Every NFL Sunday brings chaos, and fantasy football just raises the stakes. You know the matchups, you’ve seen the headlines, but there’s more going on beneath the surface than box scores and highlight reels. This week’s breakdown leans into those hidden angles that could swing your lineup in either direction.

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs LV)

A third straight loss for the Eagles saw them fail to clear 21 points, even with the benefit of overtime, for a fifth straight game.

You’d think that I’d be bringing you some spicy A.J. Brown quote as a result, but there was no one to point the finger at. There has been some petulance from Mr. Inner Excellence this season. Still, in a game where a catchable pass bounced off his hands for an interception and a perfectly placed deep ball slipped through in the end zone, Brown’s fourth straight double-digit target outing felt strangely hollow — even as he topped 100 receiving yards for the fourth time this season.

For fantasy, I’m not too worried about the results of the Eagles (+27% target share with an end-zone look in each of the three consecutive losses). But there is no denying that the vibes in Philly are off and that introduces a level of weekly risk that can’t be quantified.

He’s a top 10 play for me in this plus-spot: this offseason is going to be an interesting one.

Alec Pierce | IND (at SEA)

Alec Pierce was scripted into the plan last week against the Jags with three targets on the first six throws of the game (two catches for 26 yards), and when I made that note on Sunday, it was meant to drive him home as a potential DFS shot play this week in a tough matchup.

Pierce is a solid player, even with a somewhat limited skill set. If he is going to be prioritized, we are looking at many bites at the big play apple, and that’s what we need to feel good about him.

Then Daniel Jones got injured, and the math changed.

It should be noted that he had a nice 29-yard grab from Riley Leonard last week as the QB created time with his legs and Pierce found space. Still, for a player like this who was running hot (the only qualified WRs averaging more fantasy points per catch this season are Davante Adams, Tee Higgins, and Jameson Williams), a change under center is the last thing you want to see.

Seattle ranks in the top 6 in completion percentage, yards per pass, and interception rate when defending the deep pass. Pierce is an auto-bench for me this week, given the unknown that comes with the QB change.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at LAR)

It looked and sounded like Amon-Ra St. Brown was going to sit last week. The newser with Dan Campbell coming out of Thanksgiving framed the injury as non-serious but impactful. His taking Week 14 off with extended rest ahead of Week 15 made all the sense in the world.

The low-ankle sprain didn’t appear to limit him in any capacity in the win over the Cowboys, and you’re safe to assume that you have an elite asset for the playoff push.

Detroit funneled the first pass of the game in his direction, and he apparently passed the needed eye test: he went on to post his 10th target share of at least 28% of the season. St. Brown is having the second-best yards per route season of his tremendous career, combining a career-high aDOT while sustaining his impressive YAC numbers.

No player has more catches since he entered the league in 2021 (511), and you should be thrilled about banking on him the rest of the way with Detroit fighting tooth and nail.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs NYJ)

We are at the point in the program where small victories are big victories.

What I mean is that we can play Brian Thomas, and that’s better than where we were for most of this season. It’s not a “big” victory because he’s not close to the asset that we thought we were getting when we spent up on him in August, but he’s startable now that he’s produced over PPR expectations in three straight games.

Trevor Lawrence hit him for gains of 18 and 39 yards in the first quarter last week against the Colts, a sign that there is an effort being made to keep him happy. Of course, one catch the rest of the way wasn’t ideal, but 89 yards on a target share nearing 20% is good enough.

We take what we can get.

Jakobi Meyers remains my top-ranked Jag WR this week. Still, we know that it’s Thomas that holds the edge in per-target upside, and why would spunky Jacksonville not explore that upside against a Jets team that, somehow, has yet to fall into an interception this season?

The avoidance of the deep pass in the modern NFL is due in large part to the math: the turnover probability outweighs the catch probability in a lot of instances. But when the math changes, and it does when you’re playing the Jets, so does the playcalling.

I think we get something like what we saw last week: 6-8 shots that result in a few big plays, and that’s enough for him to squeak into the low-end WR2 tier for me in Week 15.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs MIN)

CeeDee Lamb opened the week in concussion protocol, and all reports suggest that he’s making his way through it in an efficient manner.

He, of course, benefits from having last played on Thursday night, and with the extended work week, I’m operating under the assumption that we will have him at full speed this week against the Vikes.

He was torching the Lions last week before departing (6-121-0 on just 25 routes). While Minnesota can have success against WRs, we have seen a few high-end talents gash them (DeVonta Smith scored 33.3 PPR points against them back in Week 7, while DK Metcalf, Ladd McConkey, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all put up 18+ points in this matchup).

At this moment, I have zero hesitations about labeling Lamb as a top 5 receiver that has the potential to swing your matchup with a standout performance.

Chimere Dike | TEN (at SF)

Chimere Dike has earned at least seven targets and scored in two of his past three games, impressive performances at face value, but even more when you consider the competition (Seahawks and Browns).

The fourth-round rookie seems to be trusted by Cam Ward, and that’s huge for his long-term outlook. In the Week 15 discussion, however, I can’t swallow the risk that comes with betting on this offense to chase marginal upside.

Dike has reached 45 receiving yards just twice this season, and despite the recent positive signs, 8.4 yards per catch is a tough sell in an inefficient offense.

Chris Olave | NO (vs CAR)

Chris Olave continues to play through this back injury, and while his 3-30-0 stat line last week wasn’t what you had in mind (his worst showing of the year), he and Tyler Shough had a shot at connecting on a splash pass to open the game.

If that’s connected, it’s a different story.

That, naturally, is the risk you take in playing a receiver with a rookie QB. All in all, Shough has played above my admittedly low expectations this season, and Olave’s 28.2% target share is worthy of our trust.

The Panthers have allowed an opposing WR score at least 30% over his season average in nine of their past 10 games (Jauan Jennings and Davante Adams most recently), a trend that I like to spill over to New Orleans’ clear-cut WR1, who went 5-104-1 against them a month ago.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs ARI)

I think the Texans want Christian Kirk to be what Keenan Allen is to the Chargers: a veteran receiver who shows up for the critical downs/moments.

I’m not starting Allen with confidence, and he’s better at the role, so I’m certainly not interested in Kirk for the remainder of this season.

The 29-year-old has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past five games, and with the emergence of Jayden Higgins, there really is no motivation for this team to prioritize Kirk’s involvement.

If he’s sitting at the end of your bench for some reason, that roster spot is better off spent on a player who is one injury away from a significant role or even a D/ST with a specific matchup you like over the next few weeks.

Christian Watson | GB (at DEN)

CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown.

I could keep going, but at some point I’ll lose your attention. Those are receivers who have scored fewer PPR points than Christian Watson since Week 11. He’s the sixth-highest scoring player at the position (total points) over that stretch as he’s turned 92 routes into 17 catches for 264 yards and five touchdowns.

