The quarterback landscape for Week 6 fantasy football presents several intriguing storylines that could make or break your lineup. Key matchups feature elite quarterbacks facing tough defenses while streaming options emerge from unexpected situations. Several prominent signal-callers are dealing with health concerns that could reshape the entire position hierarchy.
The waiver wire presents opportunities for fantasy managers looking to exploit favorable defensive matchups, with some backup quarterbacks potentially offering surprising value in what promises to be a pivotal week in the fantasy season.
Aaron Rodgers | PIT
Aaron Rodgers has some juice left, and that makes Pittsburgh frisky, but it doesn’t mean he is of any interest to us.
“Game manager” gets a bad rap, but I don’t know what else you want to call it. Rodgers is throwing just 27 passes per game and offers no rushing equity at this point. The last time we saw him was Week 4 in Ireland, a game in which he hit DK Metcalf on a slant for an 80-yard touchdown, the type of play that usually elevates a QB into the top 10 without much trouble.
He was QB21 in Week 4 because that was his only score, and he threw just 21 other passes.
For the season, 85.1% of Rodgers’ pass attempts have traveled under 10 yards downfield. He’s doing it well right now, but he’s a game manager, and our fantasy matchups need access to upside that he simply doesn’t have access to in this system.
Baker Mayfield | TB
We give Matthew Stafford the title of “WR King Maker,” and he’s earned it. He’s got the Calvin Johnson seasons in his back pocket, along with the Cooper Kupp historic campaign, and is now leading the Puka Nacua march to top those marks.
But I’m not sure that Baker Mayfield is that far behind. With him averaging 28.8 rushing yards per game in addition to elevating the talent around him, what’s not to like?
Tampa Bay’s lightning rod has yet to finish worse than QB13 this season and is anything but scared to exploit his advantages.
The primary advantage these days is, of course, rookie Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield is keenly aware that opponents are terrified of him down the field, and until they prove they have an answer, I fully expect him to continue to pick at that scab.
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For the season, 44.7% of his throws to Egbuka have traveled 15+ yards in the air, a massive spike from his rate to the rest of his teammates (21.1%), and I’d say it’s working.
He faces a 49ers defense this season that has allowed 21+ fantasy points to a QB in each of their past two road games (big bad Spencer Rattler back in Week 2 and the aforementioned Stafford last Thursday night) and ranks 23rd in pressure rate.
I doubt he’s as efficient as he was in Sunday’s last-second win over the Seahawks (29-of-33, 11.5 yards per pass), but 65% complete with multiple touchdowns and 25-35 rushing yards? That’s what he gives us weekly, and I’m confident he gives us low-end QB1 numbers in a very interesting matchup that only gets more favorable if San Francisco gets some of their offensive firepower back.
Bo Nix | DEN
Bo Nix is a frustrating player to manage.
We have proof that he possesses a versatile skill set; we just don’t usually get to see him pull all the levers in the same game.
Twice this season has he completed over 69% of his passes with multiple scores, but in the other three, he’s been held under 63% complete with a total of three scores on 104 attempts.
Twice this season has he challenged defenses vertically with an aDOT over eight yards, but in the other three, he’s been under 7.0.
Even within Sunday’s win, he threw a touchdown when out of the pocket, but completed just two of his other seven attempts when on the move.
His best game this season came in Week 4 against the Bengals, a perfect spot. He had an extra day to prepare for a home game against one of the worst defenses in the sport. If you want to wedge him into your top 12 in Week 7 (vs. Giants) and Week 8 (vs. Cowboys), I’ll allow it.
But I don’t have him ranked as such this week, as I’ll still give the Jets defense more respect than that in addition to being okay with fading a volatile QB like this in a goofy travel week to England.
Brock Purdy | SF
It’s been far from a level start to the season for Brock Purdy, and that might be undershooting it.
Not only has a toe injury resulted in three DNPs during the first five weeks of the season, but he was the only QB to have two games with multiple touchdown passes and multiple interceptions in September, despite missing half of San Francisco’s games over that stretch.
That means he has three straight multi-INT games in a row and has thrown the ball to the wrong team in each of his past five outings. I’m not a doctor, but a toe injury would seem to further limit his abilities as a runner, and with the sporadic recent passing results, I’m not sure what you’re hanging your hat on if you go this direction.
