Quarterback play continues to shape the landscape of fantasy football, and this week’s matchups offer plenty of intrigue. Some signal callers are rising into must-start territory, while others are slipping toward risky streamer status. Defensive trends, offensive balance, and game scripts are all key factors influencing these projections. Here’s how the latest tier of options line up heading into Week 5.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at SEA)
This Seattle Seahawks defense is the driving force behind their three-game win streak and has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season.
Can they quiet a Tampa Bay Buccaneerss offense that put points on the board in every quarter last weekend in a valiant effort against the reigning Super Bowl champions?
The Seahawks blitz as little as anyone in the league (31st in blitz rate both this season and since the beginning of 2022), and all Baker Mayfield has done in his past eight games, when not blitzed, is fire 13 touchdowns against three interceptions.
The gutsy QB has thrown multiple TD passes in three of four games this season after closing last regular season with a streak of five straight. The two 70-yard touchdowns last week obviously ballooned a stat line that was largely underwhelming, but that’s always on the board of possibilities when you’re surrounded by the type of talent that resides in Tampa Bay.
This matchup worries me enough to knock Mayfield out of my top 10 for the week, but he remains a top 15 option and is not someone I’d bench for a streamer in a plus spot (i.e., Jaxson Dart in New Orleans or Tua Tagovailoa in Carolina).
Bo Nix | DEN (at PHI)
Bo Nix took advantage of a great spot on Monday night against the Cincinnati Bengals team that already wants the season to end, and that was great to see, but forgive me if that wasn’t enough to sell me on him now being the top 10 guy we drafted him to be as he heads to Philadelphia.
Forget the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense for a minute: their offense can be a fantasy limitation device as well. Nix was able to tear up Cincinnati on Monday night in part because the Denver Broncos had the ball for nearly 38 minutes.
Philadelphia, not surprisingly, is the leader in average time of possession since the beginning of last season, and that alone puts Nix in a bind to repeat his success.
In terms of the matchup, the Eagles’ pressure could ruin this game. Nix’s struggles this season have come when he is pushed outside of the pocket, as his passer rating in such situations sits at 52.4, down from 97.5 as a rookie.
I expect this to be a low-scoring contest, with Denver viewing it as a situation where the less they ask of Nix, the better. He’s not a top-15 signal-caller for me in Week 5.
Brock Purdy | SF (at LAR)
I’m no expert, really, at anything but especially injury analysis, but I thought Brock Purdy looked great physically after a two-game absence (toe).
He was steady in the pocket and, more importantly, seemed to fully trust his teammates. For better or worse, he didn’t hesitate to put his playmakers in a position to make plays. His blind faith in his teammates is encouraging to me on many levels.
First is the obvious. Purdy has some athleticism to his game, but he’s going to have to make his bones as a passer, and the willingness to take shots allows him access to a ceiling.
The less obvious is the long-term outlook. I like Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall as much as anyone, but this group of pass catchers is going to get better as this season progresses. The hope is that George Kittle is back before Halloween, and that alone makes this offense even more dangerous.
What about Brandon Aiyuk?
What about a late bye (Week 14) that could allow this offense to get healthy and peak at the right time?
- Week 15 vs. Titans
- Week 16 at Colts
- Week 17 vs. Bears
I’m OK if you don’t want to put all of your eggs in the Purdy basket right now, a matchup on short rest against a tough divisional opponent, but readers of this article need to be in a position to win their league this winter, and having Purdy rostered could well prove to be a part of that equation.
Further helping to lower his value down the stretch of the season is the fact that some of the game’s finest at the position run into some serious hurdles. Lamar Jackson has to go to Lambeau in Week 17, Josh Allen closes out this fantasy season with games against the Cleveland Browns and Eagles, and Justin Herbert has to deal with the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans over the final three weeks.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs MIA)
Bryce Young was a story of last winter in fantasy circles because it appeared that he had turned a corner. The former first overall pick put up some gaudy numbers, and when the team added Tetairoa McMillan in April, the sleeper buzz hit a fever pitch.
