It is officially make-or-break time in fantasy football, and every lineup decision feels like a fourth-and-goal with the season on the line. The matchups this week are loaded with volatile backfields, emerging difference-makers, and a few ticking time bombs that could swing entire playoff brackets.
Instead of handing out obvious start/sit calls, this breakdown leans into usage trends, roles, and team context so you can trust the process, not just the projections. Some of the most impactful backs on your roster might not be the biggest names, and that uncertainty is exactly what makes this slate so intriguing.
Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at DAL)
Aaron Jones hurt his shoulder in Week 13, but wasn’t on the final injury report, and the Vikings made it clear that he is the back they prefer.
The veteran RB out-snapped Jordan Mason, 7-3, in the first quarter, and looked about as good as we’ve seen him this season with a 14-for-76 performance in the shutout win over the Commanders.
Last week carried more good than bad, and the Vikes will need to play some defense with their offense in this game, but there are still too many red flags to consider him anything more than a marginal flex option.
Mason held the edge in red zone snaps on Sunday, and Jones failed to catch a pass. This offense is a disaster right now, and that makes for a low floor, even if we feel decent about the role. What you got last week is, in my opinion, on the plus side of projectable. That is, the carry count and efficiency were higher than expected, and that means that there’s more room for regression than building on a reasonable day at the office.
Jones is unlikely to lose you your wee,k and there’s value in that, but he’s just as unlikely to post a big number and give you a serious advantage over the competition.
Alvin Kamara | NO (vs CAR)
Alvin Kamara missed a second straight game with this knee/ankle injury, and there’s little reason to think that the 30-year-old is going to return in a meaningful way for fantasy managers.
The veteran back is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season and hasn’t earned more than three targets in a game since the first half of October. The one-time fantasy difference maker has been unable to return any value for the majority of the season, and a potentially compromised version of him is unlikely to reverse that trend.
New Orleans is coming off a nice upset win behind a young nucleus: I’m anticipating that they lean into that over the final month of the season, and that means that Kamara, even if deemed healthy enough to play, won’t project for enough work as part of a well-below-average offense to crack lineups.
Ashton Jeanty | LV (at PHI)
Over the past three weeks, Ashton Jeanty has averaged 0.72 inches per carry before first contact with one of his 42 attempts, gaining 10+ yards.
That’s a problem.
That’s a sign of roster construction malpractice, but that’s more of an offseason topic.
The role is there, and with 38 targets over his past six games, the acknowledgment of his versatility is too. There’s just a lack of offensive infrastructure, and we are seeing just how much value that has in our game.
Jeanty remains a viable starter because he won’t be scripted out of this game, and we just saw the Eagles get beat up by the Chargers’ RB tandem. With Philadelphia playing an overtime game on Monday night, there’s some fatigue potential to at least consider, but that’s getting a little cute for me.
Jeanty is a fine RB2, and I don’t think the ceiling is all that high, not the type of analysis I thought I’d be giving for a player with this level of pedigree and draft capital.
Bam Knight | ARI (at HOU)
Didn’t we just see this?
Bam Knight walked into a tough Week 14 matchup (vs. Rams), poised for plenty of work with Emari Demercado (ankle) and Trey Benson (knee) both out.
The Cards wasted little time cutting bait on the run game and took their chances with Jacoby Brissett flinging the ball all over the yard. It didn’t work; they lost by 28, but that was the approach.
This week could be awfully similar, but without the upside of six targets for Knight because the Texans’ offense can’t present game pressure in quite the same way. At 3.3 yards per carry this season (103 touches this season and his long gain is just 20 yards), there’s not enough quality or quantity in this profile for me to give it a second look with my fantasy season hanging in the balance.
Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (vs NYJ)
Bhayshul Tuten has five touchdowns on his resume this season and might well be an asset in this league with time.
That time, however, is not now. Not in terms of starting for your fantasy team during the playoffs, at least. The rookie was on the field for nine snaps in the convincing victory over the Colts, and seven of them came on special teams.
I don’t have Travis Etienne in the tier of running back that is so valuable that he needs to be handcuffed, so there’s not a real path to me stashing Tuten in any capacity for the final few weeks.
Blake Corum | LAR (vs DET)
I wish I could get there with Blake Corum. He continues to look great in the work he is given, and he’s clearly a part of the plan.
First Quarter RB Details at ARI
- Corum: 6 carries for 48 yards and a TD (long run: 18 yards)
- Kyren Williams: 3 carries for 30 yards (long run: 18 yards)
But Kyren Williams isn’t going away, and Corum is, at best, fourth in terms of TD equity on this offense. That means that above-average volume is a long shot, and chasing a score is a poor percentage play.
His 209 yards on 19 carries over the past two weeks are great to see as he enters his third season in 2026: for 2025, I still think he’s fighting an uphill battle in most roster situations.
Brashard Smith | KC (vs LAC)
If the Chiefs were to get mathematically eliminated from the postseason, there’s a world in which Brashard Smith is a star over the final few weeks, but that’s not the case right now. The rookie has just seven touches over the past month, and that’s obviously not enough work to be in the flex conversation.
If you have a bye this week or have a locked-in starting lineup, I don’t mind the idea of stashing with the hopes that KC turns his way should the season be over.
Breece Hall | NYJ (at JAX)
If you have to play Breece Hall, you have to play him.
