The fantasy semi-finals are here, and picking the right quarterback could determine whether your season continues. We have analyzed the matchups to uncover which passers offer the best upside and which ones are too risky to start. This breakdown will help you navigate the toughest decisions in fantasy football this week. You might be surprised by who makes the cut and who belongs on the bench.
Start ‘Em: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (at NYG)
Can you imagine actually trusting “Nine” in the fantasy semi-finals? I can … because I am. Such is my plight after losing Patrick Mahomes last week (not that Mahomes was anything to write home about anyway).
Ever since head coach Kevin O’Connell told J.J. McCarthy just to go out there and play, he’s been a changed man. McCarthy has now posted back-to-back games of 20+ fantasy points since missing one game with a concussion. The volume hasn’t quite been there, but as long as McCarthy is finding the end zone, it doesn’t matter.
This week’s game features two teams playing out a lost season. There’s really no reason for either team to play conservatively, which could lead to some fun, fast-paced offense.
The Giants allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. McCarthy has accounted for six touchdowns over his last two games. The odds that the Vikings continue scoring all their touchdowns through the air are low, but if McCarthy can get two, he would be worth putting in lineups.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (at DAL)
It takes a lot of stones to put Justin Herbert in your Week 16 lineup. He hasn’t even come close to posting a usable fantasy week since Week 9. Herbert’s best performance over that span was 14.7 fantasy points.
Fortunately, the Dallas Cowboys are the gift that keeps on giving. The gap between them and the team, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, continues to grow.
Herbert hasn’t had a soft matchup in over a month. Granted, he’s flopped in favorable spots before, but it quite literally does not get better than this. And for all his struggles, Herbert does have at least one touchdown pass in all but one game this season. My guess is he throws at least two against Dallas.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Optimizer
Sit ‘Em: Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at CAR)
Somehow, Baker Mayfield reached 20 fantasy points last Thursday night. It certainly didn’t feel that way watching in real time.
Something is wrong with Mayfield. Perhaps there is an undisclosed injury affecting his play that we will find out about in the offseason. But he does not look right.
Nevertheless, Mayfield ham and egged his way to 20 fantasy points against the Falcons. It was just the fourth time he’s hit that marker all season. His 277 passing yards were his highest total since Week 5.
This is a huge matchup that may very well decide the NFC South, which has become a battle of who wants it less. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are coming off terrible losses. Someone is going to rebound. Unfortunately, for the Bucs, they’re the road team here.
The Panthers have not been the same pushover on defense as they were in previous years. They’re allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This has all the makings of an ugly, frustrating field goal fest.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (vs. GB)
Caleb Williams being so heavily rostered is quite curious. How many usable weeks has he given fantasy managers this season? If you’re extra generous, you can get to eight, maybe nine. Generally, Williams is worth starting about half the time.
That’s because he’s the most predictable quarterback in fantasy. Give him a good matchup, and he will excel. Give him a bad matchup, and he will disappoint.
We already saw Williams against the Green Bay Packers a mere two weeks ago. He posted just under 16 fantasy points. Williams failed to reach 200 yards through the air and provided just 15 yards on the ground.
If around 15 fantasy points is good enough for you, then by all means, fire up Williams. But if you’re looking for QB1 upside, Williams is best left on the bench.