We might have jumped the gun.
Young has been held under 155 passing yards in three of four games, and with just 13 rushing yards over the past three weeks, there really is no path for him to matter in standard formats.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer
If you squint and want to leverage this matchup against a Miami Dolphins defense that is on short rest in a two-QB league, more power to you. Miami’s limitations on the defensive side of things are essentially the equivalent of what Young has done at the QB position.
Over the past two weeks, Young has thrown 54 passes, and exactly none of them have resulted in a gain longer than 23 yards. I don’t trust his quality or quantity when it comes to attempts, and that makes him a near-impossible sell, even in a cushy spot like this one.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (at BAL)
C.J. Stroud saw two of his 28 passes result in touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans over the weekend, a nice turn of events for a player who saw two of 89 have such a result through three weeks.
I think this is more of a matchup thing than Stroud truly figuring anything out, but that might be enough for sharp fantasy managers. I don’t have him ranked near the starting tier this week and won’t unless the spot is perfect.
- Week 10 vs. Jaguars
- Week 11 at Titans
- Week 15 vs. Cardinals
- Week 16 vs. Raiders
Stroud isn’t going to be a reliable option, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be helpful. If you’re streaming the position, Houston’s volatile QB could well put you in position to win your league down the stretch.
He’s far from perfect, but with a 35+ yard completion in three straight and 4+ rushing attempts in every game, there is enough meat on this bone to remain on your radar.
Cameron Ward | TEN (at ARI)
It’s impossible not to root for Cam Ward. He seems like a good kid who is in a no-win spot and is just trying to learn on the fly as best he can.
This truly feels like that Bambi meme where he’s trying to steady himself on ice.
It’s uneasy, there’s flailing, and usually, he falls. But there are pockets of stability. There are glimpses into a player that I expect to be around for a long time. There is hope for this to be a franchise savior.
I do think fantasy upside is possible in the long term, so I wouldn’t go punting off those dynasty shares just because Ward finished his first month as a pro with 614 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions while completing just 51.2% of his throws.
There is a reckless play or two per game that he makes that forces your mind to wonder about the future. That play came early in Houston last week with a 33-yard, cross-body, only-Brett-Favre-would-try-this shot to Elic Ayomanor.
If this team can support the former Miami star, we might have something as soon as 2026, but there’s no need to look in this direction over the next three months.
Carson Wentz | MIN (at CLE)
All things considered, I thought Carson Wentz played fine in Ireland against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Of course, the problem would be “all things considered.”
The Minnesota Vikings had no answer for the front of the Steelers, and while I’d write that off as a matchup thing, it’s not as if things get any easier with this week’s AFC North opponent.
Wentz completed his first 11 passes last week, six courtesy of Justin Jefferson. Embracing his WR1 is critical to his statistical profile, and his mobility is non-zero, but there isn’t really a path for him to consistently hit lineups. The ground game doesn’t demand enough respect from defenses, and that means they can work on limiting the efficiency of Jefferson.
He’s good enough to keep Minnesota’s pieces viable, but there should be no interest here in standard league types.
Dak Prescott | DAL (at NYJ)
Dak Prescott’s fantasy stock has been a little up-and-down (not a top 20 QB in either loss, but a top 6 QB in the other two games), but outside of limited mobility, it’s really hard to poke holes in this profile.
He’s completed north of 73% of his passes in three straight games, and that efficiency is coming on high-end volume. Prescott has completed 30+ passes in each of those contests, tying him for the third-longest run since 2019 (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are the two names ahead of him), and he’s found a nice balance.
Ready for this?
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 5 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
He’s pacing for BOTH the second-highest deep throw rate of his career while also tracking for the lowest average depth of throw.
How crazy is that?