Scoring variance has been in his favor, and while that is likely to regress (though he is making a habit of scoring on a high percentage of his receptions), it’s the 26.5% target share that has my attention.

Jordan Love is showing no hesitation in calling his number vertically, and I think the Packers knew that these soft long passes were within their QB’s skill set; they just thought that Matthew Golden would be the speedster most likely to be running under them.

Last weekend against the Bears, Love noticed Watson one-on-one with a safety and simply lobbed the ball into vacated space, telling his receiver to win the foot race to a spot.

Easy game.

He coasted into the end zone on that play and continued his red-hot run. This week, of course, carries more risk. Jayden Reed is a week healthy and figures to be a focal point due to avoiding the Patrick Surtain matchup.

That said, while Watson will line up across from the reigning DPOY, there’s a decent chance that Love looks his way on the chances he gets when not locking horns with the best corner in the sport.

For me, you’re playing with fire here. If I’m confident in my starting lineup and rounding it out with a flex, I’d prefer to go the safer route with a Khalil Shakir type. If you’re the last team in the playoffs and trying to knock off a 13-1 powerhouse, I have no issue in running Watson out there: he’s healthy, and we know that he is capable of racking up points in a hurry when that’s the case, even in a tough spot.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs IND)

Cooper Kupp scored his second touchdown of the season last week against the Falcons and continues to run ahead of Rashid Shaheed in terms of raw totals. Still, he earned two fewer targets on five more routes than the burner, and this situation is begging to flip after Shaheed took a kick to the house last week.

I don’t think there’s upside in playing Kupp this week, a game that I expect Seattle to control from start to finish, and I don’t think the former fantasy great even needs to be rostered at this point.

The Seahawks operate in a low-volume offense, and I’m not sold that a second pass catcher holds value … and I’d argue that Kupp is fourth among them in terms of likelihood to hit your lineup.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs GB)

It’s been a rather unique season for Courtland Sutton. After a hot start, he was being pushed by Troy Franklin for WR1 duties on this team, but Denver seemed to shift priority at the bye, and last week, we saw Sutton post his second-highest targets share of the season (27.8%).

He was scripted into the plan (two catches for 22 yards on the first drive), and it was clear that the Raiders really didn’t have an answer for him. It was his sixth game with over 100 air yards, and if you catch Bo Nix on the right day, that gives him a top 15 ceiling.

That’s the catch.

It’s hard to feel good about the QB play consistently. He completed seven-of-11 passes when under pressure last week, and that was great, but what does it mean?

He was 13-of-38 in such spots the three weeks prior, with three of those off-target passes being intercepted, two in the first meeting with the Raiders (the same opponent he was efficient against over this past weekend).

I don’t trust it.

Sean Payton clearly wants Pat Bryant to be involved, and Denver is going to want to make this an ugly one-score game. We could see a shallow passing plan in an effort to protect Nix from himself, and if that’s the case, we know there’s a floor to fear (better than WR30 just twice since a productive Week 7).

Sutton is a low-end PPR flex for me this week. He’s someone you feel obligated, not excited, to play.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs WAS)

Darius Slayton found paydirt against the Patriots on Monday night before the Giants went on bye, his first score of the season, but not something that I’m buying into at any level.

His 14.6-yard aDOT comes preloaded with a wide range of weekly outcomes, but we really haven’t been paid off with the big day to pay off for the down ones (yet to reach 15 PPR points in a game and held under five points four times).

New York’s big-play threat has been held under eight expected PPR points in eight of 10 games and doesn’t have a touch in the red zone since Week 3: I have nothing against taking a shot on a one-trick pony, but I have a problem with doing it irresponsibly, and right now, that’s what Slayton is.

Davante Adams | LAR (vs DET)

Davanate Adams is kind of like peak Derrick Henry these days in that you chase the strong mean and upside cases, understanding that a dud will be sprinkled in every now and again.

For Henry, the game script was the deciding factor. When his team was trailing, he was at risk. For Adams, it’s more random.

No one in the NFL has proven capable of slowing him down inside the red zone consistently, but when the Rams strike for three touchdowns of 28+ yards, there’s only so much he can do.

Even in a week where he failed to score, the future Hall of Famer earned a pair of end zone targets: he wasn’t far off from getting you the stat line you were expecting. He gets the 10th-worst red zone defense in the league this week and will again lead the position in terms of TD equity.

I don’t like betting on touchdowns with my WR2 slot, but outliers exist, and Adams is certainly one of them.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at NYG)

Deebo Samuel seems to carry a similar role no matter the state of this offense (5-8 targets in seven straight games), and that would be great if we had any reason to trust this passing game.

But we don’t.

He’s reached 65 receiving yards in just one of those games and has now been held under 30 in four of them. This offense lacks creativity and balance, and that’s going to make life hard on the receivers, something we saw with Samuel posting a 1.2-yard aDOT in Minnesota last week.

He’s a strong YAC player, but with so much traffic around the line of scrimmage, he’s not really being put in a position to succeed in a meaningful way.

Could that change against the G-Men?

In theory, it’s not too bad of a matchup, but they are a top-10 unit in terms of YPA allowed on those short passes, the role Samuel is basically pigeon-holed into these days. There’s comfort in knowing that the opportunity count has a reasonable floor, but without much upside equity, he’s still hovering around WR30 in my Week 15 PPR ranks, making him a flex option at best.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs BUF)

It’s been more than a month since a target to DeMario Douglas last hit the ground, and that’s usually a great sign, but when efficiency at that level isn’t met with a role extension, it tells you all you need to know.

Only three times has Douglas reached a 14% target share in a game this season, and that’s not a role that is even close to interesting. Drake Maye is playing great, and the Patriots are winning at a high level: do we really think that they use the bye week to scheme up more work for a slot option in Douglas that offers little upside?

Doubt it.

Stefon Diggs is the WR1 in this offense, Hunter Henry is a consistent asset, and the other secondary pass catchers offer significantly more upside. I think Douglas outscores Kyle Williams more weeks than not moving forward, but if you are looking for a spike play or two, the rookie is the flier to take simply based on how he is used (one catch from him could be worth what four of Douglas are).

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs LV)

I watched Monday Night Football, then watched it again before writing this article because I couldn’t, for the life of me, remember DeVonta Smith getting eight targets in the overtime loss.

Upon further review, he did get there, but it speaks volumes about their potential that, in a standalone spot, I couldn’t recall more than a handful of them.

In total, he caught four balls for 37 yards, 28 of which came on what was pretty much the only play I remembered from him before the second watch. He’s scoring once a month, and that’s not nearly enough to offset the recent inefficiencies (20 catches on 39 targets over his past five games).

The Raiders rank outside of the top 20 in both pressure rate and opponent passer rating, thus giving this Eagles passing attack yet another opportunity to get things moving in the right direction. There is a wide range of outcomes to consider here, but Smith has proven himself worthy of our trust in the past, and if you believe that Philadelphia can push 30 points in this game, I think you’re playing Smith everywhere that you have him.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs CLE)

Rome Odunze (foot) missed last week’s huge game at Lambeau, and yet, he finished the week with more receiving yards than DJ Moore.

