Week 1 fantasy football is all about running back opportunities and matchups. James Conner and Rhamondre Stevenson offer upside, while Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and Kaleb Johnson should sit. Strategic choices now set the tone for early-season success.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 1
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at NO)
Conner enters Week 1 as Arizona’s undisputed workhorse. Trey Benson is more secure as the team’s RB2, but this is going to be the “Conner Show” early on. The veteran averaged 15.9 PPR points per game in 2024 and brings reliable production to a Cardinals offense that will lean heavily on the ground game.
New Orleans presents a dream matchup. The Saints allowed 24-plus fantasy points per game to running backs last season and rank among the worst run defenses in football. Their front seven underwent significant changes, and with Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback, the game flow should favor Arizona, controlling possession through Conner.
James Conner was charted with 10+ yards after contact gained on 19 separate runs in 2024. He led the NFL in this metric in 2023 as well!
According to the @FantasyPtsData Suite, Conner tied Derrick Henry for the NFL lead in missed tackles forced (68) as a rusher.
James Conner… pic.twitter.com/QlvixmzpGL
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 24, 2025
The Cardinals had a 56% positive game script run rate last season (leading by seven-plus), the seventh-highest in the league. In a game they should lead throughout, we should see a whole lot of Conner.
The Cardinals’ offensive line looked sharp in preseason, creating running lanes and extending drives. Conner could see 18-22 touches, dominate goal-line work, and absorb targets in the passing game when Arizona needs to move the chains.
His combination of power and receiving ability makes him a great option against a Saints defense that couldn’t stop anyone last year. Conner is a borderline RB1 this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (vs. LV)
The Patriots’ backfield is no longer the “Rhamondre Stevenson Show” — rookie TreVeyon Henderson will be plenty involved. However, early in the season, the rookie must “earn his stripes.” Stevenson will start and should handle the between-the-tackles work and goal-line carries.
The Las Vegas Raiders’ defense was average last season but projects to be one of the weaker ones this year.
Drake Maye’s athleticism and mobility should help open up lanes for both backs. Fantasy managers know to start Henderson, who I have ranked inside the top 20 for Week 1. But Stevenson is already being viewed as an afterthought. I would say not just yet.
Even in a committee, Stevenson offers RB2 floor with RB1 upside if he finds the end zone. The matchup is too good to fade. Start Stevenson with confidence.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 1
Javonte Williams & Miles Sanders, Dallas Cowboys (at PHI)
The Cowboys’ backfield is a committee nightmare featuring Williams and Sanders sharing touches with no clear hierarchy. Philadelphia’s defense was elite against running backs in 2024, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position and surrendering the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league.
Both Williams and Sanders profile as low-volume players in a difficult matchup against a defensive front that specializes in stopping the run. The Eagles’ linebacker corps is healthy and aggressive, creating the exact kind of environment where running backs struggle to find consistent yardage.
Javonte Williams early season heroics
Buckle up and get ready for 15 for 67 stat lines, Cowboy nation
pic.twitter.com/i9LtO4G4VU— FantasyNerdBoi (@NerdBoiTakes) August 23, 2025
The reality is the Cowboys have the worst running back room in the NFL and are poised to be extremely pass-heavy in 2025. Against an explosive Eagles offense, they may be forced into a negative game script early.
This is a clear avoidance spot. Both players lack the volume needed to overcome a brutal matchup, and their touchdown equity is minimal against Philadelphia’s stingy defense. Instead of chasing committee players in difficult spots, find running backs with clearer roles and more favorable defensive opponents.
Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (at NYJ)
The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Johnson to replace Najee Harris. While we did see Harris earn elite volume as a rookie, he was also a first-round pick. Johnson was selected in the third round. Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith are the type of coaches who make their rookies “earn their stripes.”
Fantasy managers who drafted Johnson should absolutely not feel bad about it. He should be their RB1 of the future and will take over as the lead runner eventually. But in Week 1, this all sets up for Johnson to be a spectacular bust.
The Jets allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to running backs last season. This will be a low-scoring, slow-paced game, which makes it harder to project Johnson to find the end zone. Most importantly, the Steelers are going to start Jaylen Warren as their main back with Kenneth Gainwell mixing in on passing downs.
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Do not expect any meaningful volume from Johnson in his first NFL game. He will have to earn that as the season progresses.
New York’s defensive front specializes in stopping interior running plays, exactly what Johnson would see in his limited opportunities. The Jets’ linebacker corps is among the best in football at limiting explosive runs and creating negative plays.
Johnson is a clear bench stash until he establishes a meaningful role in Pittsburgh’s offense. This matchup offers no upside and significant downside risk for fantasy managers desperate for running back production. Wait for better opportunities and more defined usage patterns.