The 49ers are walking a very thin line when it comes to the health of their playmakers, and that makes Purdy’s value even more unstable. I’m not against you keeping tabs on this passing game (three favorable matchups during the fantasy playoffs after the Week 14 bye), but in their current state, you shouldn’t be counting on much.
Bryce Young | CAR
The touchdown pass thrown on a frozen rope with elite anticipation to Xavier Legette last week against the Dolphins was a work of art, but there simply aren’t enough plays like that. Bryce Young has failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of five contests this season and continues to struggle with consistency (5.5 yards per attempt).
I love that he’s weighing Tetairoa McMillan down with volume, and the surprisingly effective run game was great to see, but for fantasy purposes, what needs to happen, even in this perfect matchup, for Young to be worth a look?
He’d have to be close to perfect. The odds are good that the QB you’ve been using weekly will be active this week, and that makes exploiting this matchup (24+ fantasy points allowed to every quarterback they’ve faced this season) difficult.
Young ran for 40 yards in Week 1 against the Jaguars, and if you told me that was projectable, I’d listen. That would make him a slightly lesser version of Justin Fields, where the points have the potential to pile up via WR1 targets and cheap plays on the ground.
But that’s not the case. Over the past month, he has 14 rushing yards total, and if the big plays aren’t going to happen through the air for this offense (held without a 30-yard completion in three straight and four of five), I simply can’t get there.
I’ve juiced the numbers as much as I can with Dallas coming to town, and Young is my QB16 for Week 6.
Caleb Williams | CHI
Caleb Williams has had his moments this season, and I’m buying it to some degree.
His athleticism is being weaponized (5+ attempts in all four games), and he’s checking some boxes of improvement as a passer from his rookie season. So far in 2025, his completion percentage when throwing past the sticks is up to 56.8% from 43.5%, a sign that he is seeing the game at a higher level.
You love to see it.
I am, however, going to pump the brakes a little bit. His per-game production falls by 14% this season if you remove the Cowboys game, as he’s failed to throw for even 215 yards in any of those contests.
This matchup doesn’t scare me, and with the extra week of prep, I’m locking in Williams where I have him. If we continue to see growth, we could be looking at a top-five scorer at the position entering the middle of November.
Cameron Ward | TEN
Cam Ward makes a few plays every single week, and that should allow Titan fans to sleep soundly at night, but he’s been held without a top 20 fantasy finish this season, so even the best game of his rookie season to date might not be worth your time.
With just two touchdown passes on 164 attempts and 7.2 rushing yards per game, there is no single part of this profile that is up to our standards, even if the highlight plays seem to pop up weekly.
Dak Prescott | DAL
Dak Prescott has had a deep TD pass in both games since the CeeDee Lamb injury after failing to throw one prior.
Make it make sense.
His average depth of throw is up 15.7% over the past two weeks, and while that introduces more variance, that’s exactly what a more pocket-locked QB needs to do.
Do I think he’s going to account for four touchdowns every week? Of course not. He’s run hot in terms of playmaking in consecutive games, and if you want to sell high, I think it’d be pretty easy with Lamb coming back sooner than later and their record back to .500.
This is obviously a good matchup, but I encourage you to see the forest through the trees.
Your playoffs likely take place in Weeks 15-17. Not only does he have a tough go of it in the beginning of that stretch (Vikings, Chargers, and Commanders in a short-rest road game), but he gets the Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions in the preceding three weeks.
Prescott very well could be the reason you’re on a two-game winning streak. But I promise you that your leaguemates are seeing plenty of propaganda trending his way, and that’ll continue leading into this favorable spot.
If you’re willing to lose the battle of Week 6 to win the war of the season, considering a move is very much on the table.
Daniel Jones | IND
It may sound crazy given the success of the team, but Sunday was Daniel Jones’ first multi-TD pass effort of the season as his Colts steamrolled the Raiders.
Decisive Danny has completed over 67% of his passes in all five games this season, a level of efficiency that, in the past, would have been a bonus.