I wish I could spin a statistical story to make you feel good about it, but there’s nothing here outside of betting on a strong talent who projects for north of 15 touches.
We’ve seen rushing attempts be empty calories in four straight games (his longest rush over the past month is 11 yards), but with 201 attempts and 40 targets this year, I’d have a hard time flexing a DK Metcalf type over him this week.
Hall sits outside my top 20 at the position, but I can’t knock him out of the top 25 given his role.
Chase Brown | CIN (vs BAL)
It took a minute, but this is the Chase Brown you signed up for back in August, and he should be considered a reliable asset for the remainder of this season.
The Bengals executed a masterpiece of a first drive in Buffalo last week, and it was capped with a Brown touchdown. Later, he showcased the elite versatility that we fell in love with last season, snaring a comeback pass and just barely crossing the goal line for his second score of the afternoon.
He averaged 5.2 yards per carry two weeks ago in this matchup and added seven receptions for good measure. I’m not sure you can count on both repeating, but either would be enough. Brown is the clear RB1 in this offense, and with 8.5+ PPR points as a pass catcher in five of his past six, there’s a chance he’s the second most dangerous Cincinnati receiving option in what could be a fantasy bonanza on Sunday.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at NYG)
Are you looking for a reason to watch the Commanders?
I wouldn’t be.
Outside of that, I can’t imagine why you’d want to leave your fantasy fate in the hands of a running back in this offense.
Commanders Committee, Week 14
- Chris Rodriguez: 40.8% snaps, 10 touches (two in the red zone)
- Jeremy McNichols: 28.6% snaps, 1 touch (zero in the red zone)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 10.2% snaps, 7 touches (one in the red zone)
C-Rod has only one game with over 12 carries this season and has four catches on his three-year NFL resume. At this limited volume, even if it’s in the “lead role” for this offense, he needs a touchdown to be viable, and I’m just not sold that this team gets much past 20 points in any week for the remainder of the season.
He’s hanging on for dear life to top 30 status at the position in my Week 15 rankings.
Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs TEN)
It’s pretty hard to run for eight touchdowns in a season where you’re picking up just 3.6 yards per carry, but that’s where we are with Christian McCaffrey.
He’s a special back that excels at making the most of the situation around him for fantasy purposes: this offensive line has given him no room to run, but it hasn’t stopped him from getting into the end zone lately (four rushing scores over his past three games).
Oh yeah, and then there’s the fact that he has 4+ targets in every game this season and caught 29 of his 33 targets in November.
The knock on CMC heading into the season was his health. Well, he’s healthy and fresh off a bye against one of the worst teams in the NFL: you’ve benefited all season for embracing the minor discount this summer, and this is as good a spot as you could ask for in the middle of December.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at NO)
Chuba Hubbard cleared 17 PPR points in Weeks 1-2, but from Weeks 3-12, he didn’t have a single double-digit performance.
So, of course, he hangs 20.4 points on the Rams in Week 13, a team that believes it has a Super Bowl-level defense.
The 35-yard touchdown on the first drive (a nice design that saw Bryce Young hit him with a quick swing pass timed up with TE motion to get a downhill blocker in front of him) did most of the damage. Still, Hubbard did get six of the first 10 RB carries for Carolina before the bye, and that was a change of pace from what we had seen prior.
Week 13 Participation Data
- Hubbard: 58.1% snaps, 15 routes, 19 touches (0 red zone)
- Held a 13-2 snap edge on third down
- Rico Dowdle: 43.5% snaps, 6 routes, 20 touches (0 red zone)
Blip on the radar or serious concern?
It doesn’t matter. It would matter if we were in Week 7 and having this discussion with months of runway to benefit, but we are in win-now mode, and the fact that we can reasonably ask that question needs to rule both of these players out of your flex conversation.
You’ll be OK. Not counting on a Panthers running back is probably a good thing for your overall mental health.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs CLE)
I’m old enough to remember when D’Andre Swift was a highly efficient back with the Lions or even in his single season with the Eagles.
That’s not the version we currently have access to.
He gained yardage on all 13 of his carries against the Packers last week, and that was great to see, but for the second time in three weeks, he failed to pick up 10 yards on a single carry.
We know that he’s in a committee situation with a pounder in Kyle Monangai, something that not only limits his volume, but also his touchdown equity. He caught three passes over the weekend (two catches in total over his previous three games), but how much of that was the result of Rome Odunze being sidelined?
I do prefer him to Monangai by the slimmest of margins this week out of respect for this Browns stout run defense, but neither is a top 20 play for me.
David Montgomery | DET (at LAR)
David Montgomery has scored in consecutive games after scoring once in a six-game run.
That’s what he is these days, and while he’s at the higher end of TD-reliant players, he still carries the ultra-low floor that follows that profile.
Montgomery hasn’t cleared 10 touches in a game since early November, and with a lack of volume, naturally, comes a lack of scoring opportunities, even if you play in a high-powered offense.
Thursday night was the fourth time in two months that the veteran back didn’t get a red zone touch. I’m skeptical about counting on a player like this as it is, but if he needs to score from distance (35-yard TD against the Cowboys last week), the risk outweighs the reward.
This is a top-5 rush defense in terms of EPA, and it’s Montgomery, not Jahmyr Gibbs, that feels that the most. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season, but if you remove the 72-yarder against the Ravens back in September, that number drops to 4.1.