His pass diet is varied in such a way that he can continue to produce QB1-level results, even without the rushing bump. There is some matchup risk in this spot, especially with CeeDee Lamb expected to sit again, but would I rather have his floor in this current role than mess with Nix in Philadelphia or Mayfield in Seattle?
Yeah, I think I would.
Daniel Jones | IND (vs LV)
Daniel Jones’ 2025 resume is a compelling argument for why versatility should be viewed as a priority number one when ranking quarterbacks, but it also highlights the volatility that can come with it.
In Weeks 1-2, Jones ran for 28 yards and saw two of his 63 passes result in TDs (sacked twice).
In Weeks 3-4, Jones ran for 26 yards and saw two of his 58 passes result in TDs (sacked twice).
Pretty similar, right?
In Weeks 1-2, he scored 52.3 fantasy points, topping Allen and Herbert.
In Weeks 3-4, he scored 26.2 fantasy points, falling behind Geno Smith and Wentz.
The efficiency was nearly identical (in Weeks 1-2, he completed 71.4% of his passes and in Weeks 3-4, 72.4%), but he ran for three scores with zero interceptions in the first wave of games compared to zero rushing scores and two turnovers in the second set.
It truly is a game of inches. Heck, a few more inches of control from A.J. Mitchell and Jones get four more points added to that second number.
I thought the Las Vegas Raiders showed well for themselves against a similarly athletic QB last week in Caleb Williams (one TD pass on 37 attempts with just 13 yards allowed on eight carries). By no means is this a defense I’m scared of, but Maxx Crosby is a game-wrecker at the highest of levels.
Jones is firmly in that third tier of signal-caller for me this week, a range that goes from QB11-16.
He’s a fine option, but not one that comes without risk.
Dillon Gabriel | CLE (vs MIN)
Reports surfaced on Tuesday that the Browns will shift to Dillon Gabriel this week over Joe Flacco, a move that felt inevitable.
Cleveland is going nowhere fast, so why not get a look at the rookie?
Superflex managers should take note just because any starting QB has a path to lineups in that format, but I’m not expecting his numbers to look drastically different from Flacco’s, and that’s of little use in redraft leagues.
Drake Maye | NE (at BUF)
Drake Maye has now finished three straight weeks as a top 10 QB, through multiple TD passes in each of those contests, and unlocking different parts of his game in each instance.
- Week 2 at MIA: 10 rush attempts, TD
- Week 3 vs. PIT: 11-of-14 with a TD pass against the blitz
- Week 4 vs. CAR: 11.9 yards per pass with a Stefon Diggs revival
The Patriots are leaning into his versatility much more this season than last, and that opens up a world of possibilities.
Is he a Tier 2 QB already?
Does he sit at the top of Tier 2?
We saw him throw for 261 yards and two scores while running for 30 yards against these Bills last season in his lone full contest against the divisional rival. Maye is no longer a matchup play; he’s a must-play in all formats, with his spot in the top 10 safe.
He’s my QB7 this week in a game that could require him to be overly aggressive to keep up.
Geno Smith | LV (at IND)
The Raiders got their brakes beaten off in Week 3 against the Washington Commanders. In that game, Smith hooked up with Tre Tucker for three scores, and those three passes accounted for 27% of his September fantasy points.
Yikes.
This season, when pressured, Smith has turned 57 dropbacks into just 249 yards, 12 sacks, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. Through the first two weeks of this season, the Colts ranked dead last in non-blitz pressure rate (16.3%). But over the past two weeks, that number has increased to 42%, which is the fifth-best rate.
Smith shouldn’t be considered a viable option in any single-quarterback format, and, to be honest, I wouldn’t be excited about firing him up as a QB2 this week.
That’s saying something when you consider that there are only 28 teams in action this week.
J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at CLE)
A Week 2 high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up against the Falcons.
I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs at the moment.
Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.
This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2023.