Currently, however, it’s helping supplement a lack of production on the ground. This team isn’t built for Jones to throw the ball all over the field, thus making the recent rushing limitations a major issue for his fantasy outlook (one total rushing yard over the past two weeks).
Given the resume, I’m more encouraged by the passing success than worried about the rushing numbers that have traditionally always been there. He slides just inside my top 10 at the position this week and is someone I’ll be comfortable starting for at least four of the five games ahead of Indianapolis’ Week 11 bye.
Dillon Gabriel | CLE
I thought we largely got what we expected from Dillon Gabriel in his first NFL start. His totals all ended up around what the betting markets projected, though there was some “given” yardage on the final drive as Minnesota looked to simply keep the clock running.
He did join Marcus Mariota and Joey Harrington as the only Oregon QBs to throw multiple TD passes in their debut this millennium, finding both of his tight ends in the end zone on Sunday.
The coaching staff was exploring what he was comfortable with. We got a few RPO looks, and we saw some composure under duress. From a real-life perspective, I was moderately impressed, but there isn’t really a clear path to mattering in our game, at least not in 2025.
Gabriel only completed three passes downfield and always profiled as more of a game manager than a box score savant. He might show the Dawg Pound what they want to see, but he’ll remain a bottom-10 QB until his usage changes significantly, which I don’t expect to occur until this time next year.
Drake Maye | NE
I’ve played fantasy for as long as I can remember, and I don’t remember being so entertained/impressed with a zero-touchdown effort as I was with Drake Maye in Buffalo on Sunday night.
Despite failing to account for a score for the first time this season and not clearing 30 pass attempts for the third time in four weeks, I walked away believing that he is, in fact, the closest thing this new crop of QBs has to Josh Allen.
Maye completed seven passes outside of the pocket in the victory, topping his previous season high of three. While these plays didn’t result in a ton of fantasy points (87 yards), they are the type of drive-extending plays that open up potential scoring opportunities.
I know I know, “potential” opportunities don’t pay the bills and they didn’t on Sunday, but the ability to succeed in those spots is rare.
He completed over 74% of his in-pocket passes for the fourth consecutive game, and the rushing ability is certainly there. We are in the process of seeing the pieces of this beautiful fantasy puzzle be put together, and you don’t want to jump ship just because his streak of three straight top-eight finishes at the position was snapped.
I can assure you: there aren’t eight QBs you’d rather have the rest of the way, especially when you remind yourself of the cupcake schedule that all AFC East teams have access to.
Geno Smith | LV
For the third time in four games, Geno Smith threw multiple interceptions, and he’s simply not threatening defenses down the field. Over the past two weeks, he’s misfired on seven of nine deep targets.
I like that he funneled more looks in the direction of Ashton Jeanty last week, but there’s no reason to look this direction in standard leagues. He completed as many passes to the Colts as the Raiders inside the red zone last week (seven attempts), further proof that his decision-making isn’t close to the level that we need from a QB who needs to pick up the vast majority of his points with his arm.
Jake Browning | CIN
If Maye was the author of the most impressive performance I’ve seen this season from a QB to finish outside of the top 20 at the position, Jake Browning’s Week 5 was the worst from a top 15 signal caller.
In the fourth quarter of a game that was well in hand, Browning turned 13 dropbacks into 18.6 fantasy points, saving a game where he turned 32 dropbacks into 0.5 fantasy points.
I’m an optimist at heart, and even I struggle to bring myself to believe he can unlock the talent around him because of what he did against Detroit’s janitorial staff late last week.
At best, Browning can sustain one receiver, but he’s not a player you can count on, even in two-QB formats.
Should Joe Flacco replace him this week, that’s a slightly different story.
Jalen Hurts | PHI
That’s now three straight multi-TD pass games for Jalen Hurts, a nice spike in production with his right arm after not throwing a single touchdown pass through the first two weeks of the season, but the rushing production disappeared into thin air on Sunday.
Two carries. Three yards.
This season, 44.3% of his rushing fantasy points have come when the Eagles are inside the opponents’ five-yard line, and while those snaps are valuable, it’s no lock that you’re getting a ton of those snaps in any given game.
