of QB+ or a defense that ranked 20th or worse in Defense+.
Chase was in 11 such spots last season, and, using 2024 data, Collins is set to walk into 11 such spots in 2025.
Watch the @HoustonTexans swarm @lbg_nico7 on this TD. #TBvsHOU pic.twitter.com/V1nWXDqpMq
— NFL (@NFL) August 29, 2021
Are you not entertained?
Chase was the most common Flex player (RB/WR/TE) on ESPN finalist rosters a season ago, a title that I suspect Collins could hold for this upcoming season. I will grant you that what we saw from C.J. Stroud in 2024 was discouraging, but that was the case for Joe Burrow entering last season as well (on top of a nagging injury that had us worried throughout the entire summer).
Nitpicking first-round picks is a fool’s errand this far ahead of time. For the most part, we are talking about a star-driven league, and most players in the first round discussion are going to be productive. That said if I had to raise a concern for the other five receivers in my top tier …
- Chase: Scoring opportunity regression – 20% of targets last year came in the red zone (Years 1-3: 13.2%)
- Puka Nacua: Physical style brings in injury concern, not sold that Cooper Kupp is cooked
- Justin Jefferson: Potential QB change with an emerging WR2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Catch rate regression (81.6% in 2024 was a career-high) with Jared Goff taking a step back
- CeeDee Lamb: Efficiency with Dak Prescott has dipped in consecutive seasons
By no means am I saying that drafting a Tier 1 receiver is going to sink your roster or that Collins is a lock to outproduce them all. Neither of those things is true, but we need to make stands at the top of the board, these are the decisions we KNOW we will be faced with whereas who your favorite player in Round 6 might not end up being a position you are put in on draft day, and this is the hill in which I’m standing.
