Every week in fantasy football brings a new layer of chaos, and Week 10 looks no different. A few young quarterbacks are quietly trending up, while some veterans who once felt like automatic plays are showing cracks in reliability.
Matchup context is everything, and several defenses are starting to separate themselves as difference-makers. Let’s break down who’s worth your trust — and who’s better left on the bench — before setting your fantasy football lineups.
Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at LAC)
Sunday was the perfect example of why you can’t trust Aaron Rodgers in fantasy this year.
He played well. He didn’t turn the ball over, managed the clock, and led his team to an upset win over the Colts.
He threw for 203 yards and one score, averaging just 8.1 yards per completion.
The Steelers have been far more competitive than anyone thought, and without the benefit of a crazy game script, this offense isn’t designed for Rodgers to provide us with gaudy stat lines.
It’s designed for him to do exactly what he did against Indianapolis. The future Hall of Famer threw 35 passes, and not one of them resulted in a 20-yard gain. With little splash play potential and even less rushing upside, everything needs to be perfect for Rodgers to be on the fringe of QB1 production.
That’s not a range of outcomes that interests me in any matchup, let alone against a defense that has allowed under 4.5 yards per play over its past two games.
Baker Mayfield | TB (vs NE)
Baker Mayfield’s stock has dipped after opening the season with six straight games scoring north of 17 fantasy points, as he has totaled just 15.2 total points over the past two (road games against the Lions and Saints).
I’m not overly worried about it, but it is a reminder that, outside of a select few, the range of outcomes is wide at the highest scoring position in the game.
Mayfield doesn’t have a single rushing yard in either one of those tough games and has been held to 15 or fewer in five straight after clearing 30 in each of his first three. He was the fifth-best QB in Weeks 1-5 and has been QB24. It goes without saying that he slots in between those two extremes moving forward and could trend closer to the hot streak by season’s end, should the roster around him get healthy.
For now, this is a shaky profile in a tough matchup. You’re not going to find a better option on the waiver wire, so you’re rolling with Mayfield this week, but you’ll need your skill position players to do the heavy lifting.
Mayfield is hovering around QB10 for me this week.
Bo Nix | DEN (vs LV)
Bo Nix has now thrown for multiple scores in three straight games and run for over 20 yards in four of his past five games, trending closer to what we saw during his rookie season at the perfect time.
He struggled with efficiency in Houston last week (48.7% complete). Still, with the longest rush of his season (25 yards) and 40+ opportunities in four of his past six games, Nix can safely be started in all formats this weekend against a Raiders defense that has allowed 20+ fantasy points to similar QBs that offer some versatility to combat passing inconsistencies (Marcus Mariota and Trevor Lawrence).
We are still a ways away from Nix taking that next step. He was baited into an interception last week and ranks 26th of 33 qualified QBs in YPA against pressure. The tools are in place in terms of his skill set, surrounding upside, and creative coaching for Nix to be locked into lineups, even if there are holes in the profile of the Year 2 signal caller.
After a Week 12 bye, Denver gets the Commanders and Raiders, matchups that should allow Nix to elevate your team as the regular season comes to a close.
Brock Purdy | SF (vs LAR)
Brock Purdy (toe) continues to rehab an injury that has limited him to two games so far, both of which saw plenty of good (293 passing yards and two pass TDs per game) and plenty of bad (multiple INTs in both with just a 57.9% completion rate in his last start).
This is a talented roster, but health has been hard to come by for all involved, and until all boats are pushing in the same direction, I can’t justify going this direction until we know that he is fully healthy.
During the fantasy postseason, the 49ers get the Titans and Bears at home in addition to a road game against the high-flying Colts. Purdy is rosterable right now in all formats, but I won’t be playing him this week should he make his much-awaited return.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs NO)
The Panthers don’t want Bryce Young to carry the fate of their week in his hands, and that should be all you need to know.
This is a team that prefers to shorten every game and run the ball to set up the run.
Young has reached 200 passing yards just once this season, and yet, they’ve won each of their past four starts.
I don’t think the team’s success is sticky, but I’m also not sold that the flipping of game scripts puts Young anywhere near the QB1 radar. The rushing numbers have evaporated after an encouraging Week 1, and the decision-making is still below average (one end zone interception last week, and he wasn’t far from a second).
This should be a close game, and those are the spots where Young projects poorly, even by his already low standards.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs JAX)
C.J. Stroud took a big shot in the second quarter as he was sliding to a stop, and it resulted in his head bouncing violently off the ground.