As a fantasy option, I really don’t think there’s anything to worry about. Yes, when the rushing dries up, it’s scary, but the fact that 27 of his 37 targets (73%) against the Broncos went to one of his top three pass catchers suggests we have enough paths to points to be comfortable with Hurts maintaining his Tier 1 title.
In his lone game against these G-Men last season, he completed 10-of-14 passes for 114 yards and a score while also rushing in a pair of touchdowns. He’s my QB2 this week, and I think you’re starting your Week 6 with a big number on Thursday.
Jared Goff | DET
How crazy is it that Jared Goff has more games this season with a completion percentage over 79% than games in which he doesn’t?
The matchup with the Chiefs (under 12 fantasy points allowed to the opposing starting QB in three of their past four games) is obviously a different beast than the Bengals he laid to rest last week, and that is what I’ve got Goff on the outside looking in at my top 12, even if he shares a tier with those just inside the cut.
My concern is the league-high 45.9% pressure rate from the defending AFC champs. Detroit could look to beat that with the running game and probably should. If they don’t, we could be talking about betting on Goff while on the move, something that hasn’t exactly played into our favor recently (four out-of-pocket TD passes over his past 29 regular-season games).
Maybe quick passes to the running backs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are enough to get Goff over 300 yards and put him in the starting mix, but I’d rather take my chances on either QB in the Colts/Cardinals game or Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball in this one.
Jaxson Dart | NYG
Jaxson Dart has moxie, and that’s great, but we aren’t yet at the point where I’m willing to translate it to fantasy points.
The rushing is great, but the passing is limited. Dart has thrown 60 passes this season and, despite the freedom of movement rules, he doesn’t have a 20-yard completion.
In many situations, I’d write that off as a weird variance, but with Malik Nabers out for the season and limited big-play threats filling that void, I fear it’s set to be a trend, not a weird blip.
I think we are laying the groundwork for a huge 2026 season. Games like Sunday, where the rookie funnels 6-7 targets to four different players, are good stepping stones. They encourage us about his willingness to take what is given to him and move the chains.
I’m ultra-impressed by this profile but I don’t like how his floor/ceiling projections line up for the second half of this season and certainly not in this matchup.
Jayden Daniels | WAS
I saw everything I needed and then some from Jayden Daniels in his return from the knee injury that cost him two games.
In the win over the Chargers last week, he ran eight times for 39 yards and closed the deal with something of a fadeaway pass, out of the pocket, right on the money to Deebo Samuel in the end zone.
Chicago owns a vulnerable defense and an offense with some upside. I expect this to be a fun end to the week, and I have both QBs ranked as top-eight options for that reason.
Joe Flacco | CLE
Well, this is exciting, right?
Joe Flacco is a major upgrade in Cincinnati, but don’t take that to mean he’ll walk into fantasy lineups. We are talking about a QB in his final years who offers nothing with his legs and has no practice time with his new team.
Could he potentially have some weeks where his statistical output mirrors that of a Matthew Stafford type? Certainly, but he’ll need to be close to perfect, and the upcoming schedule (Packers, Steelers, and Jets) doesn’t really allow for that.
READ MORE: Bengals HC Reveals Real Reason Behind Shocking Joe Flacco Trade
It’s worth noting that the schedule softens, defensive matchup-wise at least, as we approach December, but then we start flirting with the Joe Burrow timeline if Cincy is close to competitive.
I’d let someone else do the Flacco thing. I don’t see him being a top 15 QB over the next month, which means you either already have a better option or will have the ability to stream your way to at least that level of production.
Jordan Love | GB
Entering the season, I was hopeful that the stability of Jordan Love would help elevate at least one of his receivers to the weekly fantasy conversation.
Instead, he’s been infected with their inconsistencies, something that I was unaware was contagious.
Love has finished with under 190 passing yards twice this season while clearing 290 in the other two. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue (with an over 72% completion rate in three of four) as much as the volume risk.
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Week 1 vs. Lions: 22 pass attempts
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Week 2 vs. Commanders: 31 pass attempts
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Week 3 at Browns: 25 pass attempts
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Week 4 at Cowboys: 43 pass attempts
I’m confident in Love this week because I’m confident in anyone who is on an NFL roster facing the Bengals, but I’ll admit that I worry about these peaks and valleys as the season progresses.
