Despite all of our grand plans and machinations, fantasy football is a relatively simple game. The vast majority of players will be doing just fine to varying degrees. Championships are won and lost by a handful of players or outcomes that break fantasy.
Here are five such scenarios that, if we can be on the right side of, would have the potential to carry our teams to titles single-handedly.
What if Patrick Mahomes Has Another 2018 Season?
After Patrick Mahomes’ down 2023 season, fantasy managers gave him a mulligan. Even though the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Mahomes was operating with the worst set of pass catchers of his career. He had averaged 25.1 fantasy points per game the year before and had never averaged fewer than 20.7 PPG before 2023’s 18.4 PPG. Naturally, five years of elite production were going to outweigh one outlier season.
In 2024, things were trending back up for Mahomes. The Chiefs signed Hollywood Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice had emerged as an alpha. Travis Kelce was still around. Mahomes’ ADP didn’t drop. Then, it happened again.
Mahomes averaged 18.4 PPG in 2024, finishing as a low-end QB1 for the second consecutive year. That’s…fine. But it’s not what we expect from the best quarterback in the league and a guy with 50 TD upside.
Enjoy these 2018 Patrick Mahomes highlights! pic.twitter.com/9BTkTqrkXc https://t.co/BxNAIVzZpP
— Jacob ✍🏼 (@HitStickHicks) November 10, 2023
Now, fantasy managers are somewhat over it. Mahomes’ name value and elite upside still have him firmly in the mid-QB1 range. However, he’s no longer in the same conversation as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. What if he should be?
We know what full Mahomes looks like. We can confidently say that at some point over the next decade, we’re going to see Mahomes go nuclear once again. If it happens, this year, we’re talking about getting a guy who will win multiple matchups by himself in the sixth or seventh round.
Plus, it’s not just Mahomes. If we could see the future and knew Mahomes would average at least 22 PPG, all of his pass catchers would be going earlier in drafts.
The Mahomes, who threw 26 and 27 touchdowns each of the past two seasons, will not be supporting multiple WR1s, a WR3, and a TE1. The Mahomes who threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns seven years ago certainly can, though.
Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce would all be virtual locks to outperform their ADP expectations. We would likely be seeing a lot of Mahomes stacks on teams that made fantasy championships.
What if Christian McCaffrey Plays A Full Season?
Currently, McCaffrey’s ADP is No. 9 overall. He’s going at the tail end of the first round. That is still expensive and a considerable jump up from early Spring when he was going in the late second, but it’s not where he’d be going if he was coming off one of his healthy elite seasons.
Not all ADP differences are created equal. A nine-spot difference in Round 12 is meaningless. A nine-spot difference in Round 1 is massive. We are still getting a significant health-related discount on the best fantasy asset since LaDainian Tomlinson.
At his absolute ceiling, McCaffrey has the potential to push 30 PPG. He’s done it before, posting 29.3 PPG in his legendary 2019 season.
In San Francisco, his upside has been a little less because of all the offensive weapons. Suddenly, the team is a bit more barren.
Deebo Samuel Sr. is gone. Brandon Aiyuk is set to miss about half the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, and then is unlikely to be his usual self until next year. It’s seemingly just George Kittle set to factor into the situation, as both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are unproven. We could see the 49ers lean on a healthy McCaffrey more than ever before.
McCaffrey averaged those 29.3 PPG on a terrible Panthers team. Now, imagine him with similar usage on one of the best offenses in football.
By being able to draft McCaffrey near the 1/2 turn, fantasy managers can pair him with a caliber of player they should not be able to, creating the potential for some seriously broken teams.
What if the Lions Fully Embrace Jahmyr Gibbs?
By no means should anyone be critical of the Lions’ usage of Jahmyr Gibbs. At 199 pounds, it is probably for the best that they don’t feed him 400 touches in a season. But what if they did?
For the past two years, Gibbs has been mired in a timeshare with David Montgomery. Sonic and Knuckles complement each other perfectly. Montgomery provides the power, and Gibbs provides the explosiveness.
Gibbs has averaged 16.1 and 21.4 PPG in each of his first two seasons while never seeing an opportunity share above 53.2% or a snap share over 57.5%.
The elephant in the room is whether he can physically hold up. For the sake of his exercise, let’s assume he does.
Gibbs is currently going as the RB3 around No. 6 overall. He’s already quite expensive and is being drafted as if he will be leaned on more heavily than in previous years. Yet, there’s still a scenario, two in fact, where Gibbs ends up having been way too much.
That’s what makes Gibbs so appealing. There are two paths to him breaking fantasy. The first is if Montgomery gets hurt. That would naturally force the Lions to give Gibbs more work. But there’s also the outcome where Gibbs’ performance down the stretch last season made him undeniable.
Sit back and enjoy all 20 of Jahmyr Gibbs’ touchdowns last season 🍿 pic.twitter.com/X7yQuKfwxr
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) June 28, 2025
Montgomery is a good football player. He is nowhere close to the talent Gibbs is. The Lions are a better offense when Gibbs is on the field, and it’s not close. The Lions’ EPA per play was 0.11 when Montgomery was on the field. It shot up to 0.23 with Gibbs on the field.