He didn’t return to the game after that second-quarter play and is to be considered questionable for this week.
Even if healthy, I think you can do better. His increased willingness to move within the pocket and pick up yards with his legs has helped his value, something that could be at risk if this injury results in increased levels of caution (they were looking for a “push” score early in the game before a penalty backed them up).
All things considered, Stroud hasn’t offered the type of ceiling we were hoping for (one top-10 finish this season). The bye week is behind them, and that means their QB1 is going to have to get healthy on the fly.
If you want to cut ties with him, I wouldn’t blame you. After this week, he gets a plus spot against the Titans, but then come games against the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. That said, don’t erase him from your memory: home games against the Cardinals and Raiders loom in Weeks 15-16.
Caleb Williams | CHI (vs NYG)
In what could be the game of the year, Caleb Williams threw for three scores, ran for 53 yards, and stayed composed in a day full of chaos.
It was a great fantasy day and a strong signal in terms of his development, but not every game will see 89 total points scored. The second-year QB had a total of two touchdown passes in his four games before the win in Cincinnati: what we can expect moving forward is somewhere in the middle of those disastrous games and what we saw on Sunday.
On the plus side, it would appear that Ben Johnson is comfortable enough with his new team to introduce his mad scientist schemes. The touchdown catch helped boost his value, and while that’s obviously not something we’re banking on, creativity is the primary path for Williams to hit our lineups weekly.
I like this matchup (Mac Jones was perfect, 14-of-14, against the Giants in the first half last week), and I like the script that is always possible for Williams to find himself in while playing next to a bad defense.
Not every opponent has Joe Flacco, but most will be able to force this offense to be aggressive, and that’s all I need from a player who has some Brett Favre in him.
Daniel Jones | IND (vs ATL)
We saw everything go right for Rodgers, and he was still unable to return much in the way of fantasy production.
The inverse of that was Daniel Jones, who turned the ball over five times, yet still managed some reasonable counting numbers (340 passing yards, TD, rush TD). The Falcons have dropped three straight games and profile as a decent get-right spot in Germany for the Colts.
We saw some spike games from Jones early in the season, and while I don’t think we get back to that level of production, we’ve seen Jones routinely finish in the QB8-12 range, and that’s sustainable.
Indianapolis wants to run things through Jonathan Taylor, and while that limits the upside of their QB, I think it also has a sneaky way of keeping his floor high.
Either the defense has to sell out to stop JT and is left vulnerable in the secondary, or Taylor is gashing them and putting this offense in a position to score with regularity.
Neither of those is a poor outcome, and that means I think you can get away with playing him weekly.
Dillon Gabriel | CLE (at NYJ)
There have been some whispers about the QB position in Cleveland, and that’s good for talk shows, but I’m not sure we care at all.
Dillon Gabriel’s best finish this season is QB18, and while he has a pair of multi-TD games, he has been unable to string four solid quarters together, something that I believe has as much to do with his situation as it does with his raw skill set.
Shedeur Sanders would encounter the same problems. At best, there are two viable options on this offense: Quinshon Judkins and whoever ends up being the featured tight end. Jerry Jeudy is the true loser in this situation, as he’s the asset for whom we had high hopes, but has been unable to do much of anything.
Drake Maye | NE (at TB)
That’s now four straight games with a 35+ yard completion and 7+ rush attempts for Drake Maye as he has established himself as a lineup lock that can produce against any type of defense.
We saw some of his youth on display last week, as evidenced by a bad fumble that resulted in a tight game with the Falcons at halftime, as opposed to the Patriots laying down the hammer.
Those moments are going to happen, but the good (great) moments have far outweighed those learning moments, and that is why New England’s franchise QB is a fantasy asset that you can get your season on.
Some of Maye’s football maturity was on display last week as he diagnosed a red zone third-down situation where he could have forced the ball into a tight window, but instead opted to move the chains with his legs.
Little moments like that are taking place every week in addition to the splash moments that make the highlight shows.
I still think he’s a WR1 away from flirting with the top tier at the position, but he’s the next best thing, and given the price you paid this summer, that puts you in a position to compete at the highest level.
Can you capitalize on the value you already have and build around it?
Geno Smith | LV (at DEN)
After back-to-back-to-back-to-back single-digit performances, Geno Smith hung 26.3 fantasy points on the Jaguars in one of the more entertaining games of Week 9.
Don’t care.