If you asked me to take a positive or negative stance on Love for the remainder of 2022, I’d lean toward the former because I trust him in scoring position. Over his past 27 games, Love has completed 66.4% of his red zone passes with 41 scores against just two interceptions.
Neither the Bears nor the Ravens scares me defensively right now, and those two make up three of Green Bay’s last four games this fantasy season.
Josh Allen | BUF
The Patriots beat the Bills, but the fantasy storylines at the QB position were flipped.
Maye didn’t account for a touchdown despite playing maybe the best game of his career, while Josh Allen made a big error, yet finished with over 300 yards of offense on his ledger and a pair of scores.
Allen is elite, and there is no two-way about that. His willingness to find Dalton Kincaid in slivers of space, rather than always trying to make the hero play, is a nod to his maturation process. It’s decisions like that, as well as others, that contribute to why he owns the highest floor in the sport.
He’s completed over 70% of his passes in four of five games and has a 19+ yard scamper in four straight. New England may have won in Buffalo last week, but they didn’t provide anything close to a blueprint for how to slow No. 17.
Allen is the closest thing we have to inevitable in today’s game, and with his Bills now being challenged in the division, I think it’s safe to say that we will get at least 17 weeks of watching him put on a masterclass in statistical dominance.
I’m not sure where he’ll be drafted in 2026, but I promise you that the “wait on QB” narrative will have at least one exception.
Justin Fields | NYJ
Similar to Daniel Jones, Justin Fields was more of a passer than a rusher on Sunday, and I liked what I saw.
No, 46 pass attempts isn’t going to be the new norm, and you shouldn’t want it to be, but he took advantage of a favorable matchup. Fields completed eight of 10 third-down passes, showing that he at least needs to be planned for as a passer in those drive-extending spots.
There was some garbage-time boosting of numbers, but that’s part of the deal when you roster a QB on a below-average team.
I find it unlikely that we see an efficient day through the air in this much more difficult matchup, and we just saw these Broncos bottle up the most run-oriented offense in the league. There are a handful of quarterbacks this week in tough spots (Goff and Patrick Mahomes facing one another, Nix against the Jets, and Dart squaring off with the Eagles), and they all occupy a tier just outside of my top 10.
For the record, I have Fields atop that tier, but I do think there’s a real chance this is his worst full game of the season to date (Week 2 in Buffalo doesn’t count).
Justin Herbert | LAC
I don’t think this is a hot take, but Week 6 could easily be Justin Herbert’s week, and I have him ranked as high as I ever will (QB3).
The offensive line is crumbling around him, and he’s now on his third running back. Jim Harbaugh had designed this offense to operate as the top PROE unit in the league from the start of the season, and now his hand is seemingly being forced to lean even further into that plan.
Through five weeks, the Dolphins rank no higher than 26th in:
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Opponent passer rating
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Opponent completion percentage
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Opponent yards per pass
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Opponent YAC per reception
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Opponent pass TD%
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INT%
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Opponent first downs per pass attempt
So, you’re telling me that we get access to a high-pedigree QB with three viable WRs at his disposal and a 34-38 pass projection against that defense?
It’ll be a chalky DFS build, but that doesn’t make it wrong. The offensive line struggles have me thinking that the quick pass may be prioritized, which has me leaning toward Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen in those lineups over Quentin Johnston, but I’m not sure there is a wrong way to do this.
Bryce Young managed just 12 fantasy points in this matchup last week: he’s the first QB that Miami has held under 23.
Kyler Murray | ARI
We are five weeks into this season, and I’m not the least bit confident that we know what we are going to get in this spot.
On one hand, the Colts have crippled poor opposing quarterbacks (Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Newton, and Geno Smith are of no real interest to us, and they averaged 7.7 fantasy points against Indy). Still, on the other hand, we’ve seen Nix (20.2) and Matthew Stafford (27.4) have success.
Which bucket does Kyler Murray get placed into?
Your instinct wants to say the latter, and the numbers suggest the latter.
Arizona has already played New Orleans, Carolina, and Tennessee, all of whom figure to be in the mix for the top overall pick this spring.