The Vikings will continue to bet on 32-year-old Wentz to steady the ship for now, something that fantasy managers are right to be wary of.
Jake Browning | CIN (vs DET)
Week 3 felt like rock bottom until Week 4 happened.
Jake Browning is struggling to execute much of anything right now, so much so that Ja’Marr Chase is hardly running down the field. They are opting to keep their WR1 — and maybe the best pass catcher in the league — close to the line of scrimmage because if his route extended too far, the play is at serious risk of being over before he turns his head to look for a target.
If the Bengals opt to trade for a quarterback, that player will have my attention due to the talent on this roster. Still, Browning has proven incapable of leveraging his teammates, and that means he’s not even worth a look in two-QB leagues, even with four teams on a bye.
That’s hard to do.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs DEN)
Just because it’s different doesn’t make it wrong.
In this passing league, Jalen Hurts has thrown 25+ passes in just one game this season and has failed to throw a TD pass twice.
He’s also averaging 4.4 yards per carry, nothing special, and a mark that is below his career average.
That’s not exactly a positive résumé, and yet, he’s been a QB1 in three of four weeks.
Hurts has cleared six fantasy points with his legs in every game this season and showed elite composure against the blitz in last week’s win over the Bucs (7-of-9 with two touchdowns).
He didn’t complete a pass in the second half because he didn’t need to. Hurts’ statistical profile has, in my opinion, more room to grow than regress, and that locks him into the top tier at the position without much of a second thought.
Jared Goff | DET (at CIN)
This Detroit Lions offense bears an uncanny resemblance to the 2024 juggernaut (124 points over the past three games), something that was hard to imagine less than a month ago, when the Packers dominated them from start to finish.
The problem is that they are getting there in a similar fashion to last season.
They’ve managed 72 points over the past two weeks without Goff having a 30-yard pass and just 370 passing yards on his ledger. This team can kill you in a million ways, and Goff’s right arm is third on that list.
He could 100% expose this porous defense that is working on a short week; it’s just a matter of what he is asked to do, and I’m worried that he hasn’t been heavily relied upon in consecutive games and really boosted his Week 2 numbers in “message-sending to Ben Johnson” garbage time.
I have Goff ranked as my QB11 this weekend, ranked just ahead of QBs in tough spots (Mayfield in Seattle, for example) and behind QBs with more versatility in plus-spots (Mahomes in Jacksonville and Jones hosting Vegas).
Jaxson Dart | NYG (at NO)
We will see how the league adjusts to the Jaxson Dart plan and how the New York Giants react to those adjustments, but the first impression was a strong one for fantasy purposes.
Russell Wilson was QB30 in Week 3 with 5.1 points, a total that Dart cleared with his 15-yard rush TD on the first drive in his first start.
I was ready to push all my chips into the middle of the table based on what I saw early. He was schemed up rush attempts and was locking in on Malik Nabers when he took to the air (both completions during that first scoring drive went to WR1).
As I was preparing a metaphor-laden post, it happened: Nabers tried to plant and elevate for a deep pass and couldn’t really leave the ground.
The budding star tore his ACL and ended his season on the play, an injury that certainly dials back my optimism for Dart moving forward.
That’s not to say he can’t produce. The shovel pass to Theo Johnson required some strong ball-handling, and the little details like that were impressive from the rookie, but without an alpha pass catcher, we are asking him to be 90% of Allen.
He’s not 90% of Allen.
This is almost too good a matchup to get a great feel for things. We saw New York load up Cam Skattebo with work in a neutral game script last week, and if we are looking at under 35 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts), it’s going to be difficult to crack the top 15 at the position.
After this week, New York gets Philadelphia twice and Denver once.
I enjoy what Dart brings to the table, but I’ll be enjoying it from a distance when it comes to fantasy.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (at LAC)
Is it possible that Marcus Mariota bought Jayden Daniels extra time to recover by leading the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders in Week 3?