The veteran receiver turned three targets into -4 yards and really hasn’t looked comfortable in this Ben Johnson offense this season, outside of a blip here and there.

Even with Odunze’s struggles, it’s clear that he’s ahead of Moore in the pecking order of this offense, a claim that I’m comfortable in making about both rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) as well. Cole Kmet remains a factor, and the running backs are operating at a high level, so where exactly are a handful of targets for Moore going to come from?

This is a tough matchup, but this isn’t a matchup thing. Moore isn’t being prioritized by his own team, and I don’t have time for that in a win-or-now spot: you should feel free to move on in all formats.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs MIA)

Stomach pains resulted in DK Metcalf spending time in a Baltimore hospital last week after he put on a clinic (7-1480, his second-best game of the season).

Earlier this week, Mike Tomlin expressed optimism in his WR1’s availability for this week, so I’ll take him at his word and assume that we are good to go.

Maybe Arthur Smith was playing the long game: Pittsburgh dialed up a deep shot to Metcalf for a 53-yard gain on their first drive last week, something that we had seen essentially none of during the first three months of the season.

It was great to see, but an outlier week followed by a hospital trip, even if minor, isn’t exactly something I view as sticky. Metcalf has held under 50 receiving yards in five straight games before Week 14’s explosion, and it’s not like those were top-notch defenses shutting him down (Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Bears, and Bills).

He’s a flex play and nothing more. I still have questions about the upside of this offense, and that means he falls into the Justin Jefferson/Michael Pittman tier, where I think the talent is greater than the situation.

Can they overcome it? Of course. Am I confident that they have a realistic path to the top 20 production? Not so much.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at DEN)

Yep, checks out.

Dontayvion Wicks goes bonkers on Thanksgiving (6-94-2 in Detroit), only to be a complete no-show on Sunday against the Bears.

He wasn’t on the final injury report (there was mention of an ankle during the week), and yet, he ran three routes.

One. Two. Three.

That ranked 11th on the team, and in an offense that can be a bit spastic with target distribution, that’s a good way to take your name out of the hate.

Do I think it sticks? I have no idea, but the fact that a minimization to that level is even within the range of outcomes is enough for me to move on without a second thought. You’re not playing him this week after that showing, and we just learned that a single star performance guarantees you nothing the next week, so would a big Week 15 get Wicks into your Week 16 lineup?

It wouldn’t for me, and that’s why I don’t think he’s roster worthy in any league.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at JAX)

News broke earlier in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be intriguing.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a floundering team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

George Pickens | DAL (vs MIN)

On Thursday night against the Lions, with a game that saw 74 points scored, George Pickens offered fantasy managers just 8.7 PPR points, the second-worst showing of his season.

That wasn’t great, and social media was quick to point out some low-effort moments.

I get it, but I think three months of production have earned him a little more benefit of the doubt than that. He’s caught 5+ passes and earned 9+ targets in six straight games, and his aDOT last week was right with what you’d expect (12.1, season: 12.4).

It was a tough showing against a very good Detroit team that benefited from the ability to allocate more resources his way after CeeDee Lamb left with a concussion. Pickens has been critical to this offense all season, and nothing I saw on Thursday has me changing that thought for the rest of the season.

The aggressive Vikings are as willing to put their corners on an island in the name of pressure as any defense in the league. Given how often Dak Prescott looks Pickens’ way down the field (multiple deep targets in every game this season and multiple deep completions in five contests), I’m entering Week 15 with just as much confidence in him as I did Week 14.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs BAL)

There aren’t many things that can slow Ja’Marr Chase

Jake Browning is one of them, and, at least last week, Mother Nature is another. The elements in Buffalo last week didn’t stop points from being put on the board, but Chase’s aDOT was just 3.8 yards, and that’s going to make it tough for him to live up to expectations.

You’ll be fine.

There’s another potentially high-scoring spot here and a seemingly weatherproof game the following weekend against the Dolphins. Chase deserves to be regarded as a top-5 option at the position, especially against a Ravens defense that just saw DK Metcalf gash them for 148 yards on a 36.4% target share.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (vs NYJ)

Jakobi Meyers has scored in three straight games, and while the efficiency was lacking on Sunday against the Colts, he posted his highest target share of the season (32.3%) and his most air yards since joining the Jags.

He had a rush inside the five-yard line last week, and the touchdown came in the first quarter. The team made it known that they were impressed with his consistency when they acquired him, and they’ve made good on that optimism.

His 9.4-yard aDOT with Jacksonville points to some nice upside to complement the floor that comes with his high target role. Jacksonville is making its playoff move, and Meyers is at the center of it: you can bank on him moving forward with confidence, especially in full-PPR formats.

Jalen Coker | CAR (at NO)

The last time we saw the Panthers, Jalen Coker was enjoying his best game across the board. In Week 13 against the Rams, he set season highs in targets (six), yards (74), scored his first touchdown, and had more air yards than he had in the two weeks prior combined.

I hate to report it, but it means nothing.

He still hasn’t hit double-digit expected PPR points in a game this season. The performance two weeks ago was strong, but it appears to be more random than predictive. If we are talking about a player capped at six low-quality targets in a Bryce Young-led offense, there’s more room for failure than success, and I’d hate to see you chase the one big game that we all missed.

The 2026 conversation will be interesting: if Young is truly a franchise QB, a WR2 is likely to emerge, and I favor him over Xavier Legette. But when it comes to the remainder of this season, there’s no reason to get caught up in recency bias and chase the production from Week 13.

Jameson Williams | DET (at LAR)

Expectations were sky high for Jameson Williams for the majority of last week, with Amon-Ra St. Brown seemingly on the wrong side of questionable.

Detroit’s star receiver ended up suiting up, and it didn’t hurt Williams’ stock in the least. He had a rush attempt in the first quarter that finished inside the two-yard line, and that touchdown would have been nice, but no one is complaining about nine targets, seven catches, and 96 receiving yards.

Williams’ 29% target share on Thursday night was his second-highest in a healthy St Brown game this season (32% against the Browns in Week 4), and it was his fourth time clearing 17 PPR points in a five-game stretch. The volume is one thing, but even more encouraging is the versatility of those looks.

For the first time in his career, Williams has consecutive games with multiple catches at or behind the line of scrimmage. The game-breaking plays over the top are always going to be a pathway for JaMo to reward you for your trust, but if this Dan Campbell system is exploring him in space, the floor/ceiling math changes in a huge way.

He’s never going to be able to outrun all of his risk, but Williams is a player I’m more comfortable with today than I was a month ago and is the type of moderate risk I’d be more than willing to take in the fantasy postseason.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs TEN)

There’s value in what is known, and Jauan Jennings falls into that bucket.

