Week 1 fantasy football is here, and quarterback matchups could make or break your lineup. Baker Mayfield and C.J. Stroud look poised for big performances, while caution is advised for Justin Fields and Justin Herbert. Strategic starts and sits this week set the tone for early-season success.
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 1
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL)
Baker Mayfield steps into Week 1 with the perfect storm of opportunity and matchup. Veteran pass catcher Chris Godwin may be out, but the wide receiver room is plenty strong with Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka.
Atlanta’s defense remains what it was in 2024: porous. Last season, they allowed quarterbacks 19.6 fantasy points per game and finished in the bottom five in both sacks and pressure rate. Their secondary couldn’t contain average NFL arms, let alone a healthy Mayfield operating indoors at peak level.
Game flow favors volume. The Falcons have offensive talent that will keep this competitive, meaning Mayfield won’t be able to coast in the fourth quarter. Evans should dominate air yards, while Egbuka handles underneath work and TE Cade Otton provides safety-valve targets when pressure arrives.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Mayfield averaged 22.5 PPR points per game in 2024. In his two games against the Falcons, he posted 23.4 and 24.3 points. Yes, Mayfield’s touchdown rate will come down this season, but that doesn’t mean he won’t still be an every-week QB1 with immense upside in favorable matchups. This is one of those weeks.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at LAR)
The Houston Texans enter 2025 with a reconstructed but dangerous receiving corps. Behind standout Nico Collins, 2024’s Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are replaced by 2025’s Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins.
Los Angeles presents the ideal opponent for Stroud’s ceiling game. The Rams surrendered 18-plus fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2024, showing vulnerability to efficient and accurate passers throughout the season.
Every CJ Stroud TD from ‘24. It’s easy to forget how gifted he is as a passer, but the anticipation he throws with, the tight window throws, and his ability to maneuver in the pocket are special. Can’t wait to see what he does in ‘25 with more weapons +hopefully better protection pic.twitter.com/Xd2p9CDgCb
— Daniel Salib (@salibdaniel1) August 20, 2025
Stroud finished 2024 averaging a very dismal 13.7 fantasy points per game. However, there’s reason to expect improvement this season. With RB Joe Mixon out and the offensive line one of the worst in the league, the Texans will want to establish their aerial attack early.
Expect aggressive play calls and Stroud pushing the ball downfield. We should see a Stroud who performs closer to the guy we saw as a rookie, who averaged 18.7 PPG. That gets started in Week 1.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 1
Justin Fields, New York Jets (vs. PIT)
It’s a Week 1 revenge game for new Jets QB Justin Fields. Unfortunately, even if he is able to serve up a nice, cold dish, the fantasy upside may not follow. He faces a nightmare scenario in Week 1 — Pittsburgh’s defense features the menace that is EDGE T.J. Watt, and held quarterbacks to just 15.5 fantasy points per game in 2024, the sixth-fewest in the league.
The Jets’ offensive line changed, but hasn’t yet proven the cohesion needed to protect against Pittsburgh’s aggressive schemes. Fields’ tendency to hold the ball too long and his inconsistency reading complex coverages make this matchup particularly concerning for fantasy purposes.
While Fields offers rushing upside that can salvage poor passing performances, Pittsburgh’s linebackers are disciplined enough to limit big gains on the ground. The Steelers’ game plan will focus on forcing Fields into difficult throws under pressure, which is exactly where his accuracy breaks down.
This is a clear fade spot for fantasy managers. The matchup caps Fields’ ceiling, and his floor is dangerously low against a defense designed to create turnovers and negative plays. Stream a safer option with a more favorable defensive opponent and save Fields for better matchups down the road.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. KC)
Justin Herbert’s talent isn’t in question, but this matchup presents too many red flags to ignore. Kansas City’s defense allowed just 17.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2024, finishing as one of the better units in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers’ receiving corps lacks a true playmaker beyond WR Ladd McConkey. Veteran receiver Keenan Allen may be back, but at 33 years old, he is nothing more than a checkdown option at this point.
Justin Herbert has unlimited potential 📈 pic.twitter.com/dED7ik9Nyh
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 22, 2025
Kansas City’s defensive scheme focuses on eliminating big plays and forcing quarterbacks into underneath throws and short completions. Herbert’s fantasy value comes from explosive plays and red zone efficiency, both of which will be severely limited by the Chiefs’ coverage concepts and pass-rush.
Herbert posted games of 11.2 and 13.7 fantasy points in his two games against the Chiefs last season. There will be weeks where Herbert has elite upside, but this is not one of them.