His carry count seems capped at eight, and if we give him his customary 2-3 targets, I think we are looking at 10 touches for 45 yards, with little scoring equity at best in a tough spot.
That’s not a stat line worthy of starting in most, if not all, formats.
De’Von Achane | MIA (at PIT)
Reports out of Miami suggest that De’Von Achane wanted to return last week, and that’s been backed up thus far, leading me to believe the ribs situation is a thing of the past.
Use that as your weekly reminder that these are built a little differently than we mere mortals are. Three years ago, I took a charge in a basketball game (called a block, but that’s an argument for another day), broke two ribs, and was sidelined for three months. I couldn’t sleep right, and breathing wasn’t exactly comfortable.
Achane gets dinged up and wants to return to the game.
All of that is to say that I’m weak and Achane should be viewed as he is every week: one of the five best in the game with slate-breaking upside every week. The Steelers slowed a predictable Derrick Henry last week, but James Cook and Chase Brown both cleared 18 PPR points against them thanks to the pressure they create, something that I very much expect Achane to replicate in this spot.
He might be in the 1.01 conversation this summer.
Derrick Henry | BAL (at CIN)
Derrick Henry is what Derrick Henry is, and if you roster him, you’re well aware.
The sneakiest part of his profile is that he’s caught a pass in six straight games. Now, those touches don’t always result in much, but we did see him rip off a 44-yard reception against these Bengals back on Thanksgiving: any avenue to more work for Henry is a-OK by his fantasy managers.
He has at least five red zone touches in three of his past four games, and that’s what you need to see in this matchup against the fifth-worst red zone unit in the league. You’re hoping to get 100 rushing yards or a touchdown in this critical game for the Ravens, understanding that there’s a better shot in this spot of you getting both than of you getting neither.
Devin Neal | NO (vs CAR)
You know how Brock Bowers is a cool name that just sort of fits how he plays?
I’m not exactly sure why, but Puka Nacua always did that for me, too: if you laid out how a player plays and asked me to match it up with his name, I think I would have nailed those two far before seeing either play.
I think the same is true for Devin Neal, but in a much less fun way.
The name is bland, and he just kind of falls forward. In his two games filling in for Alvin Kamara, 24 of his 33 carries have failed to gain more than four yards, and his versatility is limited.
I understand that he was an efficient runner during his time at Kansas (5.7 yards per carry over a 760-try sample size), and maybe he develops into a plus-runner at the NFL level with time, but we aren’t there yet.
Having said that, his 37 touches over those two weeks hold value, especially with this potentially being a competitive game. We saw Tyler Shough account for the touchdowns on the ground last week, and this is only an average red-zone defense, so there is certainly some scoring equity to consider in addition to the raw volume.
You picked up Neal off the waiver wire when Kamara went down, and flex value is a good return for such a move late in the season. I think you get another week of that, and while the upside is limited, a viable floor can work if the rest of your team can do the heavy lifting.
Devin Singletary | NYG (vs WAS)
It’s been forgotten by many because it was two weeks ago and came in an 18-point loss, but Devin Singletary ran hard in Week 13 against the Patriots.
Against arguably the best run defense in the league, he ran for 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (102 total yards). His excellence was even more impactful in our world, as Tyrone Tracy struggled with 10 carries for 36 yards, with no attempt to gain more than nine yards.
Singletary earning three targets to Tracy’s one is even more noteworthy, as that was the spot in this offense where the expectation was for the second-year back to dominate.
The Commanders have a below-average run defense in terms of both yards per carry before and after contact to running backs this season. Singletary earned our confidence before the bye, and we knew he had access to valuable carries even before that. I’m not thrilled about counting on the Giants, but Singletary offers a reasonable floor in a plus-matchup: he’s an RB2 for me this week.
Dylan Sampson | CLE (at CHI)
For the third time this season, Dylan Sampson finished a game with 5+ catches, but without usage in the run game, his floor is too low to trust at any level, even in a PPR setting.
He’s yet to clear seven rush attempts in a game in which Quinshon Judkins has been active, and while the pass-catching prowess is nice to see, it’s far too spotty in this limited offense (five catches on Sunday were three more than he had in all of November).
With a young core, I hope that this offense plays to Sampson’s strengths in a greater way next season, but in terms of the 2025 fantasy playoffs, there’s no intrigue here.
Emanuel Wilson | GB (at DEN)
After carrying 28 times (30 touches) in the Week 12 game that Josh Jacobs missed, Emanuel Wilson has been a complete afterthought with RB1 back in the featured role.
- Thanksgiving at Lions: 4 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets
- Sunday vs. Bears: 3 carries for 10 yards, 0 targets
There’s nothing to suggest that Wilson is due for more work moving forward or that Jacobs is at anything less than full strength. If you want to hold him as an insurance policy or as a ‘one injury away’ piece, I think you can. Still, if you’re in a shallow league where every roster spot needs to be worthy of flex consideration, you’re free to move on in favor of a player who is getting on the field with more regularity.
Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs LAC)
The Chiefs came out of the blocks with Isiah Pacheco as their featured back against the Texans last night, and that was good to see in his second game back from injury.
He didn’t exactly reward them, however (nine carries for 30 yards), and this feels very much like an offense that is going to go into “please save us, Mahomes” mode sooner than later.