He’s followed the Justin Fields plan of sporadic production this season (this is his third game clearing 17 points), but doesn’t have access to the cheat code that is athleticism, and that has me assuming dud performances in neutral spots until I see something sustainable pointing in the opposite direction.
I’ve yet to see that, and I don’t expect to against one of the best defenses in the league, even with Patrick Surtain shelved. A player like this needs quick-hit ability through the air, and given that Smith has four deep completions over his past five contests, we are doubtful to get there.
J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs BAL)
This is the definition of a prospect that is being thrown to the wolves and learning on the fly.
J.J. McCarthy returned from the ankle injury that had kept him sidelined since suffering the injury in Week 2 and looked great in executing the predetermined script before struggling on the way in.
It was the inverse of what we saw in his NFL debut, and these crazy swings are a part of the growth process for many QBs. In his two quarters of looking like a world beater, McCarthy has completed 11-of-15 passes for 155 yards and four touchdowns.
The ability to have spikes like that is encouraging. There are a half-dozen QBs on the streaming consciousness that haven’t flashed potential like that.
Having said that, he’s 27-of-51 for 289 yards and four interceptions in the other 10 quarters of his season.
In a perfect world, we would see the range of quarterly outcomes narrow over time this year, and McCarthy can execute the Kevin O’Connell system in 2023 the way Sam Darnold did last season.
He’s sitting atop my list of “evaluate and be patient” options. It’s not impossible for him to be used as a one-off option in a month or so (matchups with the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants await), but I’d be surprised if that’s the case.
I think you can do better this week if you’re looking to replace Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, or the ever-valuable Joe Flacco this weekend.
Jacoby Brissett | ARI (at SEA)
Isn’t it amazing how simple yet complicated this game can be at times?
The Cardinals haven’t asked for Jacoby Brissett to reinvent the wheel, and he’s executed at a reasonably high level. Last week, he became the first QB to throw for 260 yards and multiple TDs in three straight appearances (all of which resulted in top 12 weeks) this season, and he seemed to unlock something in Marvin Harrison Jr. in the first half last week.
I like what he’s brought to the table, but I hate this spot. During that four-week (three-game) stretch, Brissett ranks 20th in pressured passer rating and fifth when not pressured. Those struggles figure to be amplified against a defense that ranks third in pressure rate when not blitzing over the past month.
Brissett ranks outside of my top 15, and Kyler Murray wouldn’t rank much more favorably.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (at GB)
After consecutive losses, the Eagles leaned into their pass game and were rewarded in a major way.
- Record: 2-0
- Points: 66
- CMP%: 79.1%
Jalen Hurts was as efficient as anyone in the NFL in the two weeks prior to the Week 9 bye (34-of-43 for 505 yards and seven touchdowns), reminding us of why he’s an elite fantasy option.
The Tush Push is a cheat code, we know that, but this isn’t a one-dimensional player. This is going to be a fun Monday nighter, and I believe the Packers can defend this offense in a unique way, but that doesn’t shift Hurts out of the top tier.
He can be a difference-maker in a variety of ways, and that’s exactly why you paid a premium in August for his services.
Jared Goff | DET (at WAS)
Jared Goff has completed over 67% of his passes in four straight games and has multiple TD tosses in four of his past five. These numbers put him on the QB1 radar against a Washington defense that has struggled for the majority of the season and was diced up by Sam Darnold on Sunday night.
The upside is naturally limited from this skill set (he has one 20-point game since Week 2), but he’s as good as it gets on those timing routes (82.5% completion rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards down field, pacing to easily best his career high 78% from last year) and that makes him among the safest bets for 20+ completions in any given week.
There’s always risk in playing him in a spot like this, where Detroit could probably win this game with 40 rush attempts. But for a team that has lost two of three and is in an all-out brawl for NFC North supremacy, I expect an aggressive plan that should enable Goff to post a top-15 floor with a chance to mirror the success of Darnold.
Jaxson Dart | NYG (at CHI)
Since 2015, three first-round rookies have rattled off a streak of four straight games with a rushing TD: Todd Gurley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and, after last week, Jaxson Dart.
His final stat line was helped some in garbage time, but a career-high in completion percentage (72.7%) and multiple TD passes for the third time in five games is impressive nonetheless.
On the first drive, he moved the chains with a third-down scramble and put a bow on the possession with a 15-yard TD pass to Theo Johnson. He’s executing the game script, and while some of the production can be spotty as things progress, there is no denying that his skill set is built for our game.
