Fantasy football challenges managers to make smart decisions each week, especially with unpredictable player performances and shifting roles. Evaluating matchups and understanding how game scripts can affect running backs is key to finding value.
With defenses tightening up and some players handling uncertain workloads, start/sit choices become even more critical. The details for this week’s analysis should spark curiosity and guide your lineup moves.
Start ‘Em: Woody Marks, Houston Texans (at TEN)
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Woody Marks is not going to outsnap Nick Chubb 60-10 this week. The split in this backfield has primarily been a product of game script.
At the same time, Marks is a far superior running back to Chubb at this point in their respective careers. He can and should continue to see more work than his veteran counterpart.
Marks overcame a difficult matchup against the Jaguars to post 16.1 fantasy points. He saw 17 opportunities, which marked his second-highest usage of the season.
Things should be much easier this week against a Tennessee Titans defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Hopefully, C.J. Stroud returns, and the Texans won’t be chasing on the scoreboard the entire game. A positive game script is better for Chubb, but it benefits both runners. We also saw Marks serve as the goal-line back last week, suggesting perhaps that is not Chubb’s job anymore.
Chubb is startable as well as a desperation RB3, but Marks could be in line for an RB1 performance.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at BUF)
Nothing makes my stomach turn more than recommending Rachaad White in fantasy lineups. One of the worst runners and most overrated players of the decade, White is purely a volume merchant who would barely see the ball if Bucky Irving could ever get back on the field.
Unfortunately, Irving does not seem close to returning. That means at least one more week of lead back to White.
The veteran has been disappointing over the past three weeks. His 10.4 fantasy points against the New England Patriots represented his highest output since Week 6. But there’s reason to believe he could be in for a solid outing this week.
The Bills are coming off a terrible loss to the Dolphins. Much like how the Lions took out their frustrations on the Commanders following their bad loss, look for this offense to rebound big time.
If the Bucs can keep the game within reach, Buffalo allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. If they fall behind, White is the passing down back. Either way, this game shapes up as one where the plodding, inefficient, and ineffective White can get there for fantasy managers.
Sit ‘Em: Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (at LAR)
Last week, the Arizona Cardinals did the impossible. They made the Seattle Seahawks’ backfield actually look competent.
Over the past two weeks, playing time has shifted back toward Kenneth Walker III. Zach Charbonnet’s snap share has been below 40% — a first in the first six weeks.
A positive game script kept both backs involved, as they combined for 14 carries. That is very unlikely to be the case against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Walker hasn’t hit double digits since Week 4. Charbonnet only gets there because he happens to fall into the end zone.
If you are going to start one of these backs, just as it’s been all season, it’s Charbonnet. He has the goal-line role and the touchdown upside. Neither back will be efficient. Charbonnet is your best bet because he can score. Walker is not finding the end zone unless he busts off a big run, which is unlikely to happen against this defense. Both belong on benches, though, if you can afford it.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (vs. GB)
Last week, the New York Giants’ backfield flipped heavily in favor of Tyrone Tracy Jr. The sophomore runner’s snap share jumped to 67%, making this a clear starter/backup split between him and Devin Singletary. Yet, once again, the veteran out-produced him.
Tracy’s highest-scoring fantasy outing of the season is 10.6 points, which he posted in Week 7 purely because he scored. Even with 16 opportunities against a bad Chicago Bears defense, Tracy managed a mere 8.1 fantasy points last week.
Now, Tracy gets a Green Bay Packers defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. And he will be asked to overcome this matchup with what will most likely be Russell Wilson at quarterback. Tracy is a low-floor/low-ceiling RB3 in Week 11.