If that’s the case, Pacheco’s hard-nosed, two-down back role could disappear in short order. He has yet to run for 60 yards or clear 20 as a receiver in a game this season, and that means you’re essentially chasing a touchdown from a struggling unit that prefers to throw the ball.
Not great.
Rashee Rice is the only KC skill player that I have ranked as a starter, with both running backs falling into the very low-end of the flex discussion in PPR formats.
J.K. Dobbins | DEN (vs GB)
A foot injury has landed J.K. Dobbins on IR and will likely end his fantasy season.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for managers, as he’s been a stable source of work all season, but you failed to build your roster properly if you were banking on a full season from the oft-injured running back.
Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played 47 career games (of a possible 101 regular-season games when this season ends). Use this as a reminder that you can NEVER have too much depth at the position, especially as the season nears its conclusion. This is the RJ Harvey show moving forward, and if you want to take a flier, Jaleel McLaughlin is worth a look for those struggling to build out their RB room.
Sean Payton is likely to keep multiple backs in the rotation, and while I think you’re drawing thin with McLaughlin, he figures to be on the field some and now carries a reasonable amount of contingent value.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at NYG)
The preseason steam was fun, but there’s no way to justify holding onto Jacory Croskey-Merritt at this point. He’s been held under a dozen touches in four straight games, has nice receptions for the entire season, and hasn’t found the paint since Week 5.
Chris Rodriguez has grabbed control of this backfield, and while I’m not sold that he’s a fantasy starter, I am sold that this backfield can’t sustain two rosterable backs. The matchup isn’t a worry, but without a role, there’s no clear way to profit from a plus spot.
Move on and chase a player with a higher ceiling (even an injury to Rodriguez wouldn’t elevate JCM into my top 20 at the position, given that Washington finishes the fantasy season with games against Philadelphia and Dallas).
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at LAR)
Nothing to see here, just another elite performance from Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s gotten to the point where his spike games no longer carry a shock factor: it seems reasonable when he rips off a huge performance, and that’s when you know a superstar has graduated into the super-duper star tier.
On Thursday night, he posted his fourth game this season with 36+ PPR points, matching the rest of the position across the league in such performances.
That’s crazy.
He just gave us three games with three TDs in a month-long stretch and has hauled in at least three passes in seven straight, fueling speculation that he could be the 1.01 in August. On Thursday night, the Lions made their expectations no secret: a 19-yard swing pass that was ruled a rush was followed up with a 26-yard reception on the next play.
The Rams are as solid as it gets at defensive end, but how do you slow Gibbs? He’s too versatile and too dangerous. I prefer a better matchup, but my downgrade for him is so minimal that it’s hard to notice in the rankings.
The Lions are riding Gibbs the same way you are.
James Cook | BUF (at NE)
James Cook has put the ball on the ground four times over the past two weeks (two lost), and while it hasn’t dented his volume, it needs to be noted for an offense that already lacks confidence when anyone not named Josh Allen is handling the ball.
The lost fumble came on the doorstep as he was trying to score his ninth rushing TD of the season. Allen is going to handle such a high percentage of those valuable looks that Cook can’t really afford not only to fail to convert but also to put the game in jeopardy with a turnover.
At the end of the day, your opponents would love to be complaining about Cook. He’s cleared 15 carries in four straight (and seven of eight) and has multiple receptions in five consecutive games after a bizarre month-long stretch where he totaled one reception.
That versatility figures to come into play this week against an elite Patriots defense that is fresh off their bye, and it’s why I think he still returns top 10 production at the position.
Javonte Williams | DAL (vs MIN)
Javonte Williams just keeps getting it done.
He’s attached to one of the most potent offenses in the league and has been trusted with at least 19 touches in four straight games. The environment has allowed him to touch the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line multiple times in every game this season, supporting a profile that already has four more touchdowns on it than his previous career high.
We’ve seen lesser talents in Kenneth Gainwell, Kimani Vidal, and Emanuel Wilson all turn high-end volume into over 19 PPR points against the Vikings. That’s a heavy projection, but not an unreasonable one given his role and the extra rest time ahead of this matchup.
Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs MIA)
There was nothing fancy on the 38-yard, third-down dump-off pass to Jaylen Warren on Sunday in Baltimore, but against the all-out pressure, it opened up, and he scored.
It’s a good thing, too, because his other 10 touches picked up just 24 yards and had no excitement attached to them.
All in all, Warren has scored in three straight, but he did split snaps with Kenneth Gainwell down the middle last week and only outtouched him by one. You’re on reasonably thin ice here, but with Gainwell the preferred option and the expectation for this to be a more favorable script, I think you can get away with considering Warren as an RB2 in PPR formats.
It’s not always a work of art, but he’s the favorite in this backfield for rush attempts and has caught 30 of his 35 targets on the year.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (at PIT)
Jaylen Wright was pushed into lead duties last week against the Jets after De’Von Achane exited with a rib injury, but all signs point to the star running back at full strength for this game, thus making the second-year backup RB nothing more than roster depth.
It was good to see him comfortable in carrying the mail (24 carries for 107 yards), don’t get me wrong, but remember when Marquise Brown put up Xavier Worthy numbers in the Xavier Worthy role in Week 1?