The Lions enjoyed a favorable schedule and dominated a bunch of their games last season. Now, both of their coordinators are gone, and they’re set to face a first-place schedule. If games aren’t as easy to win, they could opt to feature their best player more.
Gibbs has played 26 career games with Montgomery against six career games without him. He’s averaged a powerful 16.9 PPG with his backfield mate on the field. Those are RB1 numbers. But without Montgomery, he’s averaged 27.4 PPG. That is breaking fantasy.
If Gibbs ever sees 400 opportunities in a season, we’re talking 2006 Tomlinson potential. He could easily top 2,000 yards from scrimmage, catch nearly 80 passes, and score 25+ times. In a scenario where we knew for sure that Gibbs played a full season with no Montgomery, he is the unquestioned No. 1 overall pick.
What if Tyreek Hill Is Still Tyreek Hill?
Last year, Tyreek Hill had the worst season since his rookie year when he wasn’t even a full-time player. Hill averaged 12.8 PPG, which made him one of the worst picks in all of fantasy, considering he was being drafted inside the top five picks in most leagues.
Now 31 years old, it’s risky to bank on a rebound. Typically, once a player reaches age 29, if he shows signs of decline, we should believe him. With Hill, though, there were extenuating circumstances that potentially leave the door open for a massive bounce back.
First, Hill had a rough offseason. He had some off-the-field issues, again, and tore ligaments in his wrist before the season even began. He played through the problem all season, and it hampered him.
Second, Tua Tagovailoa missed six games. The 2024 Dolphins’ offense without Tagovailoa might legitimately be the most embarrassing and pathetic in NFL history. Hill averaged 9.0 PPG with non-Tua QBs. He still averaged a respectable 14.9 PPG with Tagovailoa under center.
Tyreek Hill feels like the biggest piece to the puzzle of the 2025 fantasy football season.
Hes either washed and burns your 2/3 turn pick or you pair Bijan Robinson with a 20+ PPG WR and thrive
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) June 12, 2025
For his entire career, I’ve been an enormous Hill enthusiast. In 2017, he was merely a sophomore who largely came out of nowhere as a rookie. I enjoyed the depressed ADP, but knew I’d never get it again. Then, in 2018, for reasons that I cannot fathom to this day, he still wasn’t being drafted anywhere near his ceiling. I said thank you very much and drafted all the Hill I could.
After that, I knew it was over. Hill’s ADP was firmly in the first round, and that wasn’t going to change until he was done. Then, something unexpected happened. In 2022, Hill was traded to the Dolphins. He was now going from Mahomes, the best quarterback in football and someone who fit his skill set perfectly, to Tagovailoa, largely unproven and viewed as a significant downgrade.
Once again, I was able to get a discounted Hill.
As he always does, Hill proved everyone wrong, and that was that. Surely, this was the last time we’d ever be able to draft Hill outside of the first round.
Then, 2024 happened. Now, there are concerns about Hill declining. There are concerns about what happens if Tagovailoa gets hurt again. Both of them are very fair. Hill may end up being a disaster.
I can confidently say there’s just about a 0% chance Hill is worth his 2/3 turn ADP. He will either be a massive bust or one of the best picks in fantasy. Either Hill is done or he’s not. Either Tagovailoa stays healthy or he doesn’t.
Fantasy managers could end up getting a player that should be going inside the top five picks at the 2/3 turn. I am very tempted to take one last ride with Hill.
What if Rookie-Year Breece Hall Returns?
Rookie year, Breece Hall was a sight to behold. He displayed incredible explosiveness and efficiency, leading the league in yards per touch (6.9) and evading tackles per touch rate (50.5%). Unfortunately, it only lasted seven games, as Hall tore his ACL. When he went down, he was averaging 16.4 PPG, well on his way to finishing as an RB1.
In his first year back after tearing his ACL, Hall was able to play in Week 1, but took about half the season to get acclimated. He still wound up averaging 17.1 PPG, but didn’t look like his rookie season self until the final month or so.
Then, something strange happened in 2024. Hall’s efficiency dipped. He primarily thrived on passing volume, leading all running backs in routes run. Since Hall was a consensus top-three running back, fantasy managers were understandably disappointed.
It’s strange how in some situations, players get passes for down years and in others, they don’t. Hall is not getting a pass for his disappointing season, with his ADP way down around the 3/4 turn.
Hall is 24 years old. He’s already displayed elite upside. What if it comes back? What if the Jets lean on Hall as a three-down back like they did towards the end of the 2023 season? The guy who was being taken inside the top five overall picks last year still exists.
Imagine a world where someone picks around Nos. 8-10 and takes McCaffrey in Round 1, Hill in Round 3, and Hall in Round 4. It’s feasible. There’s a scenario where we’re looking at this team in October and wondering how we let it happen.