As a part of this Kyle Shanahan system, he’s filled a role that has seen him post 9.2-12.0 expected points in six of his past seven games. He’s scored in four of his past five games and hasn’t had a target share under 21.7% since Week 6, making him one of the more stable players in this range of the rankings.

You’re going to have to look elsewhere for upside, but Jennings is a great bet for 12-15 PPR points in a matchup that places him against a secondary that has been bottom-5 in YPA all season long.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs IND)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba set up his own 28-yard TD last week with a 30-yard reception, proving to be the one-man band he’s been all season long.

At this point, the defense knows what’s coming and is waving the white flag. It was nice to see JSN bounce back from his first dud of the season, and he’s reinforcing the value of a high-end receiver. Teams can stack the box or get out to a big lead and eliminate rushing potential.

What are they supposed to do against a receiver who is open the second the ball is snapped?

Smith-Njigba has 28.5 PPR points than any other receiver, and he’s going to hit 300 points this season before 10 players at the position get to 200. He’s doing all of that while ranking 17th at the position in points scored via end zone targets

Marquise Brown, Jayden Higgins, and Isaac TeSlaa are among the 16 that rank ahead of him, a nod to JSN’s ability to win in space and pick up points with the ball in his hands.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs ARI)

It’s probably too little too late for Jayden Higgins to truly be an asset for your playoff run, but the rookie is positioning himself to be a popular sleeper adjacent pick next season.

He’s earned at least five targets in five straight games, and that’s a skill that usually takes time to develop. We haven’t seen the explosive plays go his way (zero 30-yard receptions), but that might just be a matter of time for a 6’4” weapon that averaged 14.6 yards per catch during his college career.

Nico Collins is going to be the primary target, but if Higgins develops as I think he can, there’s a chance he’ll be a top-30 producer 12 months from now.

We aren’t there just yet, however. Despite some reasonable volume, he’s topped out at 65 receiving yards in a game this season and has been held under 40 on 10 occasions.

Jayden Reed | GB (at DEN)

If the Packers were worried about Jayden Reed, it didn’t show on Sunday during his return to action. After not having played since Week 2, Reed caught four passes on his 17 routes and even handled a pair of carries (the jet sweep in the third quarter being the highlight) in the win over Chicago.

He was third among the receivers in snap share (48.1%) and that’s been consistent with what we’ve seen from him in the past, but if this offense is going to feature Christian Watson the way it has of late, does that not open the door for a more short-range winner like Reed to earn reps over a Romeo Doubs (80.8%) type?

I’m not projecting it, but I think it’s possible and that hope is keeping him in the flex conversation for me this week, even in a tough matchup. We saw Jordan Love call Reed’s number for an important 18-yard play in the fourth quarter last week, and his role in the slot, where Patrick Surtain rarely travels to, appears safe.

Reed flirted with double-digit PPR points against the Bears, and I think he builds on that now that he’s had a week to readjust to the speed of the game. He and Watson are back-to-back in my ranks, a tier that checks in ahead of the Jerry Jeudys and Jordan Addisons of the world, both of whom are coming off productive weeks.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at PIT)

I loved seeing Jaylen Waddle get handed the ball for the first time this season on Sunday (21-yard gain), and he even capped the drive with his sixth touchdown of the season.

He also made a chunk play (24-yard reception) that set up a De’Von Achane touchdown, making good on the 10.9% rise in yards per catch we’ve seen from him this season.

Waddle has seen at least 30% of Miami’s targets during every game of this win streak. While the volume of the offense as a whole can be low (by design), he’s cemented himself as the only consistent target earner and that should have him locked into your lineup this week against a Steelers defense that just gave up 20.6 PPR points to Zay Flowers, the fourth time in a six week stretch in which an opposing WR hit 20 points against them.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at CHI)

You can trust one of two things. You can either buy into Jerry Jeudy’s 60-yard touchdown on Sunday against the Titans as a sign of things to come, or you can take a more thought-out approach and understand that this Browns offense is still a mess.

First Drive

Quinshont Judkins rush, four-yard loss
Quinshon Judkins rush, three-yard gain
Shedeur Sanders sacked
Punt

That was the opening script against maybe the worst team in the sport. I’m not even worried about the result of the drive as much as I am the playcalling: does that look like a coaching staff that wants you to pay the fantasy bills with a member of their passing game?

This is your last shot. If you want to play Jeudy (I wouldn’t), the Bears did just give up three 20+ yard touchdown passes to the Packers, and Jeudy is certainly the most qualified member of this offense to expose that weakness.

That said, this is an iffy rookie QB going on the road to face a playoff team, and you’re trying to bet on a receiver that has seven catches and 12 targets over his past three games.

The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for me: Jeudy is hovering around WR40 status for me this week.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at DAL)

Yep, we are at the point where a 4-62-0 stat line from a Viking receiver feels like a big-time win.

Jordan Addison had 56 total yards in Weeks 11-13, and that makes Sunday, as ordinary a stat line as it was, feel like an upswing. I encourage you to take a step back and realize that Sunday’s production was nothing more than ordinary and that the QB responsible for getting your WR3 the ball is four-of-12 for 20 yards when pressured over his past two starts.

We can agree that JJ McCarthy looked better on Sunday, but that was against a dead team with a fading defense. I’m not suggesting the Cowboys are the ‘85 Bears, but they have been better since the bye (even after the shellacking at the hands of the Lions) and have a rest advantage entering this game.

I view Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, Xavier Worthy, and Jerry Jeudy as WRs with a wide range of outcomes: I have them all ranked ahead of Addison for Week 15.

Josh Downs | IND (at SEA)

In theory, if you take a distressed asset and make a big change around it, that asset can only gain.

In life, I’m with that train of thought. In the Colts’ passing game, less so. Josh Downs hasn’t hit 60 receiving yards in a game this season and is in the midst of a second month-long TD drought.

Daniel Jones was responsible for some of those struggles, but his season is done after the Achilles issue. That paves the way for change, but nothing on this roster gives me confidence that it will help this passing game rediscover the form it had earlier in the season.

Michael Pittman’s role seems to be highlighted most post-Jones injury last week, and with Tyler Warren filling a specific role, this offense isn’t built to support too many options in what promises to be an awfully grounded attack as they attempt to play defense with their offense staying on the field.

Things are ugly in Indy right now, and I’d rather not have any of their receivers dictating my fantasy fate if at all possible.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at DAL)

“Obviously, it’s a difficult season. It’s probably one of the most difficult seasons.”

That was what Justin Jefferson had to say before Week 14, his fifth straight game without a score and ninth straight with a sub-67% catch rate. He doesn’t have a 20+ yard catch in three consecutive games (63 total yards over that stretch) and while the 31-0 win had to feel good at some level, WRs are as stat driven as any position in the NFL and I couldn’t help but notice that Jefferson has been held under 0.50 yards per route four times in his career so far:

Week 13 (at SEA): 0.12
Week 3, 2022: 0.33
Week 17, 2022: 0.45
Sunday (vs. WAS): 0.46

J.J. McCarthy posted his best QBi grade of the season last week, but it came via tight end targets and check-downs.