Murray’s next finish for a week better than QB12 will be his first.
“Outlook not so clear”.
He’s reached 25 rushing yards in every game this season and has a 30+ yard completion in four of five. That potential is something we are aware of, and that’s why he’s in the QB1 mix. But I can’t just erase what we’ve seen thus far, which is why he’s my QB2 in this game and also checks in behind a pocket-locked Matthew Stafford (at BAL).
Mac Jones | SF
Is Mac Jones a rich man’s version of early-season Joe Flacco?
Kyle Shanahan has leaned on his backup QB for 43 passes per game in his three starts, and that speaks to his confidence in Jones, given the moving pieces in terms of the health of his pass catchers.
Against the Rams on Thursday night, a road game on a short week and without the top four pass catchers from the preseason (George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings), Jones completed 33 passes for 342 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
He dominated the scripted first drive (five-for-five for 77 yards and a TD) and never let up. I’m not sure if we should give him or Shanahan the majority of the credit, but they clearly identified Kendrick Bourne as a mismatch.
Yes, that Kendrick Bourne.
Out of nowhere, he became the third player this season with a 10-catch, 140-receiving-yard game, joining Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase.
Piling up numbers is as much about taking advantage of spots as it is raw talent, and the former feels safer with the 49ers’ infrastructure than any other team. The hope is that Brock Purdy can return from this toe injury, but if that’s not the case, Jones has forced himself into the streaming conversation, even without adding upside with his legs.
Marcus Mariota | WAS
Marcus Mariota filled in admirably for Jayden Daniels (knee), and that makes him worthy of consideration should the franchise QB be forced into another missed game at some point this season, and a favorable matchup presents itself.
The former second overall pick threw three touchdown passes on 48 attempts and had a 20+ yard rush in both of his starts. The upside isn’t remarkably high (363 passing yards across those two games, both in reasonably favorable spots), but the ability to pick up those cheap points on the ground is still there for the soon-to-be 32-year-old.
For those keeping track at home, the Commanders get the Giants in Week 15 and the Cowboys on Christmas Day (Week 17).
Matthew Stafford | LAR
Another masterclass in the art of piling up numbers by Matthew Stafford took place on Thursday night as he became the first player since Joe Burrow (2021) to post consecutive games with 375+ passing yards and zero interceptions.
How much of it is real?
It’s really not all that complicated.
Stafford has excelled at featuring his most trusted options for 1.5 decades at this point, and that’s what we saw last week (71.7% of his throws were directed at Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, or Kyren Williams). In the right matchups where those players can consistently uncover, his floor is exceptionally high.
That is expected to be the case this week, given the team’s long rest and the fact that it will be facing a banged-up Ravens defense. I’ve got Stafford ranked as a low-end QB1 in this spot, the highest I’ve had him this season, but the lack of rushing production can’t be blindly overlooked.
More so than those routinely ranking in this range, Stafford relies on his teammates. Without any production to chase on the ground, the ceiling/floor combination simply doesn’t math in the same way.
I’m on board with playing Stafford this week, but I’m not yet ready to label him a weekly option. The schedule isn’t daunting moving forward, and that’s encouraging. That said, if you can pawn him off as a weekly starter, I’d do it.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL
I was hopeful that we’d see Michael Penix build on his finish to last season, but we aren’t getting any of it.
In his four games this season, he’s totaled just three touchdown passes while misfiring on 19-of-26 deep passes (zero touchdowns and one interception). The rushing has disappeared (21 yards in Week 1 against the Buccaneers, 10 yards since), and while he’s funneling looks to Drake London, that’s all he’s doing that matters in our game.
The Falcons have games against the Dolphins and Panthers before Thanksgiving: the best-case scenario is that we see some signs of life in this game that give us some confidence in using him as a streamer in those spots.
Patrick Mahomes | KC
I don’t get it when people look at a banana taped to a piece of paper and call it art. Still, I’m guessing those same people don’t understand why Patrick Mahomes is trending toward a player who has the potential to absolutely break fantasy during the second half of this season.
Through five weeks, 32.1% of his fantasy points have been scored on the ground. That speaks not only to his athleticism being on full display some three months ahead of schedule, but also the limitations that have come with the rotating door at receiver up to this point.