He benefited from the spot, but it meant nothing in the long term. It’s Wright and Ollie Gordon behind Achane, a role that offers contingent value at best.
Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at NYG)
For the record, I don’t think this backfield has a single back that should be counted on, but even if I’m wrong there, I’m confident that Jeremy McNichols won’t be the one who burns me.
He had just one touch on Sunday in Minnesota and has just 50 for the season. This offense has shown no signs of wanting to extend his role, even with various promotions/demotions elsewhere in this backfield.
With three members involved, even an injury doesn’t open up a significant role for any individual. I have no interest in filling out my roster with a secondary piece in Washington, not at this point.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (at SEA)
Among the 41 running backs with 100+ carries this season, Jonathan Taylor ranks No. 31 in percentage of runs coming against a loaded box and, in a correlated manner, 10th in yards per carry gained before first contact.
Daniel Jones hadn’t been playing great football of late, but his resume for the season as a whole still inspired a level of fear in defenses, especially with Alec Pierce’s ability to flip the field on a single play.
I think we can agree that the situation has changed significantly now with the QB change, and we started to see some of that last week when Taylor was stuffed on a fourth-down RPO.
There’s not going to be respect given to the “P” part of that design in the short term, and that takes the upside out of the design. You’re starting Taylor, that’s a non-negotiable. He has one of the three best roles in the sport and is as talented as anyone in the game.
If there’s someone who can overcome circumstance and matchup, it’s JT, but I won’t be surprised in the slightest if we see him struggle to reach four yards per carry in a game where the Colts rarely threaten the red zone.
I’m facing a Taylor-led team in the quarterfinals of the playoffs this week, and I feel far more alive in this matchup than I did a week ago when this matchup was coming into focus.
Jordan Mason | MIN (at DAL)
Jordan Mason found the end zone last week on a nice misdirection design in the second quarter, his sixth score of the season, and a reminder of the threat he is near the goal line.
I imagine that I’ll be higher on Mason than you … next season. For right now, he played two snaps for every three that Aaron Jones did in Week 14, and this offense isn’t built to support two backs on any sort of consistent basis.
Jones doubled him up in routes run, and with me expecting the Vikings to be playing from behind in this spot, I value that role over Mason’s edge in scoring position. I don’t feel great about anything attached to this offense right now, but it’s Jones holding flex value over Mason in Week 15.
Josh Jacobs | GB (at DEN)
Josh Jacobs has just three red zone touches over the past two weeks, 1.3 fewer than he was averaging PER GAME through his first 10 of this season, and the scoring equity isn’t set to spike against an elite Broncos defense.
There’s nothing to do here.
The gravity that Christian Watson is providing for this offense has a positive trickle-down effect across the board and could be part of why Jacobs has a 15+ yard run in three straight.
We know the rushing volume is locked in (17+ carries in four of his past five games), and while his role in the passing game has been a bit sporadic, we at least have five examples of him catching 4+ passes this season.
This matchup has him sitting just outside of my top 10 at the position: a slight downgrade, but not enough to truly impact your decision-making.
Kareem Hunt | KC (vs LAC)
Before the Isiah Pacheco injury, Kareem Hunt was trending in the wrong direction role-wise, but still maintaining value with a stranglehold on the valuable carries inside the 10.
It would appear that we could be headed in that direction again.
Hunt’s first rush attempt in Sunday night’s loss was KC’s eighth of the game (five for Pacheco and two for Mahomes), so while he ended up leading the position in touches for the game, it was clear that the script was more Pacheco-based than we saw in Week 13.
That said, this is still an offense that can move the ball, and that’s been enough to justify starting Hunt more often than not. He has 14 red zone touches over his past three games, and that’s enough to flex him, even if you view the 12 touches last week as something of a ceiling.
The Chiefs do appear to trust Hunt more in hurry-up/pass-heavy situations, which could prove handy against the third-best run defense by EPA. I don’t feel strongly about either Kansas City running back being a strong play this week: both are flexs at best, and you’re hoping for some Mahomes magic to create scoring opportunities.
Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at CIN)
I don’t really know what Keaton Mitchell is in this league, but he’s something.
Before exiting Sunday’s loss against the Steelers, he racked up 76 yards on six attempts, including a 55-yarder where he just seemed to be operating at a different level than the elite athletes he was sharing a field with.
He’s a nice compliment to Derrick Henry in the short term, but what can he be at the peak of his powers?
Only time will tell on that front. If this knee injury results in any missed time, you can move on without much concern. In reality, unless your crystal suggests that a Henry injury is coming, you can move on from Mitchell regardless, understanding that the weeks left to make an impact are low. He really doesn’t have flex value when looking at mean outcomes (38 touches this season).
Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (vs MIA)
We have a dead-even committee, and unless you think the Steelers offense turned a corner last week, that raises serious concerns for all involved.
And when I say “dead even”, I mean it.
Week 14 RB Data
- Kenneth Gainwell: 49% snap share, 19 routes, 10 touches
- Jaylen Warren: 49% snap share, 15 routes, 11 touches
This Pittsburgh offense looked as close to explosive against the Ravens over the weekend as we’ve seen this season, and that provides a glimmer of hope as they head into this matchup with a suddenly surging Dolphins team.
I did it. I made the move.