Jefferson, one of the game’s purest route runners, has gone consecutive games without a catch on a ball thrown past the sticks. That’s tough to fathom and has him sitting outside of my top 20 this week, though I will admit that seeing McCarthy at least have some success gave me a touch more confidence that I had entering Week 14.

I’ve got him ranked in the same area (WR3/flex tier) as Michael Pittman, with a QB change and Rome Odunze at less than full strength and struggling.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs BUF)

Kayshon Boutee has defied logic by scoring on six of his 29 catches and 38 targets, taking full advantage of what it is that Drake Maye brings to the table.

If you view “defying logic” as a way to run your fantasy team, there’s little I can say that is going to change your mind.

Patriot Scoring Rates

Boutee: 20.7% of receptions and 15.8% of his targets
All Others: 6.9% of receptions and 5.1% of receptions

His role comes with a level of variance, and we really haven’t seen the dark side of that variance just yet: when he’s been targeted, you’ve been rewarded. That’s a dangerous skill set to bank on in a perfect matchup, never mind in a potential weather spot against a Bills team that ranks top 10 in both deep ball passer rating and touchdown rate.

I can live with getting knocked out of the fantasy playoffs, I can’t live with it coming as a result of me being left high-and-dry when banking on a WR whose profile is this reliant on singular plays.

Keenan Allen | LAC (at KC)

Keenan Allen hasn’t been a top 35 receiver in a game since he was WR3 out of nowhere against the Colts in the Week 7 loss, and there is no ground to stand on in terms of hoping for a return to relevance for our stretch run.

He’s important to the Bolts, I won’t deny that. He’s their go-to third-down option and has caught seven of the eight balls thrown his way over the past two weeks. But on Monday night, the running backs soaked up the valuable usage (Kimani Vidal with the splash play and Omarion Hampton with the TD), introducing yet another moving piece to a pass game that already has four mouths to consider via WR/TE.

Allen doesn’t need to be rostered: this is meant to be a high-floor profile, and that’s not even remotely close to the case in this offense as it’s currently structured.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at NE)

Keon Coleman found the end zone in Week 13 after being healthy scratched in consecutive games, and that put his name back on the radar of desperate fantasy managers.

It shouldn’t have.

Coleman’s lack of importance to this offense was reflected in those disciplinary actions (remember when the Cowboys put the hammer down on George Pickens/CeeDee Lamb for a whole possession?), and while he’s active these days, he’s not close to mattering enough for us.

Week 14 Route Counts, Buffalo WRs

Gabe Davis: 27
Khalil Shakir: 23
Tyrell Shavers: 18
Brandin Cooks: 15
Coleman: 8

The fact that he was able to earn three targets in that role should be viewed as a minor miracle. Davis is the play on this offense if you’re searching the waiver wire for hope, a role that could be moderately intriguing given how stout the Pats are against the run.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at NE)

My goodness, did you get lucky on Sunday.

Josh Allen did his crazy Josh Allen thing, extended a fourth-down play for a bit, noticed a defender with a turned head, and lasered a touchdown pass to Khalil Shakire in the second quarter.

That was half of Shakir’s catch count for the game, and if that’s not a fourth-down play, I’m not sold that Allen even throws it.

The book on Shakir used to be one of limited upside and a high floor, but with just three catches on 37 routes over the past two weeks, is that still the case?

His slot rate has dipped of late (Tyrell Shavers is picking up some usage in that regard), and that impacts both his volume and efficiency.

Now, for this week, that might actually be a good thing as the rested Patriots allow the sixth fewest yards per pass thrown to the slot. They also have a great run defense and are accustomed to the dynamic that Allen brings to the table by way of seeing him twice annually, so if there’s going to be a Shakir bounce-back week, this is the spot.

I think we get it.

I trust Allen enough to take what the defense is giving him, and if that makes Shakir an extension of the run game through creative/quick looks, I think he’ll leverage that. The per catch production might not jump off the page at you, but we’ve seen him catch 7-8 passes on 8-10 targets three times since the beginning of November, and that’s along the lines of what I’m projecting in this spot.

Shakir is a strong flex play for me this week, and I’d play him over Michael Pittman, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, and the red-hot Christian Watson.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (at KC)

Quentin Johnston had his moments early in the season, and Ladd McConkey/Oronde Gadsden controlled the middle of the season, and now it seems that there is no alpha that we can count on.

Volume was an issue across the board on Monday night, and it’s been an issue for 1.5 months for McConkey (no more than six targets in five straight). A lack of opportunities can be offset via chunk plays or efficiency, but which of those do you feel good about these days?

McConkey’s longest reception over the past month is 15 yards; he doesn’t have a red zone target in four of his past six and has seen his catch rate drop from 73.2% as a rookie to 62.1%.

He’s the Charger WR I have ranked highest, but I wouldn’t use “comfortable with” to describe him. McConkey is sitting just outside of my top 24 at the position, making him a PPR flex in most spots, with the risks being understood.

Luther Burden III | CHI (vs CLE)

With Rome Odunze out of action, the Bears leaned more into two-TE sets and kept Luther Burden as their WR3.

Chicago Route Counts, Week 14

Olamide Zaccheaus: 33
DJ Moore: 33
Burden: 27
Cole Kmet: 24
Colston Loveland: 23

While the role is still underwhelming to some degree, he did lead the way in catches (four), targets (six), and receiving yards (67) in Lambeau.

The rookie has been more involved over the past month, and it feels like a true breakout is on the horizon. The question, of course, is whether it comes this season with all the chips in the middle of the table or if there’s a delay until next season.

Odunze’s status will factor into exactly where Burden falls in the ranks, but his trajectory was positive even before the DNP from Chicago’s WR1. He’s a risky flex play this week: the Browns defense is tough, but they have allowed a higher-than-average passer rating on deep balls, thus making a splash play possible.

If you limped into the playoffs and fear that you are overmatched, this is exactly the type of profile I want access to.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs LAC)

Marquise Brown had the early 35-yard catch on Sunday night against the Texans, but it was his only reception of the game.

This offense pretty clearly isn’t what it’s been in the past, and that is being felt around the fringes. Rashee Rice is getting fed weekly, and Travis Kelce still sees his handful of targets, but that’s about it. Xavier Worthy has struggled to earn looks, and this was the sixth time in seven games that Brown failed to reach three receptions.

I’d look elsewhere for your Week 15 breakout star: no one in this offense outside of the two featured options has a projectable path for a big stat line.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at HOU)

Marvin Harrison Jr. missed Weeks 11-12, but we saw him return productively against the Bucs in Week 13 (69 yards on seven targets). He was much more efficient than the red-hot Michael Wilson in that game, getting the high-quality looks that their WR2 had thrived with when he was absent.