But that’s changing.
Xavier Worthy is back to being used as a full-time player, Travis Kelce showed some juice with a score last week, and Rashee Rice’s season debut is coming.
Mahomes has put up some crazy postseason stat lines in the past, when he’s pushed the envelope across the board, when the season was on the line. Why wouldn’t we expect something similar during the second half of this season?
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2023 Super Bowl: 46 passes, 9 rushes, 399 combined yards
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2024 AFC Title Game: 8 different players catch a pass, 11 rushes, 2 rushing touchdowns
Right now, he’s ripping off chunk gains with his legs, and those running lanes are only going to open wider as he continues to get more support.
I’m not itching to play Mahomes this week in a tough spot against an offense that can control the clock. If he struggles, though, you can bet that I’ll be offering trades left and right to get access to him for the second half of the fantasy season.
Sam Darnold | SEA
We were all worried about Sam Darnold leaving the insulation provided by Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, but he’s basically a carbon copy of the 2024 version of himself through five weeks.
2024 Darnold
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8.5 air yards per pass
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2.2% interception rate
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23.3% deep pass rate
2025 Darnold
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8.4 air yards per pass
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2.2% interception rate
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21.6% deep pass rate
He’s sending 8.6 targets per game to his alpha receiver and currently holds a deep passer rating that is 31.4 points higher than what it was last season. With the Jags being a turnover-based defense that thrives on big plays, how uncomfortable will they be able to make Darnold?
My guess?
Not very.
Not only is Jacksonville on a short week, but for an aggressive unit, they blitz at a below-average rate. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the eighth-best offensive line when it comes to limiting pressure in non-blitz situations.
Darnold has one rush attempt over the past month and is averaging just 26.8 pass attempts per game. I like him more than the rest of the industry seems to this week, and he’s a potential DFS stack option with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I can’t swallow the volume limitations in standard league.
Spencer Rattler | NO
Props to Spencer Rattler for getting in the win column on Sunday afternoon against the Giants. He’s been battling, and it’s always good to see work like that finally pay off, but he’s nowhere near the fantasy radar, and that’s very unlikely to change.
He deserves credit for hitting Rashid Shaheed on the 87-yard touchdown, but without that, we are looking at 30 passing attempts for 138 yards and zero scores.
This team simply doesn’t move the ball consistently enough to elevate a player like this. Rattler has completed just four of 17 end zone throws, and while there is some mobility in the 25-year-old’s profile, it’s not enough to single-handedly make him viable.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX
This is why we love this game.
It’s also why you should check out this section weekly: information changes faster than the weather, and it’s important to stay on top of things.
Last week, I was complaining about a lack of shot plays and the vanishing nature of Trevor Lawrence’s rushing production, and now I’m here to praise both.
In the Chiefs’ upset on Monday night, Lawrence connected with both of his standouts on 30+-yard passes and scored 15.4 points with his legs (23.5 points were on the table, had a goal-line stretch resulted in a score instead of a lost fumble).
I’m still skeptical, especially in a matchup against a defense that hasn’t allowed 17 QB fantasy points on a Sunday yet this season. Still, there is now some renewed faith in Lawrence as a streaming option as we get into the middle of bye-week season.
This matchup isn’t great, but before the end of November, we’ve got the Raiders, Cardinals, and Titans all on the schedule. Flacco is going to be a popular add now that he is a Bengal, but I’d take Lawrence over him, and I’m not sure it’s all that close.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
In his first game post-Tyreek Hill injury, Tua Tagovailoa was … well, Tua Tagovailoa.
He completed three-quarters of his passes and connected on three touchdown passes, his first game with that many scores in more than 10 months. It was his fourth straight game with multiple TD tosses, but more interesting to me was the season-high average depth of throw.
We know that the rushing numbers aren’t ever going to be there for Tagovailoa, and that makes the downfield passing attack more critical for him than for most.
While I’m encouraged by the idea, I’m concerned about just how sticky it is when Darren Waller is your secondary deep threat. Sam Darnold (at JAX) and Bryce Young (vs. DAL) are two pocket-oriented passers that I’d much rather roll the dice on this week.
