The entire premise behind this article is why fantasy football should not be played in Week 18. Nevertheless, there is one more slate of games and, at the very least, there’s DFS, player props, and a number of other ways this week could matter.
As NFL teams gear up for the postseason (or the offseason), we will not see every team give its full effort in the final game of the season. Here is everything you need to know about what teams are playing for in Week 18.
Teams Resting Starters
Historically, NFL head coaches have not cared about the difference between the No. 3 or No. 4 seeds, or the difference between any of the Wild Card seeds. Coaches will have their teams play for the bye, the possibility of two home games, or the division — anything else, and they tend to prefer giving their guys a week off.
The Los Angeles Chargers cannot be anything other than the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Head coach Jim Harbaugh already stated that Trey Lance will start in place of Justin Herbert. We should expect other key players, like Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston, to rest as well.
The Green Bay Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed (again). Head coach Matt LaFleur already said they will rest starters. Jordan Love definitely won’t play, and I wouldn’t expect Malik Willis to go either. Clayton Tune should get the start. He will likely hand the ball off to Chris Brooks and throw to the likes of Matthew Golden and Bo Melton.
Teams Playing To Win
The Denver Broncos won’t have to exert much effort to win this week, as they are facing the aforementioned Chargers, who are not playing starters. But they do need a win to lock up the No. 1 overall seed. They will play everyone.
The New England Patriots still have a shot at the AFC’s top seed, but we can be pretty confident head coach Mike Vrabel knows the Broncos are not losing to the Chargers’ backups. However, the Patriots still need to win to avoid potentially falling to the No. 3 seed. We will see Drake Maye and the entire starting unit on Sunday.
The Jacksonville Jaguars need a win to clinch the AFC South. They can get there with a Texans’ loss as well, but they are not about to rest anyone.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens play on Sunday Night Football to determine the AFC North winner and the No. 4 seed. Obviously, they will be playing to win.
The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks for not just the NFC West crown, but the No. 1 overall seed. Both teams will be playing to win.
The Chicago Bears will be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Head coach Ben Johnson comes from the Dan Campbell coaching tree. Campbell doesn’t play starters in the preseason and rests them in meaningless games. However, this is far from meaningless. The difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed is two guaranteed home games. The Bears will play to win.
The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers do battle to see which one of them will be the worst team in the league to make the playoffs this year. Evidently, someone has to win the NFC South. The outcome of this game won’t matter if the Atlanta Falcons defeat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday (the Panthers would get in regardless), but since these teams play on Saturday, both of them will be trying.
Teams With Uncertain Motivation
The Buffalo Bills will be a Wild Card team. In the past, head coach Sean McDermott has not cared about seeding. The Bills can theoretically finish as high as the No. 5 seed. Will they care? McDermott told reporters he is currently weighing his options.
The Bills are undoubtedly aware that the Chargers are resting starters, which means they are sure to lose. That means if the Bills win, they would move up to the No. 6 seed. They are also aware that the Indianapolis Colts are starting Riley Leonard on the road in Houston, making the Texans very likely to win and putting the No. 5 seed out of reach.
There’s also the added issue of Josh Allen’s foot. The Bills’ odds of winning the Super Bowl drop to 0% without Allen. Is the difference between the No. 6 and No. 7 seed worth not giving Allen a week off? I highly doubt it. Plus, the Bills can probably beat the New York Jets with Mitch Trubisky anyway.
The Philadelphia Eagles will either be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Their path to the No. 2 seed involves the Bears losing at home to the Detroit Lions. While the Lions are certainly capable of winning, it’s hard to imagine them fully motivated after being eliminated from postseason contention last week.
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This looks like a situation where head coach Nick Sirianni might open with the starters and do some scoreboard watching. If the Eagles fall behind early to the Washington Commanders, he may pull the starters. If the Bears go up big on the Lions, he may pull the starters.
We saw a similar scenario play out last season when Commanders head coach Dan Quinn started his guys in Week 18, but yanked them after they fell behind early and saw that even winning wasn’t going to do them any good.
Update:Â Sirianni said the Eagles will rest starters. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert won’t play.
The Los Angeles Rams are coming off consecutive losses for the first time all season. Head coach Sean McVay told reporters he is not happy with the way they played and that they need to be better. He said starters would play.
The Rams will be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, but there’s a significant wrinkle to the schedule this week. For the Rams to have any shot at the No. 5 seed, they need Seattle to defeat San Francisco. That game is on Saturday, meaning the Rams will know the outcome. If the 49ers win, the Rams are locked into the No. 6 seed.
We have already seen the Rams in a situation where they could improve their playoff seeding, but not earn a guaranteed home game. McVay rested starters.
This year, there is value in securing the No. 5 seed, if possible, as playing the NFC South winner is akin to a bye. But if the 49ers win on Saturday, color me skeptical that the coach who never plays anyone even remotely relevant in meaningless games will suddenly put his starters at risk. At best, McVay might put them out there for a couple of drives to “see the ball go through the hoop” after Monday night’s struggles before pulling them by halftime.