The top three scoring QBs against the Bears this season have all been more pocket-focused than Dart (Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, and J.J. McCarthy), so it’ll be interesting to see how the rookie is defended, but I expect him to continue to put this offense on his back.
The total for this game could push 50 by kickoff, and while I don’t expect this to look like the Bears/Bengals chaos from last week, I do expect the game environment to be favorable enough for Dart to post a top-10 week.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs DET)
I thought Jayden Daniels looked recovered from the hamstring injury last week.
It wasn’t a work of art, but to my eye, that was more of a Seattle defense thing than anything to truly worry about when it comes to Daniels.
And then it happened.
Down 31 with under eight minutes left, Daniels was sacked while trying to make a play on the doorstep, falling to the ground with his arm caught in about as awkward a spot as possible, dislocating his elbow in the process.
Marcus Mariota is going to get the nod as this team tries to pull this season out of the fire, but this is a brutal spot, and I fear that there will be no reason to rush the Daniels’ recovery process.
Jordan Love | GB (vs PHI)
The Eagles’ defense is solid, but quarterbacks have had some success in terms of fantasy production against them this season in terms of a production floor (17.9+ points scored in four of their past five games).
If Jordan Love were in strong fantasy form, I’d be promoting him as a fringe top 10 QB in this spot, but that’s not the case, and he’s now without his most consistent pass catcher in Tucker Kraft.
Love has failed to throw multiple TD passes in three of his past four games, and the rushing production is sporadic at best. I’ve been impressed with the accuracy (70.8% completion this season), and that elevates the floor for Green Bay’s signal-caller, but I don’t see much of a ceiling here, and that’s why I have him ranked behind Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold this week.
Josh Allen | BUF (at MIA)
Josh Allen has one (1) game this season in which he didn’t have multiple touchdown passes or multiple touchdown runs, and the Dolphins don’t exactly project as the type of defense to slow down the reigning MVP.
Allen has scored over 22 fantasy points in seven of his past eight games against Miami (78.6% completion rate with three TDs in Week 3 in this matchup) and tops my rankings at the position this week.
For DFS purposes, the QB slot could differentiate you from the field.
Justin Fields | NYJ (vs CLE)
I don’t have kids.
I’m not sure I have the patience for it. Never have been. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve avoided finding out by opting to not go that route.
My guess is that there is a direct correlation between willingness to develop children and willingness to roster Fields.
If you have that level of patience and understanding, I’m happy for you. I can’t do it.
- Week 1: 29.5 fantasy points
- Week 2: 4.0
- Week 3: DNP
- Week 4: 27.1
- Week 5: 25.9
- Week 6: 4.9
- Week 7: 4.0
- Week 8: 20.9
Matchups have driven the spikes (the most recent good games came against the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Bengals), and this doesn’t profile as one of those spots.
That said, I don’t have kids.
My siblings do, and their sporadic kids surprise them all the time. The range of outcomes for Fields is too broad for me to provide advice with a high level of confidence. I wouldn’t be playing him, even with two weeks to prepare.
But I would have missed out on the big performances.
If you roster Fields, I guess that your team is a very stressful 5-4 or 4-5. Are you comfortable starting him, potentially with your playoff seed on the line?
Dart (at CHI) is an easy play over him for me, and I’d rather spend my weekend with Sam Darnold (vs. ARI) or Stroud (vs. JAX) if given the choice.
Justin Herbert | LAC (vs PIT)
Justin Herbert is pacing for over 4,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards this season.
No big deal, that’s just never been done in the long history of this wonderful game.
He threw a pick-6 on his third pass of Week 9, but rebounded quickly and put on another strong showing for his fantasy managers.
Things like a career-high completion percentage when throwing past the sticks or his greatest TD% when passing inside the red zone are encouraging, but not really surprising; it’s part of the development of a high-pedigree prospect.
The athleticism is what jumps off the screen at me. He’s already two yards away from a career high in rushing yards, and the manner in which he is doing it is beyond impressive.
Last week alone, he had a pump fake, scramble, and continue to threaten the defense downfield with his eyes play that ended with a 29-yard gain on the ground (his third 20+ yard effort of the season).
His first rushing TD came on a scramble, and with each passing week, he looks a little bit more like Patrick Mahomes.
That’s obviously not a name I mention lightly. Herbert is my QB4 and is vying for Tier 1 status. He’s got some tough matchups coming home, but a date with Dallas in Week 16 should help advance you to the finals of your league, should you get there, and while the Texans will be waiting for him, he’s pretty clearly entered the matchup-proof zone at the position.
