Fantasy football — and football in general — is a goofy game that surprises us on a weekly basis. I’m in the spreadsheets as much as anyone to try to forecast how the coming weeks and months are going to go, but when it comes down to it, it’s such a thin line between success and failure.
So why not put some thoughts out there? These predictions may not be likely to come true, but I think there’s a reasonable path in which they do, and I want to walk you through the bold ones that I’m putting my name on for the 2025 NFL season.
Nico Collins Wins the Receiving Triple Crown
If you’ve been following along with our content this preseason, this call can’t surprise you in the slightest. If not, I encourage you to check it out. Fantasy football, at the end of the day, is a data game. We provide you, and it’s on you to be the judge of what you’re buying and what you’re not.
I dive into why I think he can be the WR1 this season in multiple spots. Instead of hitting you over the head with more propaganda geared in that direction, I’m simply going to lay out the case for how Collins finishes 2025 with Ja’Marr Chase’s 2024 stat line.
2024 Ja’Marr Chase
- 127 catches
- 1,708 yards
- 17 touchdowns
For his career, Houston’s star is averaging 102.2 receiving yards per game when seeing at least eight targets. That number may sound like a lofty projection in terms of volume, but considering that 14 receivers reached that number a season ago and that rookies are the primary “threats” to Collins’ volume, I’m not so sure that is the case.
With a triple crown prediction, we are naturally assuming full health, and if Collins plays to that average over the course of 17 games, we are looking at 1,737 yards. Check.
Building on that volume profile, Collins averaged 7.5 catches per game through September last season before first getting hurt, a run of involvement that is even more impressive when you consider that both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were in the mix.
If we copy/paste that average to 2025, understanding that the decrease in projectable target competition makes that small sample a little more predictive, Collins will finish with 127 receptions. Check.
Over the course of 51 games as a pro, Collins averages 1.1 end zone targets per game in which he ran at least 35 routes.
C.J. Stroud was 13/16 for 223 yards and a touchdown when throwing in-breaking routes vs. LAC
104 out of Nico Collins’ 122 receiving yards came on in-breaking routes, per NFL Pro pic.twitter.com/P5pZ8uasHq
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) January 12, 2025
Chase averaged 1.2 in his run to a triple crown, putting Collins very much in a spot to challenge his touchdown total, especially when you consider the upside of this offense and the potential help (or lack of hurt) from Mother Nature (only two real weather concerns during the regular season). Check.
Only 13 players have won the receiving triple crown in the NFL’s history since 1932, making any bold call like this a long shot.
That said, Collins is approaching a rare spot in his career that features his physical prime with a quarterback yet to play his best ball, a lack of proven threats around him, and optimistic playing conditions in terms of both weather and game script.
Caleb Williams Finishes The Season As QB6
Jayden Daniels, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, and Robert Griffin III all, at one time or another, impressed us with their fantasy potential. Their dynamic abilities allowed them both access to a rare ceiling in addition to an elevated floor.
Those are facts. Although their names may appear random, they are the only four players who, during the 2000s, joined Williams on the list of QBs who had at least five games with 25-plus rushing yards and 225 through the air during their rookie seasons.
Since making Williams the top overall selection in 2024, the Bears have invested top-60 pick draft capital in four players:
- 2024: WR Rome Odunze (9th overall)
- 2025: TE Colston Loveland (10th overall)
- 2025: WR Luther Burden III (39th overall)
- 2025: OL Ozzy Trapilo (56th overall)
I don’t know about you, but I’m a fan when my priorities as a fantasy manager align with what the organization wants to do, and that’s pretty clearly the case in Chicago.
They are interested in giving Williams’ high pedigree every chance to shine through. In a high-scoring division like the NFC North with this sort of supporting cast, why can’t he finish this season atop the second tier at the position?
Williams ranked 13th in short ball passer rating (under 10 air yards) and 33rd otherwise, a flaw that isn’t rare during an introductory season. The aforementioned Newton saw his passer rating on balls thrown 10+ yards jump by 23.7 points from Year 1 to Year 2.
Look at the extremes of raw talent, and you’ll see some similar data points: Daniel Jones saw his passer rating on such passes jump by 26.3 points in Year 2, and Joe Burrow, after adding a receiver with a top-10 pick, by 48 points.
Last season, despite some bumps in the road, Williams was less than 3.0 PPG shy of this QB6 honor that I’m forecasting for him during a large window of his rookie campaign (Weeks 5-16). It’s not that much of a stretch to think that he can elevate into that range for an entire season in which the Bears will likely be playing in game scripts that favor his fantasy stock.
Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland Combine for Fewer Receptions Than Rookie-Year Brock Bowers
Given the success of Sam LaPorta as a rookie in 2023 (86-889-10) and Brock Bowers last season (112-1,194-5), combined with the draft capital spent on Colston Loveland (Bears’ No. 10 overall pick) and Tyler Warren (Colts’ No. 14 overall pick), the natural reflex is to get excited about their outlooks.
Every Brock Bowers rookie season target + rush attempt pic.twitter.com/GT3Oq6KahY
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 4, 2025
I’m not suggesting it is wrong, but we don’t know it to be right. Remember all of those “rookie tight ends struggle to acclimate” talks that we’ve had in the past? Yes, it’s possible that a trend like that is a thing of the past, but I feel as if we are undershooting the special nature of Bowers’ 2024 season if we blindly expect this tandem to do anything similar.
Consider this: Bowers caught 112 balls a season ago, and only two other TEs earned 112 targets for the season. What we saw from the Georgia product last season was a one-of-one situation and therefore shouldn’t impact how we feel about the incoming class, but according to ADP, it seems to be giving drafters an increased level of confidence.
Loveland enters a situation where he has three receivers to compete with for targets, not to mention Cole Kmet (the 2024 Raiders had only three players reach 300 receiving yards for the entire season), and Warren not only has more competition than Bowers did, but his quarterback situation profiles as potentially paralyzing.
You could argue that Bowers didn’t exactly benefit from high-end QB play, but given his clear role as an alpha, he was able to volume his way through it. I’m not so sure that’s the case for Warren in Indy, where Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are legitimate route winners while Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell have tremendous one-target upside.
You likely read this bold prediction as a negative for the rookie tight ends, but that’s not really the case. The truth of the matter is that Mark Andrews and Tucker Kraft were fine options at the position in 2024 — they totaled 105 receptions and didn’t miss a single game.