But he suffered a heel injury, and it nagged him enough to have him inactive last weekend against the Rams. He was ruled out on Friday, a day that also carried the news that Kyler Murray’s 2025 season was over.

Coincidence?

The Cards obviously have nothing left to play for, and while their QB situation is TBD moving forward, Harrison still has two years left on his rookie deal and is firmly a part of this team, trying to build a reputable offense.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

We know that the WR1 in this Jacoby Brissett-led offense is a strong bet, but until we get glowing health reports, I’m operating under the assumption that Harrison is on my fantasy bench. This is a brutal matchup for a team that is already looking to 2026: I’m not putting my fantasy season in the hands of a player viewed as a building block for a team that lacks short-term motivation.

Matthew Golden | GB (at DEN)

Matthew Golden returned from a wrist injury and proved that the wrist might not have been the only thing keeping him out.

The Packers gave the rookie just four routes in what was their most important game of the season to date, and I think that tells you all you need to know when it comes to holding out hope for a late-season breakout.

Jayden Reed returned to action and looked healthy, while Christian Watson continues to do what Golden was drafted to do and challenge defenses vertically. In a different world, Golden explodes early in the season with Watson on the shelf, but in this world, the opposite has come to pass, and that means in all redraft leagues, Golden is dead weight.

In a dynasty situation, I actually think you could make a decent argument for him as a buy low. He has a single skill that is already NFL-ready, and Green Bay seems to have its QB of the present and future. Holistically, this is a good spot for the Golden profile long-term, and if he’s rostered by a manager that can win a title this year, maybe you can acquire him at a discount.

Worth a look.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at SEA)

Michael Pittman came alive on Sunday with a nine-catch 79-yard effort in Jacksonville. Still, with the Daniel Jones injury, the risk outweighs the projectable reward for me, especially when you consider the finishing run of opponents.

Remaining Schedule

Sunday at Seahawks
Week 16 vs. 49ers
Week 17 vs. Jaguars
Week 18 at Texans

He had a touchdown wiped off the board over the weekend due to an OPI flag, and I fear we could see these receivers asked to do too much for the remainder of the season.

Pittman is my favorite receiver on this team, but he was under 30 receiving yards in each of the three games leading up to Week 14, and that sort of floor is going to be in play for each remaining game.

Pass Catching Data With Riley Leonard, Week 14

Pittman: 27 routes, 10 targets, 8 catches, 63 yards
Alec Pierce: 24 routes, 5 targets, 3 catches, 54 yards
Josh Downs: 21 routes, 4 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards
Tyler Warren: 30 routes, 5 targets, 1 catch, 2 yards

Pittman over Downs pretty clearly for me, but I wouldn’t be thrilled with having to start him this weekend.

Michael Wilson | ARI (at HOU)

Marvin Harrison gets ruled out, have the social team put together a cute graphic, look intelligent.

Life doesn’t have to be hard. Michael Wilson has been nothing short of unstoppable when functioning as the WR1 in this Jacoby Brissett system; there is just no two ways about it. If you do the completely irresponsible thing of projecting his three games in that role over the course of an entire season, you get 204 catches (55 more than the current single-season NFL record) for 2,257 yards (563 more than the current single-season NFL record).

Crazy good.

If this heel injury sidelines Harrison for another game, you’re firing up Wilson again, though with slightly lower expectations against maybe the best defense in the league. At the very least, the target count should be there, and that makes him a higher upside version of Jakobi Meyers in my eyes.

If Harrison plays, I’m not sure you feel good about any of these receivers. We know Trey McBride is going to demand 25-30% of the targets, and we also know we faced this situation in Week 13 against a Bucs defense that is vulnerable through the air: we got 36 yards on six targets from Wilson.

Greg Dortch (chest) being on injured reserve does open up some target equity in that situation, which is why I am currently planning to start Wilson wherever I have him, regardless of Harrison’s status.

But it would be fun to walk into the fantasy postseason with new-age Calvin Johnson on our rosters, wouldn’t it?

Nico Collins | HOU (vs ARI)

It didn’t take long for the Texans to highlight their ace receiver against the Chiefs on Sunday night as Nico Collins had receptions for 46 and 53 yards in the first half.

As has been the case with this offense for the majority of the season, consistency was an issue: two catches for 22 yards the rest of the way.

We’ve yet to get the slate-breaking game from Collins, and maybe that changes this weekend (Puka Nacua just lit up the Cards for 167 yards and a pair of touchdowns). Even if it doesn’t, he’s rebounded nicely from a slow start (90+ yards in four of his past five) and should be viewed as a rock-solid WR1 the rest of the way.

As for the 2026 conversation, I think it’ll be more of a C.J. Stroud discussion than anything. We know that Collins can be an alpha: if Stroud shows the poise he displayed last week during a playoff run, we could be looking at a top-5 player at the position.

Parker Washington | JAX (vs NYJ)

A hamstring injury had Parker Washington labeled as iffy all week long heading into Week 14, and he was ultimately ruled out on Sunday.

We’ve seen him earn 7+ targets in four of his past five games, and the 23-year-old has shown some nice progress in his third season, but you can move on at this point. His role in this offense isn’t loaded with upside, and with him physically compromised, he’d be difficult to trust even if he were to go through full activities entering this weekend.

The Jags travel to Denver next week: you’re not missing out on anything if you cut ties. Maybe the fast track in Indy during a Week 17 matchup is interesting to you, but that’s a long-term thought that can be considered the closer we get. For right now, his roster spot is better used to chase singular matchups that can help you survive and advance.

Pat Bryant | DEN (vs GB)

It certainly feels like we have more good teams with unclear target hierarchies this season than in years past, and I’d put the Broncos near the top of that list.

For nearly three months, Troy Franklin was pushing Courtland Sutton for the WR1 role in this offense. But now Pat Bryant is playing over him, and anyone who hits the field is going to see 1-4 targets (nine different Denver players fell into that bucket last week, including both Franklin and Bryant).

You dynasty managers should be encouraged by Sean Payton turning the way of the rookie in these impact games, but for redraft, this passing game is an unmitigated disaster.

Bo Nix is a bit of a wild card to start with, but if the targets aren’t going to be concentrated, how can we feel good about playing any Bronco pass catcher outside of Sutton?

I don’t think we can. Last week in Vegas, the closer to the end zone that the Broncos got, the wider the route distribution was. This is a tough matchup, but I’m not sure that this evaluation would be any easier in an ideal spot.

Throw a DFS dart if you’re feeling frisky and want to chase a unique lineup, but in redraft, I like as much stability as I can get, and there’s almost none in this aerial attack.

Puka Nacua | LAR (vs DET)

Puka Nacua cleared 110 receiving yards three times in September, and he did it again on Sunday, his first such performance since the blistering start.

He was at the center of everything Matthew Stafford wanted to do vertically against the Cardinals, something that was obvious with him reaching 130 receiving yards before any of his teammates made it to 30.