I think so. That’s not to suggest that Daniels’ knee injury isn’t a real concern; I just think it’s plausible that we won’t see many limitations this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense presents a real challenge, but not nearly enough for me to consider pivoting should Daniels return to action this weekend (worth noting that Washington gets an extra day of rest/prep heading into Week 6 with a Monday night game against the Bears due up next).
Daniels has cleared 19 fantasy points in 14 of 17 career games when dropping back at least 20 times, and five of those instances saw him score over 75% of his points with his arm. If you want to dock him a spot or two in your weekly rankings, be my guest, but it’s not nearly enough to consider sitting him if active.
Joe Burrow | CIN (vs DET)
We spent all offseason wondering aloud if Joe Burrow was the top quarterback in the second tier or if his elite passing numbers were enough to put him in the class of the athletic marvels at the position.
They were fun conversations to have, but they don’t matter now. Burrow (turf toe) is going to be out until December at the very least, and that means he’s going to be cut loose in all leagues that don’t have enough IR room for him. And even then, we aren’t sure the Bengals will be in a position to compete when Burrow returns to the practice field.
I want to use this brutal injury as a launching point. Football is as physically taxing a team sport as there is. That’s obviously more true for some positions than others, but it’s a gladiator sport where everyone on the field isn’t far from a significant injury.
The four quarterbacks drafted ahead of Burrow this summer are much more athletic, and their ability to run often gets tied to an increase in injury risk. I understand the train of thought: they invite contact when they are on the move.
That’s accurate.
But what doesn’t get looked at enough is the other side of the coin: that quarterback is also capable of escaping trouble spots at a higher rate than average. No one is catching Daniels from behind, so while he is at risk of taking punishment, it’s usually coming head-on, and in those spots, he has the opportunity to make a business decision.
I’m not arguing that Burrow is more likely to get hurt than the Danielses of the world, though it is worth noting that he missed six games in 2020 and seven more in 2023. I’m arguing against the assumption that athletic quarterbacks are reckless investments.
Are they risky? Yes. Because they play football. Allen’s propensity to take hits is worrisome to the eye, but he’s been huge and taking hits his entire life. There’s something to be said for knowing how to do it, and that’s a big reason why I’ll never shy away from that prototype.
Joe Flacco | CLE (vs MIN)
This just felt like a ticking time bomb.
Joe Flacco has thrown at least 34 passes in every game this season, and that’s the only way for a QB like this to flirt with mattering, but he hasn’t been close to doing that.
- 2 TD passes
- 6 INTs
- 160 attempts
Cleveland goes on bye in Week 9, and reports are that the team is going to give Gabriel a run at the starting job this week.
The move makes plenty of sense for the franchise, though I don’t think it does much of anything for fantasy managers: Quinshon Judkins remains viable, and everyone else is risky at best.
It’s Judkins and then a bunch of “no thank yous” on this roster.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs NE)
It was a slow burn, but Allen got his Buffalo Bills home against the New Orleans Saints, and he held serve for his fantasy managers. Despite being held in check for the middle 40 minutes of this contest, Allen finished with 209 yards and two scores through the air, on top of his 10.5 fantasy points as a rusher.
The flat target share for this team highlights the growth that Allen has made. None of his teammates saw more than five targets, and after an early error, Allen largely played within himself.
That’s not great news for DFS managers chasing those crazy weeks, but it means an elevated floor, and redraft managers are perfectly okay with that, given how rare his skill set is.
Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in three of his past four games against the Patriots and 40 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts) in five of six versus the divisional foe. I fully expect the former to be extended, which means you’ll play him without a second thought, as is your standard operating procedure.
Justin Fields | NYJ (vs DAL)
It kind of feels like the Jets have their guardrails up on Justin Fields, and considering that they know far more about their QB1 than I do, I’ll trust what they are doing.