I have Gainwell ranked one spot ahead of Warren this week, both in the flex range at the position, due to the involvement of the other. This role is pretty much split down the middle, and that’s what I can’t fault you for landing on the other side, but I’m not confident in this offense, and that has me chasing the scoring role, understanding that yardage could be tough to come by.
Of course, when yards are hard to come by, so are points, but it makes the impact of a touchdown that much greater, and Gainwell held a 7-2 edge over Warren in red zone opportunities last week (six-yard TD).
It’s not very comfortable, but I think you’re playing either side of this backfield.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs IND)
Kenneth Walker (glute) was not present on the final injury report last week for the Seahawks, but he struggled in a big way in the win over the Falcons (11 touches for 28 yards).
He was again featured ahead of Zach Charbonnet and finished with a +50% snap share for a fourth straight game, but duds like this are precisely why Seattle has been hesitant to give their most explosive RB more than 15 touches consistently.
READ MORE: Week 15 Fantasy RB Cut List Includes Isiah Pacheco and Trey Benson
That said, the Colts are the 10th-worst pre-contact rushing defense, and we know that Walker can hit big at a moment’s notice. With him earning at least three looks in four straight, there’s enough PPR floor for me to slot him as a viable flex that could well finish as a strong RB2 with one splash play.
Kimani Vidal | LAC (at KC)
Kimani Vidal got the first two running back touches for the Chargers on Monday night during Omarion Hampton’s, but the rookie outdid him 7-2 for the rest of the first half and seemed to be the desired answer to the backfield questions for this team.
The 60-yard catch on a crossing route, where he broke away and ran free with most of the action on the other half of the field, helped fuel a decent fantasy day for Vidal, but that’s not how I have it ranked in Week 15.
Hampton is a fantasy starter, while Vidal is someone I view as a non-factor in a tough matchup. There’s enough contingent value in this profile to hold onto him for one more week, but don’t get too attached. I think it’s likely that he’s cuttable after a low usage Sunday.
Kyle Monangai | CHI (vs CLE)
Kyle Monangai has leveled up from the handcuff to a standalone tier of running back with 12+ carries in four straight games. He has only had multiple receptions twice this season, and given the fluidity of D’Andre Swift in that regard, it’s hard to pencil in much growth on that front.
If you have other options, I’d suggest going that direction. I trust the stingy nature of this Cleveland defense too much to flip on them after a weird no-show against Tony Pollard and the Titans last week.
Chicago running backs combined for 17.9 points last week, and in what is essentially a 50/50 split, that’s not a big enough pie to be split two ways. I’m leaning toward Swift over Monangai if forced to choose, but I’m not excited about either in this spot.
Kyren Williams | LAR (vs DET)
Kyren Williams has scored six times in his past six games and hasn’t been tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage in consecutive contests.
Is that … a bad thing?
The Rams are exploring a committee situation and getting exactly what they want out of it: both Williams and Blake Corum have looked fresh when given the opportunity to shine.
We’ve seen Williams transition from a volume back to one who needs to remain efficient. He’s made the transition well and remains a viable RB2 despite being held to 12-14 carries in five straight games.
The floor COULD fall out from under him in this spot against a good run defense and an offense that could force Los Angeles into a pass-centric script. In Weeks 1-9, Williams out-touched Corum 30-9 in the red zone, but his edge is just 15-11 since, and that’s where the risk comes in.
Detroit owns the third-best post-contact run defense in the league, a skill that could hold Williams to a stat line that we saw from him in Week 12 against a similarly stingy run defense in the Buccaneers (48 yards on 13 touches without a touchdown).
My mean projection for him isn’t drastically different from where we stood a month ago, but the floor component is, and that introduces a big-time dud into the range of outcomes.
Nick Chubb | HOU (vs ARI)
Nick Chubb suffered a rib injury last week in Kansas City, and that put all of the usage upon Woody Marks.
This isn’t worth waiting on. The veteran running back didn’t have a game with a dozen carries at any point in November, and he’s still riding a few big early-season runs to have his YPC average over 4.0 yards per carry.
The Texans are making their move, but Chubb isn’t an important piece to their success and isn’t close to roster-worthy, even if deemed healthy.
Ollie Gordon II | MIA (at PIT)
We saw De’Von Achane (ribs) get hurt last week, and the Dolphins showed their hand in terms of backfield rotation.
Jaylen Wright doubled up Ollie Gordon in terms of snaps and cleared 100 rushing yards in the dominating win over the Jets. Gordon punched in a short score, his third of the season, but this was his opportunity to prove himself as the proper handcuff and he was clearly overlooked.
All signs point to Achane being back this week and that’ll render this discussion useless, but Mike McDaniel made it clear who is second in command behind his star and that makes Gordon waiver wire fodder at this point in the fantasy season.
Omarion Hampton | LAC (at KC)
I thought Omarion Hampton (ankle) looked great in his return to action. He recorded the first touchdown catch of his career on Los Angeles’ first drive, and while both he and Kimani Vidal each touched the ball 15 times, it was clear as the game wore on that this is the rookie’s gig to lose.
Vidal more than tripled Hampton’s route count in third-down situations on Monday night, and if you want to nitpick, that’s where you can do it. The pass-catching ceiling might not be what it was during the first month of the season, but I think we can pencil in a 2:1 rush edge and feel good about it moving forward.