Davante Adams’ very specific role has been highly effective, but there is no debating as to who the alpha is in this system. Nacua is pacing for a career year in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He’s on the short list of receivers that can single-handedly swing matchups, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we saw an effort like that on Sunday.

Enjoy the ride this season: who knows what 2026 holds if Matthew Stafford hangs up his cleats (for the record, I think Nacua will be great, but we are in the midst of this Justin Jefferson situation, and that has me thinking critically about everyone).

Quentin Johnston | LAC (at KC)

The Bolts completed 12 passes on Monday night against the Eagles, and that is going to make production difficult to come by for all involved.

Quentin Johnston (shoulder) was a participant in a full practice late in the week, so health wasn’t to blame for his third straight game with exactly three targets. The dip in volume from the beginning of the season isn’t unexpected, but gone are the chunk plays that we had come to assume were a part of this profile, and that’s why I’m benching him in all leagues until otherwise noted.

Johnston hasn’t had a 25-yard catch since September.

September.

Over that stretch (Weeks 5-14), 203 different players have a 25+ yard reception, and Johnston’s name isn’t on that list. Shedrick Johnson’s is. Dareke Young’s is. Jameis Winston’s is.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs LAC)

It’s plenty fair to have wanted more from Rashee Rice on Sunday night against the Texans, but when looking at the role, it was everything you wanted; it was just a rare instance in which it failed.

Rice had his worst game of the season due to a 50% catch rate and a lack of dangerous targets. The low efficiency happened, but with a 2.7-aDOT in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, it’s not exactly the type of thing that you worry about sustaining over time or even over multiple weeks.

There was the bad fourth-down drop and a few other spots where the connection just wasn’t as sharp as it had been over the past two months. Maybe part of it was due to a tough matchup getting into the head of KC’s WR1, and maybe some of it was trying to do too much.

Whatever the case may be, I’m not sour at all and believe he should be viewed as a solid WR1 in this matchup against a Chargers team that has a short turnaround after their overtime win on Monday night.

Los Angeles has the fifth-lowest average depth of throw for their opponents, a defensive structure built for Rice to return to his 6-8 catch production that we had come to assume before the dud in Week 13.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (vs IND)

Rashid Shaheed had his best game with the Seahawks, catching four balls for 67 yards in the blowout win over the Falcons.

For good measure, he added a 100-yard kick return TD, the most extended play in the NFL this season, giving you double the points if you also had access to the stingy Seattle D/ST.

I think this was a potential glimpse into what this team could be in the postseason, but the fact of the matter is that Shaheed is still a part-time player with a volatile skill set. I think he deserves more of a chance, but I’m not the one coaching this team.

Week 14 Participation Report

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 74.1% snaps, 10 targets, 28.1 points
Cooper Kupp: 72.4% snaps, 3 targets, 11.5 points
Shaheed: 51.7% snaps, 5 targets, 16.7 points

I think he brings far more upside to the table than Kupp at this point, but what motivation does Seattle have to play that card until it’s more necessary?

None.

I want to tell you that Shaheed has the potential to break the Week 15 slate and advance you to your semifinals, but I don’t believe it. He and Sam Darnold will connect on a big play this season, my money would just be on it being in January where every inch means more.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at CIN)

Rashod Bateman wasn’t slowed by the ankle injury (his 38 routes ranked behind only Zay Flowers for the Ravens on Sunday). Still, he’s one of those receivers who is asked to suck up defensive attention, not one who is relied on in a meaningful way for our game.

Despite being on the field plenty, Bateman finished Week 14’s loss with a 9.1% target share and hasn’t had a five-target game since Week 3 against the Lions.

This Ravens offense doesn’t look right, and they have a handful of players they need to get on track before they expand Bateman’s role. There’s no need to hold here or even to stash as an upside/in case of emergency play: you can do better.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs TEN)

Ricky Pearsall averaged 15.2 yards per catch across his five collegiate seasons and is at 13.3 during his 18 games as a pro with a 12.9-yard aDOT.

He’s a 25-year-old who was a first-round pick in 2024, so there’s plenty of reason to think that he can develop his route tree, but for right now, he is a serious threat and a serious threat only.

I don’t mind specialized receivers, and I certainly don’t mind betting against the Titans, but whether you want to blame the system of the trigger pullers, this offense hasn’t been explosive at any point this season. San Francisco went on bye in Week 14, and up to that point, here are the 10 worst qualified QBs in terms of passer rating on deep passes this season:

Mac Jones: 70.7
Trevor Lawrence: 70.3
Kyler Murray: 67.9
Brock Purdy: 59.5
J.J. McCarthy: 55.8
Dillon Gabriel: 54.0
D.J. Stroud: 53.8
Tua Tagovailoa: 53.0
Cam Ward: 47.9
Geno Smith: 45.4

If you want to tell me that better days are ahead for Pearsall, I’d believe you. I just wouldn’t believe you if you insisted those better days were part of 2025: we have zero evidence that they were.

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs CLE)

Heel and ankle injuries had Rome Odunze on injury reports with regularity since October, but he missed the first game of his NFL career on Sunday with “rest for a stress fracture in his foot” being cited as the reason.

While that’s certainly not great.

The belief is that he will return sooner rather than later, and every game has value to the Bears. However, it is plenty reasonable to raise an eyebrow at this situation for a receiver who has caught just seven of 21 targets over his past three games.

You drafted Odunze as your WR3 or WR4 this summer with the thought being that he could, with time, take work off the plate and DJ Moore, and peak at the right time. That you might have to lose the initial fight, but that you’d be in a good position to win the war.

You were right about Odunze being more talented than the industry gave him credit for, but man, you were wrong about the run-out.

He scored five times in September and was threatening weekly top 10s as we flipped the calendar to October. Since, however, it’s been unsteady to say the least … exactly the inverse of what you expected.

He’s scored just one touchdown since that opening burst and has turned 21 targets into just 102 yards (seven catches) over the past three weeks. Is this a receiver we should consider benching until he rediscovers his early-season form?

As it turns out, it depends on what you think of the matchup of the lines.

Chicago has allowed pressure on under 32% of dropbacks six times and over 32% six times this season.

Rome Odunze Splits

Low-pressure games: 18.5 PPR PPG, 27.8% target share, 5.0 catches
High-pressure games: 5.8 PPR PPG, 19.2% target share, 2.3 catches

This means that a bet on Odunze is effectively one against Myles Garrett.

You can do that if you’d like, but I’m not. Say what you will about the Browns as an organization, but they’ve ridden #95 to a top-5 pressure rating all season long and posted a cartoonish 62.5% pressure rate in Week 10 against the Jets. I’m not projecting a repeat there, but anything in that stratosphere, based on the trends developed this season, but Chicago’s WR1 is in trouble.