There is zero desire to challenge the defense down the field. The majority of Fields’ deep passes last week in Miami came in the fourth quarter when they were essentially out of options.
I have my questions about a player like this in the NFL, but for fantasy, we can make it work. Jackson and Fields are the only QBs with multiple 27-point games this season, and in his two full starts, he’s been efficient.
In each of those contests, he’s cleared 14 fantasy points with his legs while completing north of 72% of his passes. The air game isn’t exciting, but it doesn’t really need to be so long as he is healthy and running.
I think there’s a lot of risk in this profile moving forward, but not this week. The Cowboys can’t rush the passer and thus need to blitz. Fields is likely to run into his fair share of sacks, but when he breaks contain, that 10-yard scramble to move the chains could be a field-flipping 40-yard gain.
Fields is a top-10 QB for me with relative ease in this perfect spot.
Justin Herbert | LAC (vs WAS)
Is it possible that we put the cart before the horse with Herbert?
Jim Harbaugh has opened up this offense in a dramatic way, and we are looking at an offense with a versatile RB next to three viable receivers.
That’s a pretty good setup for a high-degree player, but we’ve gotten just one QB1 finish this season. Your view of Herbert’s fantasy stock, both this week and for the next few weeks at the very least, is reasonably simple: are you buying more into the volume than you fear the pressure?
Through a month, Herbert ranks second in opportunities at the position (pass-plus-rush attempts). This roster insulates him, and if they continue to put their fate in his hands, it’s not difficult to see him volume his way to top 10 weeks.
On the other hand, Joe Alt is going to miss some time, and over the past three weeks, Herbert is 15-of-42 (35.7%) when pressured, firing one touchdown against two interceptions in the process.
The Commanders create pressure at the ninth-highest rate this season, while Los Angeles’ next two opponents rank in the bottom 10 (Indianapolis and Miami). He’s a fringe QB1 for me, but I want you to know that even if he struggles this week, I encourage you to sit tight and not do anything rash.
Kyler Murray | ARI (vs TEN)
It’s okay to be encouraged.
In the fourth quarter on Thursday night, Marvin Harrison Jr. seemed to have found his confidence, and if Kyler Murray has two pass catchers he can count on, he stands to be a strong Tier 2 signal caller.
That’s not to say he’s perfect. There was an airmailed interception on Arizona’s second drive last week, and his accuracy metrics this year are largely the result of playing the Saints and Panthers to open the season.
Understanding that, he’s cleared 30 rushing yards and has a touchdown pass in all four weeks. That helps create a fantasy floor, as does the skill set of Trey McBride, thus making the Harrison situation something of a linchpin to Murray’s spot in the QB hierarchy.
If the second-year receiver can live up to his pedigree, Murray has top-five potential at the position, and I think that’s in play this week. I understand that he looked iffy at times last week (4.9 yards per pass with two INTs), but that was a short work week against an elite defense.
This week, he gets extra time to prepare for one of the favorites to earn the top overall pick in April. With Allen off the main slate and Jackson (vs. HOU)/Hurts (vs. DEN) in less favorable spots, Murray should very much be on your DFS radar at a relative discount.
Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs HOU)
The Ravens made it clear on Monday afternoon that Jackson’s exiting early from their Week 4 blowout loss to the Chiefs was not the result of the score but a legitimate hamstring injury that has his status for this week in question.
Baltimore might try to rest their former MVP this week, work him up to game speed ahead of Week 6 (vs. Rams) before the Week 7 bye.
This is a situation that certainly requires monitoring, but the fantasy plan is pretty straightforward: mirror what the 1-3 Ravens do (currently sounds like a Week 5 absence at the very least).
The streaming options aren’t great this week with four teams on bye, but Tua Tagovailoa gets the Panthers, and Stroud gets a banged-up Ravens defense.
Mac Jones | SF (at LAR)
Mac Jones will again fill the void left by Purdy (toe), and while we have a proof of fantasy concept from him this season (279 pass yards and three scores against the Saints), over 42% of his targets in that spike performance went to either Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall.