This Chiefs defense is among the best in the sport, but both Javonte Williams and Woody Marks cleared 15.5 PPR points against them over the past two weeks. I think that’s about where Hampton is swimming this week and that lands him as a fine PPR RB2.
Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at CHI)
Shedeur Sanders and this passing game excelled at such a level over the weekend that you may have overlooked the fact that Quinshon Judkins had 14 carries for 26 yards (14 of which came on a single play).
A 58-yard reception allowed him to avoid a complete disaster, but it wasn’t far from it. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and the role is secure (10 carries on Sunday before Dylan Sampson got his second one, 15+ touches in five straight games). Still, the surrounding environment remains prohibitive at a high level.
Judkins has one red zone touch over his past two games and six contests this season with one or fewer touches inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. He’s averaging under half a yard per carry before contact this season and has been hit, on average, behind the line of scrimmage three times this season (Weeks 7-12-14).
You’re signing up for a limited ceiling and banking on the suspected floor that comes with the volume. I’d rather do that than bank on shaky volume and hope for a big play, but this profile has the potential to disappoint in a big way if the Bears can jump out early.
Ray Davis | BUF (at NE)
For the third time in four games, Ray Davis didn’t record a single touch.
James Cook is great, and the Bills are well aware of that, keeping him on the field as often as they can. That said, Davis would be a flex should their RB1 miss any time, and that’s why you’re holding in deeper formats.
If you need every roster spot to be worthy of flex consideration this time of year, I fully get it, and Davis isn’t that.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs BUF)
We saw Rhamondre Stevenson take on more work in Week 13 than in Week 12 as he showed health, but he stayed on brand and underwhelmed.
There was an outlier 36-yard reception. It counted, but that’s not what you’re counting on from Stevenson and his other 14 touches, which gained 44 yards against a bad Giants defense. Blame the blocking or a lack of conviction, it doesn’t matter to me: 112.6% of his rushing yards over his past three games have come after contact.
He does have 3+ red zone touches in four consecutive games, and that has the potential to bail you out if you’re really backed into a corner, given the matchup, but I wouldn’t be looking to play him if I can avoid it.
Rico Dowdle | CAR (at NO)
After a run of snap dominance from Rico Dowdle over Chuba Hubbard, Carolina used a committee approach to down the Rams in Week 13, and this profiles as a frustrating backfield as we get the fantasy season to the finish line.
In Seattle, because the offense is one we can rely on, you could squint and justify playing both members of their backfield. In Carolina, that’s not the case.
This team has failed to score 10 points in three of their past six games, and a floor like that simply tanks the projectable upside of all involved, especially if we aren’t sure who is going to get the most valuable touches.
Dowdle has fallen on his face in terms of rushing efficiency of late (under 3.3 yards per carry in each of his last three games with 10+ carries) and while the pass catching role has been stable of late (19 targets over his past five games), Hubbard was the third down back with a bullet in Week 13 and that introduces risk into this profile.
This could be another high-volume rushing game for the Panthers, but you’d have to be reasonably desperate to go this far down the ranks with no teams on a bye. After this week, Carolina gets Tampa Bay and Seattle, two run defenses that I have no interest in challenging.
It shouldn’t be a surprise, but there is only one Panther you should even consider with your season on the line, and his name is Tetairoa McMillan.
RJ Harvey | DEN (vs GB)
Six different Broncos had a rush attempt in Vegas last week, and that’s Sean Payton leaving his fingerprints all over the box score, but RJ Harvey (17 attempts) was the only one to reach five, and he profiles as a bellcow moving forward.
He got off to a good start (30 yards on three carries during the first drive) and handled the important work for a Denver team that is chasing the conference’s top seed.
On Sunday, he posted a second straight game with a rush TD and 25+ receiving yards, making him the fifth player with such a streak this season (Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Omarion Hampton being the others).
This is a tough matchup (Green Bay hasn’t allowed a running back to reach 13 PPR points in back-to-back-to-back games), but I view 15 touches as a near lock, and with this versatile profile, that’s enough to rank inside of my top 20 at the position.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs LV)
We got the Adam Schefter report last weekend that Nick Sirianni was more involved in the offensive prep ahead of Week 14 than he had been prior, and we saw some juice from Saquon Barkley.
Coincidence?
Maybe. Maybe not.
The Tush Push look that got Barkley on the perimeter to set up his 52-yard touchdown was a nice way to play chess and change the pace of the ground game. The hope is to get Lane Johnson (foot) back this week, and with Barkley’s volume not fading (20+ carries in three of his past five), he’s an RB1 for me in a game where I expect the Eagles to turn things around finally.
I’m annoyed by the fact that he has failed to catch a pass in consecutive games for the first time in his career and has been held to two or fewer receptions six times this season. However, the floor is still high enough in this system to play him without a second thought, even if the ceiling isn’t nearly what you thought you were getting this summer when you drafted him.
Tony Pollard | TEN (at SF)
Entering Week 14, Tony Pollard was stuck in the mud for a struggling offense without upside.
Entering Week 15, Tony Pollard is coming off a monster game after being stuck in the mud while still playing in an offense without a ton of upside.
I can’t explain to you where his huge game in Cleveland came from (25-161-2). After failing to get within 70% of his expected PPR points in four straight games, he turned 12.6 expected points into 28.1 against maybe the best run defense in the NFL.
I think we chalk this up the same way we choose to forget that the Raiders went into Foxboro in Week 1 and won.