Enjoy the price you paid this summer for his services; it’s going to be drastically different this upcoming August.
Kirk Cousins | ATL (at IND)
Kirk Cousins wasn’t exactly dealt a full hand in his spot start against the Dolphins in the Week 8 loss, but 21 completions for 173 yards and zero touchdowns against one of the worst defenses in the sport is unacceptable.
It shouldn’t have mattered to you, but given that we have seen some backup QBs provide decent numbers when pressed into duty, it needs to be said.
Cousins isn’t that.
Michael Penix (knee) is the better player at this point, and he is having his own issues that warrant our attention. You can start a trio of Falcons weekly, but you’re not touching the QB position.
Kyler Murray | ARI (at SEA)
The fact that we needed reports last week to tell us that the Cardinals’ starting Brissett was “not some kind of benching” of Kyler Murray is a concern.
The foot injury is a worry for a player who, at the peak of his powers, threatens defenses in a multitude of ways, but even pre-injury, we are talking about a QB who has yet to post a top-12 finish at the position this season.
Murray is pacing for a career low in both fantasy points per pass and per rush, making him a tough sell until we have a clean bill of health, and even then, I think I’d need to see it on the field before trusting him in lineups.
With the IR tag slapped on him Wednesday, Murray will miss the remainder of the month with a Week 14 return his next possible spot to impact our world.
The Cards play the Rams, and Texans in Weeks 14-15, two matchups that I’d rather not touch and that means, at best, a Week 16 home game against the Falcons is the next time you’d feel even remotely confident in considering Murray.
It’s tough, but if you don’t have an IR slot to use, I think you can move on without much concern in standard-sized leagues.
Lamar Jackson | BAL (at MIN)
I thought Lamar Jackson looked rusty for about six plays on Thursday night in Miami.
Yes, it was the ideal matchup, but after missing a month, we can’t be anything but impressed with his return to action (18-of-23 for 204 yards and four scores).
Critics will highlight the 14 rushing yards (13 of which came on one carry), but I think he’s built up enough equity on that front for us to trust that those numbers bounce back with time and confidence in his body.
With the Vikings and Browns over the next two weeks, Jackson faces much tougher competition, and we should get a better feel for whether he is close to his prior MVP form.
If he is, look out. Bengals-Steelers-Bengals is the schedule for the Ravens in Weeks 13-15, a run that could have your fantasy team absolutely soaring come playoff time. Matchups with the Patriots and Packers (at Lambeau) during the final two weeks of our season are obviously less than ideal, but at the peak of his powers, Jackson is a matchup-proof ace.
I’m not here to pour water on the strong game, but it does need to be said.
Volume.
We routinely see the Josh Allens and Patrick Mahomes of the world clear 40 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts): Jackson has hit 35 just once over the past 11 months.
Part of that is due to his brilliance and putting points on the board quickly, but if there is one thing that will prevent him from carrying you over these next two months, that’s it.
Mac Jones | SF (vs LAR)
Jones was perfect in the first half.
Not a matter of opinion, fact.
In his fifth start of the season, he completed all 14 of his passes in the first 30 minutes for 143 yards and a pair of scores. He’s completed over 65% of his passes in six of his seven outings this season and now has more games with multiple passing touchdowns than not.
That said, the rushing upside isn’t there, and we haven’t seen much yardage potential through the air of late (last three games: 193.3 per game). Brock Purdy is nearing his return, and once that happens, you can cut ties.
I understand the desire to hold Jones and ask Purdy to prove that he can stay on the field, but is he worth it?
How much better is Jones than the names on your wire?
My guess is, not much. Marcus Mariota owns a more favorable profile, while you can always find Aaron Rodgers-type players that can expose a favorable matchup (Weeks 11-15: Bengals, Bears, Bills, Ravens, and Dolphins).
Marcus Mariota | WAS (vs DET)
Marcus Mariota has run for 20+ yards in all three of his starts this season (and once in relief duty) and averaged 7.3 yards per pass, an interesting profile that will likely continue as he moves forward in the job.
Personally, I view him as a low-end streamer that has more DFS appeal in a contrarian build than I do a redraft asset, but there’s at least some proof of concept there with him in this system as Washington fights to keep its season alive in a tough spot.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (at SF)
It’s difficult to survive in this fantasy world of ours with next to zero rushing equity, but Matthew Stafford’s current form is about what it takes.