You like to see that sort of concentration, but it’s less effective when those earning the targets in bulk are inactive, and that’s the case this week.
Jones’ Week 5 job description is to find ways to get Christian McCaffrey the ball, not to get you fantasy points. I’m not tempted to go this direction, even if you need a streamer for Jackson.
Marcus Mariota | WAS (at LAC)
Mariota was QB6 in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Raiders, but the backup QB found the sledding a bit tougher in Atlanta over the weekend.
In the 34-27 loss to the Dirty Birds, Mariota was only able to muster two rush attempts and saw only one pass catcher haul in more than two passes. The Commanders were unable to stay on the field (one-of-eight on third downs and under 26 minutes of possession), making life difficult with Terry McLaurin inactive.
All signs point to Daniels returning this weekend. If you roster Daniels, I think you’re wise to keep Mariota rostered until you need to pivot. In a perfect world, the franchise QB is just fine and returns to his Tier 1 ranking (that’s where he sits for me right now), and you don’t have to use Mariota again.
If that’s the case, you simply cut ties with Mariota heading into Week 11. The Commanders go on bye in Week 12, and by getting a week ahead of it, you may be able to add a Michael Penix Jr. (at New Orleans in Week 12) or Darnold (at Tennessee).
Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs SF)
Matthew Stafford piled up the numbers over the weekend against the previously unbeaten Colts (375 pass yards and three touchdowns) on his way to a QB2 finish.
That’s great, but I can’t imagine that you’re overreacting to that performance and considering him in single-QB leagues.
Despite Puka Nacua being on a historic pace and honing in on Davante Adams during red-zone situations, this was Stafford’s first weekly finish inside the top 15 at the position.
He ran hot on Sunday, but in looking at September as a whole, where is Stafford supposed to improve?
The Rams have failed to clear 23 real-life points in five of six games against the 49ers since 2022 (17.7 PPG), and Stafford hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points against San Francisco since joining Los Angeles (12.4 PPG).
Last week was fun, but I’d keep that in the past and not project it to continue.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (at JAX)
OK, so what changed?
What allowed a Hall of Fame-caliber QB to look like a Hall of Fame-caliber QB after three awfully ordinary weeks as a passer?
Against the Ravens on Sunday, Mahomes completed 7-of-8 passes with two scores when throwing outside of the pocket, a drastic improvement from the two games prior (five-of-11 with zero touchdowns).
The gravity of Xavier Worthy was certainly part of that, but so was a banged-up Baltimore defense that failed to make him uncomfortable, even if he was moved off of his spot. Also factoring into this was the willingness of Mahomes to do damage with his legs (45% of his fantasy points in Week 1 came with his legs, and in Week 2, that rate was 57.1%).
It’s possible that we’ve just seen a turning point, and the avalanche of Kansas City production is on the way. The Jaguars have overachieved on the defensive side of the ball, and Mahomes has quietly struggled for our purposes in these primetime spots (under 17.5 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 such contests).
I’m not worried about it.
Mahomes ranks fourth in dropbacks through the first month of the season, and if we are giving the most talented QB in the league elite volume, the fantasy points are going to pile up.
Mahomes is back in my top 8 at the position, both for this week and for the remainder of the season.
Russell Wilson | NYG (at NO)
Wilson had a career day in Week 2 against the Cowboys, but he wasn’t a top-20 QB in either of his other two starts and never really looked comfortable.
The Giants aren’t going anywhere in 2025, no matter what they do under center, and that’s why the decision to hand the keys to Dart shouldn’t come as a surprise.
I’m not sure what type of league would have required you to hold onto Wilson up to this point, but you can move on: this is the Dart show, for better or worse, and that’s not going to change unless there’s an injury.
Sam Darnold | SEA (vs TB)
The Seahawks have won three straight, and Darnold has scored 15.8-16.7 fantasy points in each of them.