The 49ers (Week 17) are the only below-average pressure defense left on the Bears’ schedule: I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the trends align with Odunze’s recent trajectory.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at DEN)

The Packers welcomed Jayden Reed back and went full Packers on us as a result.

In their win over the Bears, 10 players saw a target, and no one saw more than four.

Christian Watson (4-89-2) made the most of his looks while two targets to Romeo Doubs hit the ground, but those stat lines could easily reverse this week. Or maybe not. Or maybe Jayden Reed takes a week of game reps and looks like a world beater in this spot, a matchup where he likely won’t draw much Pat Surtain.

The fact that all of those outcomes are possible is exactly why you can’t count on any of them. Doubs is a fine player to hold at the end of your bench because any week could be his week, but in this widespread offense where nothing is assured, you’re better off using him as a hope-and-prayer type than you are locking him in with expectations.

This offense will operate through the ground game until forced to do otherwise, then isolate singular matchups that change on a down-by-down basis. Good luck if you’re buying a Packer WR lottery ticket this weekend.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs BUF)

If it feels like the Stefon Diggs season has been a rollercoaster, that’s because it has been.

And that’s going to continue to be the case.

He’s hit a 61% snap share just once since September, and I don’t care how good you think Drake Maye is; limited playing time makes consistent production an uphill battle.

For the season, Diggs has four games of under six PPR points, including each of his past two, but he also has four with over 15. This is a strong offense, and that’ll result in some peaks, but part of the beauty of this unit is that it doesn’t have a single point of failure.

I do have him ranked as the pretty clear WR1 in New England, and with this game having shootout potential, that’s enough to land him in the low-end starter conversation for me, though you need to be aware of the downside.

If I’m a top seed that is loaded with depth, I’d rather plug in a consistent 6–7 target player over one in Diggs who saw 19 looks in Weeks 10-11, but just seven in Weeks 12-13.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs BAL)

The conditions in Buffalo. The secondary. Gravity.

None of those things was going to stop Tee Higgins from doing what he wanted to do on Sunday. He finished the game with a 6-92-2 line against the Bills, highlighted by a grown man, one-handed grab where he reminded anyone watching of just how tough of a matchup he can be.

His big game came during a down Ja’Marr Chase effort (44 yards on eight targets), and that’s not always going to happen, but it was good to see Joe Burrow call his WR2’s number in a major way (four catches on his first 10 pass attempts against the Bills).

He’s back in concussion protocol again this week, and that puts him at serious risk of a Week 15 DNP. You’ll have to monitor this situation, but it’s pretty straightforward: Higgins is a solid WR2 if he’s cleared, and if not, Andrei Iosivas enters the top 40 discussion and shouldn’t be left on waiver wires.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at NYG)

Terry McLaurin had the early 28-yard grab on Sunday against the Vikes, but he was hardly heard from after that (13 more yards) because Washington as a team was hardly heard from after that.

In the game, they had the ball for barely 25 minutes and struggled to sustain anything. McLaurin was very clearly part of the script (46.2% first-half target share), and with Jayden Daniels on the iffy side of questionable right now, it’s worth noting that Marcus Mariota got his WR1 14 targets in Week 13 against a tough Broncos defense.

The opponent is much softer in this spot, and the target competition is less with Zach Ertz (ACL) out for the season (he and McLaurin saw a 60% target share in that Denver game). I think you could make a reasonably sound case to rank him as high as WR7 this week, and I’ve got him as WR11.

It’s not been a great season if you invested in McLaurin this summer, but one big week at the perfect time can help offset some of that, and he does face the Cowboys during the fantasy Super Bowl in Week 17.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (at NO)

The one catch Tetairoa McMillan made against the Rams made a huge impact (go-ahead 43-yard TD), but we can’t overlook that a good defense was able to hold him to just two targets on 22 routes.

The “fear a good team” narrative isn’t one we need to sweat this weekend, but with the Bucs and Seahawks left on the schedule, there’s some serious risk to consider as we come down the stretch.

For this week, you’re playing him (four touchdowns in his past three games) without much of a second thought. He only scored 11 PPR points when these teams first met, but I’ll bet on Carolina gaining more than 175 yards of offense in the rematch.

I’ve got McMillan ranked as a low-end WR2 this weekend, and that’s tentatively where I have him ranked for 2-26 redraft purposes.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs WAS)

The Giants are struggling, but that can often result in an elevated floor for their pass catchers, and Wan’Dale Robinson is a great example of such.

With Jaxson Dart back under center in Week 13, Robinson’s slot usage ticked back up (61.5% of his routes, under 43% in each of the three games prior) and he earned 8+ targets for a fifth consecutive game.

The efficiency spikes and the aDOT dropped, the perfect combination of events for fantasy managers. The limitations of this offense factor into the overall picture (just two end zone targets since September), but there is value in knowing that you can pencil in double-digit PPR points, and that’s what we have here.

Xavier Legette | CAR (at NO)

We shouldn’t care about Xavier Legette.

Since Week 7, he’s been held under 25 receiving yards five times. That sort of floor is crippling and can’t be trusted in a fantasy lineup. That said, he’s still lingering on some rosters because of the two weeks where he actually cleared 25 yards; he was a top 15 PPR receiver.

Those random spikes are interesting enough to have our interest. Still, with Jalen Coker producing before the bye, there’s an increased level of risk when it comes to a receiver who already has a wide range of outcomes.

The Panthers want to pound the rock, and I think we’ll see plenty of that. I prefer Coker to Legette as the WR2 in this offense, but that role doesn’t hold top 40 value for me, regardless of who you give that production to.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs LAC)

Baby steps.

Baby steps might not be enough this time of year, but at least things are moving in a reasonable direction.

On Sunday night, Xavier Worthy had a pair of 20+ yard receptions and, believe it or not, it was his first game like that since Week 4 against the Ravens.

How crazy is that?

The splash plays were good to see, but this is a broken Kansas City offense right now, lacking direction behind Rashee Rice. Their WR1 saw eight targets against the Texans and then saw six players check in with 2-5 looks in the loss.

Worthy comes preloaded with upside by nature of his skill set and quarterback, but he remains ranked outside of my top 40 at the position in this divisional matchup against the second-best defense at limiting 20+ yard completions this season.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at CIN)

Zay Flowers had a highlight reel, over-the-shoulder grab in the first quarter against the Steelers and sustained the momentum for his best game since the opener in Buffalo.

Now, he still hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since that loss to the Bills, but this was his eighth game with a +25% target share, and that’s allowed him to sustain value while Lamar Jackson struggles.

Three of his eight 30+ yard receptions this season came on Sunday, and if the Ravens are going to continue to push his role down the field, there is top 12 upside in this profile. I’m not going that far, but he’s a solid WR2 for me: the last time he went to Cincinnati, he racked up 120 yards from scrimmage and accounted for 26.9% of Baltimore’s receptions.

Soppe’s Fantasy WR Start-Sit Week 15 Players Include Wan’Dale Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Michael Wilson, and Others