Fantasy football often hinges on making the right lineup decisions each week. Navigating which tight ends to start or sit can be critical for competitive managers seeking an edge. This week’s analysis features matchups that may surprise players and reward bold choices. Let’s dig deeper into which trends and situations you need to know before locking in your roster.
Start ‘Em: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
Last week, Kyle Pitts was unable to capitalize on a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that has struggled to contain tight ends. So, that’s not exactly the most encouraging data point for Pitts this week.
The Carolina Panthers are coming off a bad loss to the New Orleans Saints, where Juwan Johnson scorched them to the tune of 92 yards and a touchdown. Carolina now allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Pitts only caught two passes for 38 yards last week, marking his second consecutive game with exactly 38 receiving yards. It hasn’t been good. But the Atlanta Falcons are also coming off a rough loss in a game they realistically should’ve won. And the Panthers have been vulnerable to the tight end.
When Michael Penix Jr. drops back to pass, his options beyond Drake London are limited. Bijan Robinson has been the de facto WR2, but he’s still a running back. There needs to be someone else. It certainly isn’t Darnell Mooney, who has legitimately looked like the worst wide receiver in football since returning from his shoulder injury.
Pitts has four games with at least 12.9 fantasy points. The upside is there. In this matchup, he very well may hit it.
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (at MIA)
Even in a dismal effort against the Lions, Zach Ertz got there for fantasy managers. There are plenty of us who would sign for 9.4 fantasy points from our tight end.
Ertz has caught four passes in three straight games. He has a role in this offense, and the situation is ripe for him to have a strong week.
The Dolphins allow the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Their offense was clicking last week in an upset victory over the Bills. They actually may be able to force the Commanders into a negative game script. Plus, it’s not as if Washington has much of a running game anyway.
Terry McLaurin is going to miss another week, which leaves Ertz as the second option in the passing game behind Deebo Samuel Sr. Ertz has been better than Jayden Daniels than Marcus Mariota, but this could be the week he and the backup finally click.
Sit ‘Em: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at BUF)
Coming off a game where he caught nine of 12 targets for 82 yards, fantasy managers probably don’t want to sit Cade Otton. And you may not be able to. Otton is essentially the Bucs WR2 while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out. This is more of a “proceed with caution” than “don’t start him” for Otton.
The Bills have been very good at defending the tight end this season. In fact, no one has been better. Buffalo allows the fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Now they haven’t faced any of the league’s top tight ends. The best one they’ve seen is Travis Kelce. And let’s be fair, Kelce is not the elite player he once was. Otton could still get by on volume. Just know that the Bills may be able to take him out of the picture.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (at TEN)
Last week, Dalton Schultz was a recommended start due to the favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that struggles against the tight end. Negative game script also played a significant factor in Schultz’s 18.3 fantasy points.
This week should be much different as the Texans are likely to have a positive game script against the worst team in football.
Whether it’s C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills, expect Houston to run the ball on the Titans’ run funnel defense. That means less passing volume for a tight end who is, at best, the third option in the passing game.
If that’s not reason enough, the Titans allow the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Schultz had a great spot start last week. Don’t go back to the well in Week 11.