It’s a sport played with a goofy-shaped ball: weird things happen on occasion.
I think you’re looking at the glass half full to get Pollard into your flex conversation: he’s sitting around Rb30 for me this week.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs NYJ)
Travis Etienne scored a pair of touchdowns in the first half of the blowout win over the Colts last week, bringing his season total to nine in a season that has been more valuable than those who don’t roster him may realize.
Left tackle Walker Little (concussion) sat out last week, and that resulted in him averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the fifth time in six weeks. I’m not too confident in Etienne’s efficiency or role in the passing game (five catches over his past four games), but his ranking sixth in the NFL in red zone touches is enough to keep him in the middle of the RB2 tier as a double-digit favorite.
In December, if I can get 15+ carries and scoring equity, I’ll take it and not complain.
TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs BUF)
TreVeyon Henderson has given us over 13 expected PPR points in five straight and seems to finally be locked into a 15-18 touch role.
You love to see it.
This Bills run defense is a bottom-5 unit in every category that you’d look at, and we’ve seen it by way of some slate-breaking performances (Bijan Robinson, Sean Tucker, and De’Von Achane all easily cleared 30 points in this matchup over the past two months).
This is the moment you drafted Henderson for. He’s rested off the bye, running hard (4.7 yards per carry after contact against the Giants in Week 13), and being used in a fantasy-friendly way with over 15 routes run in five straight contests.
Henderson is a script-proof back that should have no problem giving you top 15 production in this spot, no matter how you think the game plays out. Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since September, and while he had the 36-yard catch in Week 13, that’s going to be Henderson more often than not, given his versatility.
Wheels up. You suffered through a lot of early-season shenanigans for the opportunity to unleash this rookie in the first round of your playoffs with confidence.
Trey Benson | ARI (at HOU)
Jonathan Gannon seemed awfully guarded when discussing the Trey Benson (knee) situation last week, and that should have you planning on being without him until we get either consecutive days of glowing reports or actual on-field proof that he’s recovered.
Gannon expressed some cautious optimism about his returning to play this season. However, he also implied that you don’t rush activation when the player would still be at risk of being shut down shortly thereafter.
Bam Knight continues to be the man getting the work, but this is yet another brutal matchup. It should be noted that the Cards host the Falcons before traveling to Cincinnati in Weeks 16-17: if this is still Knight’s gig at that point, we might be able to have a RB2 discussion, but for now, in a pass-centric offense for a franchise with nothing real to play for, this looks, for now, like an outright avoid situation for Week 16.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (at SF)
Tyjae Spears has caught multiple passes in eight straight games and has caught 30 of his 34 targets for the season.
He’s a viable pass-catching option for Cam Ward, but with just 47 carries this season (3.8 yards per carry, a rate that dips under 3.0 if you remove a single outlier run) and Tony Pollard coming off of his best performance of the season, there’s no real path to nearly enough volume to matter.
I think we’ve seen enough from the 24-year-old Spears to be interested in 2026 should he project for a role extension, but in this offense as it is, he’s not deserving of being on the flex radar, even in full-PPR formats.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs WAS)
The expectation is for Tyrone Tracy to be fine after suffering a hip contusion in Week 13 before this team went on bye, but it really shouldn’t matter if you have a competitive fantasy team.
Over his past two games, his 30 carries have gained just 98 yards, and Devin Singletary outplayed him against the Patriots in a major way. More concerning than the limited efficiency on the ground was the fact that his 13 routes yielded just one target, a catch for a loss of three yards.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 15 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
His being a receiver in a former life was interesting following the Cam Skattebo injury, and we saw him catch seven of eight targets for 119 yards in the two weeks before this dud, making the airball that much more harmful.
I still think he’s the most likely Giant RB to earn a target. Still, if that’s not a forgone conclusion and he’s going to give up the valuable work on the ground to Singletary, there’s no clear path for him to return to top 30 production, even in a plus-matchup.
Woody Marks | HOU (vs ARI)
The Texans are establishing an identity, and Woods Marks is a big part of that.
The rookie is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season, and it was even worse on Sunday night in Kansas City (2.6), but it’s clear that they trust him, and that’s good enough for me in this spot as a two-score home favorite.
Marks has 16+ touches in five consecutive contests, and with the Cardinals ranking in the bottom 10 in both yards and touchdowns per running back carry, he’s a fine RB2 that comes preloaded with a reasonable floor.
Do I think he has 25-point upside behind this offensive line? Not really, but not every piece is meant to be a matchup definer. Thanks to the volume, He’s a good bet to reach double figures in points, and with reasonable touchdown equity, he’s got every chance to finish near 15 points and get the job done as a starter for you.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs IND)
For the third time in five games, Zach Charbonnet averaged north of 5.5 yards per carry and is showing some semblance of upside when he gets handed the rock (at least one 13+ yard run in three straight).
Combine that with his goal-line role, and there is some flex appeal in this profile, even as the snaps gradually move in the direction of Kenneth Walker.
As a big favorite, this would be the spot to use him: he’s still viewed as their most consistent back, and if they are playing with a lead, the fact that he has half as many targets this season as Walker doesn’t matter as much.
I still prefer Walker to him if you’re deciding between Seahawks, but both reside in my top 30 and check in ahead of the Chicago duo as they take on the Browns.