He’s actually playing better than I expected during his first month with the team, but this team isn’t going to ask him to put up top 15 fantasy numbers. The rushing upside is minimal at best, and with no more than 26 pass attempts in three of four, the efficiency almost has to be at Hall of Fame levels to make him worthy of our interest.
We saw what he is capable of on the second drive on Thursday night that concluded with consecutive, perfectly placed balls. If you’ve tied your wagon to Caleb Williams this year, Darnold is a viable streaming candidate against a defense that has the potential to eliminate the run game.
That’s what he is in our game: a streamer that you use when needed, but not one that you bank on for anything more.
Spencer Rattler | NO (vs NYG)
Spencer Rattler led a gutsy performance in Buffalo last week, keeping his 15.5-point underdog Saints competitive for the majority of the contest.
He nearly doubled his season total in rushing yards with 49, but he has yet to reach 220 yards through the air and has multiple passing scores in just one of four weeks.
He’s doing everything we could ask for in terms of funneling targets to the teammates we need him to, but there’s no path to even superflex value here, and that’s not going to change in New Orleans this season, no matter who sits atop this depth chart.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs KC)
Is it possible that we were hoodwinked, bamboozled, and led astray?
I’m not sure about you, but coming out of Clemson, I was told that Trevor Lawrence was a gifted downfield passer with plus mobility.
At this point, I’d take either of those things, never mind both.
His deep ball passer rating since the beginning of last season is 61.8, easily the lowest mark in the league among qualifiers (Young is the only QB within 10 points of Lawrence). He’s two-of-10 on those passes over the past two weeks, something that I wouldn’t have believed had you told me a month ago, with both Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter healthy.
As for the rushing numbers? He averaged 18.1 yards per game through his first four seasons, but he hasn’t cleared 12 in a single game this season.
The Chiefs come to town as the sixth-best pressure unit in the league, second-best if you only look at non-blitzed plays. With the Seahawks, Rams, and a bye coming up after this, there’s no excuse for holding onto the false hope that Lawrence’s draft equity comes preloaded with.
We, as an industry, got this one wrong this summer, and I’m just as guilty as anyone.
Brutal.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at CAR)
I want you to name for me the viable fantasy option that doesn’t have strong mobility traits or an alpha WR1.
I’ll wait.
At best, you’re looking at Prescott sans CeeDee Lamb. And then who? Purdy? Smith?
I know, I know, bad week to make that Prescott comparison after he lit up the Packers on Sunday night, but I think we can agree that was an outlier performance. The point is that Tagovailoa was struggling to maintain a reasonable fantasy floor before the Tyreek Hill injury and could well tank after it.
He’s thrown multiple TD passes in three straight games and has looked better after the Week 1 disaster in Indianapolis, but he simply lacks the paths to top 15 production.
My guess is that he will experience a random spike at some point, possibly when De’Von Achane takes a screen pass to the house or Jaylen Waddle finds himself in a mismatch for an extended period, but that won’t be the norm.
Tagovailoa isn’t a player I’m looking to stream this week: give me Jaxson Dart if we are simply targeting poor defenses. Moving forward, I’d rather tie my QB2 wagon to a Darnold-type player who might not have the most fantasy-friendly game, but is playing the position at a reasonably high level and gets a Carolina matchup, on extended rest, during our Super Bowl week (Week 17).
Tyrod Taylor | NYJ (vs DAL)
Tyrod Taylor was QB10 in Week 3 against the Buccaneers, and that was a good reminder that his skill set is impactful for our game if he is pressed into starting duties in a favorable spot.
There’s no need to hold him with Fields healthy, but New York does have some good matchups down the stretch (Dolphins, Jaguars, Saints in Weeks 14-16), so if we ever get word that Fields is dealing with something, Taylor is certainly a quick add that could pay off in a big way when it matters most this winter.