He’s thrown nine touchdown passes over his past two games and has at least two through the air in six of his past seven games. The highlight from last week was an absolute dime to Puka Nacua to beat nearly perfect coverage as part of a 15-for-18 start (164 yards and three scores).
Stafford is pacing toward his best YPA season since 2021 and wasn’t shy about featuring his favorites in the Week 5 meeting against these Niners (71.7% of his targets went to Nacua, Davante Adams, or Kyren Williams).
Due to some of the dual-threat QBs having favorable matchups, I can’t get Stafford inside of my top 10 this week, but he’s not far from it and is trending as strong as any pocket passer in the sport.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at IND)
The knee didn’t look to hamper Michael Penix in a major way last week, and now he’s gone three straight without an interception.
If you want to say that he’s slowly developing at the NFL level, I’ll listen. But he’s been held under 6.5 yards per attempt in four of his past six games and has just three finishes this season better than QB17.
On the bright side, we saw him be rewarded for funneling all of the valuable looks in the direction of Drake London, and that’s Penix’s impact on our game.
Sam Darnold | SEA (vs ARI)
This game is being played on Sunday, and that means you can pencil in Sam Darnold for multiple touchdown passes (he’s done it in five straight Sundays).
The first game against the Cardinals didn’t qualify as such (Thursday Night Football in Week 4), and he finished with an underwhelming stat line (242 pass yards and one touchdown). These pocket-locked QBs seem to have gotten better recently at weighing down their top teammates with targets (i.e., Joe Flacco, Michael Penix, and Matthew Stafford), and as long as Darnold is doing that, he’s on the QB1 radar.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 10 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
He’s accounted for two of the three perfect passer ratings for a first half this season, a stat that speaks to his ability to carry out the pregame script.
The 300-yard bonus is on the radar for DFS players, and with the greatness of Jaxon Smith-Njigba on display weekly, Darnold slides into the back-end of the QB1 tier for me in Week 10.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at HOU)
Jacksonville’s addition of Jakobi Meyers on Tuesday speaks to its willingness to build around Trevor Lawrence, which is good for his dynasty value.
As for his redraft value, he’s a matchup play at best when you’re desperate.
This isn’t the type of matchup you target.
The Texans rank fourth in pressure rate, have more INTs than pass TDs allowed, and allow the second-fewest yards per pass. Lawrence has just two games with multiple passing scores this season, so unless you think he goes over the top for a short rush TD, there really isn’t a clear path for him to post top 15 numbers in this brutal matchup.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs BUF)
This can be tough to watch.
Tua Tagovailoa threw 40 passes against the Ravens on Thursday night and finished with 8.5 fantasy points, the third time in four games in which he’s been held to that number or worse.
The problem, pretty clearly, is the ceiling/floor analysis. Even with five multi-TD pass games on his ledger this season, Tagovailoa has reached 16 fantasy points just three times. What you get when he plays well doesn’t come close to offsetting the duds like this, and that makes him unrosterable in any one-QB league.
Fantasy Points Per Pass Attempt
- 2022: 0.56
- 2023: 0.49
- 2024: 0.44
- 2025: 0.40
The four-TD game of Week 8 was always going to be a mirage, and I need you to remember the feeling you have around Tagovailoa right now. The disappointment. The despair. The lack of statistical upside.
Why?
This team has home games against the Saints (Week 13) and Bengals (Week 16) remaining on its schedule, spots that will make it easy to fall into the trap of considering him worth a look in desperate situations.
Remember how bad the bad is and how so-so the great is. Tagovailoa isn’t a player you want your fantasy fate in the hands of, even in those seemingly strong spots.
Tyler Shough | NO (at CAR)
In his first career start, Tyler Shough did about what we expected against a Rams defense that was able to pin their ears back due to the game script.
All things considered, I didn’t think it was that bad. He averaged 7.3 yards per pass and saw his two primary receivers account for the majority of his completions, yards, and targets.
There’s a massive gap between “I didn’t think it was that bad” and “worthy of consideration on our end”.
Shough is 1-of-13 this season with an interception when pressured, something that he will work to improve over the final two months of this season. The idea of starting him now is not to win games or put up numbers; it’s to accelerate the development curve so that if this team can build a competitive roster, their QB has a chance to prove additive.
I’m not sold that Shough is the man long-term in New Orleans, but at least the team will gather data points to consider during his rookie season.
