The Los Angeles Chargers were widely expected to draft a running back. Even after signing Najee Harris, they spent a first-round selection on Omarion Hampton. Clearly, their RB1 of the future, what can fantasy football managers expect from Harris in 2025?
Najee Harris Fantasy Outlook
Harris is a fascinating player because the perception of him never matched the reality. Seeing him supposedly burst onto the scene as a rookie and post RB1 numbers, averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game in 2021, skewed how the fantasy community views him.
Even though Harris has never gotten close to the fantasy heights of his rookie season, the reality is he hasn’t actually gotten worse (or significantly better). He’s been relatively the same guy his entire career.
One thing Harris certainly deserves credit for is always playing football. It’s exceedingly rare and difficult for a modern NFL running back not to miss a game. That’s what Harris has done his entire career.
The production has been mostly the same. Harris has averaged between 3.8 and 4.1 yards per carry every year of his career. Over the past three seasons, he’s somehow managed to rush for almost the same number of yards, ranging from 1,035 to 1,043. However, his fantasy points per game have been between 11.5 and 13.2. He went from mid RB1 to mid RB2 to finishing as an RB3. But … why?
As a rookie, Harris was playing with the last remnants of a once-great Ben Roethlisberger — a man who could no longer push the ball down the field. That led to an outlier passing game role where Harris saw a 14.5% target share. Fantasy managers can point to this volume as the sole reason Harris posted RB1 numbers.
Since then, Harris’ target shares have been 9.7%, 7.9%, and 10.4%. Those are workable target rates, but nothing that will allow Harris to reach the heights he did as a rookie.
In Pittsburgh, Harris was able to survive on volume and his status as the primary goal line back for a team that wanted to run. While he joins another team that wants to run in the Chargers, it appears his time as a lead back is over.
It’s a Matter of When, Not If Omarion Hampton Relegates Harris to Pure Backup
The Chargers did not spend a first-round selection on Omarion Hampton to plant him behind Harris for an extended period. It wouldn’t be surprising if Harris got the ceremonial start to begin the season, or even for the entire season. But the player handling the majority of the snaps will be Hampton sooner rather than later.
Hampton led the ACC in rushing yards for two straight seasons with rushing totals of 1,504 and 1,660 yards. He’s also a solid receiver, amassing 601 yards on 67 receptions over his final two years at North Carolina. With 20+ carries in seven games, Hampton has the durability to handle large workloads.
At 6’0″, 221 pounds, Hampton has ideal size for a lead back. His 4.46 40-time gives him a 93rd-percentile speed score. He’s younger, faster, and more explosive than Harris with a better receiving profile.
Omarion Hampton:
#2 best RB *in the last DECADE* in YPC on runs when hit behind the line
#2 in highest percentage of team’s entire touches (44%)
#2 in highest % of team’s entire receptions (17%)
96th percentile in explosion score in jumping drills
profile of a true workhorse… pic.twitter.com/JgfZvmtGBZ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 13, 2025
On a different team, perhaps both of these backs could be fantasy viable. Many NFL teams have two running backs who are viable fantasy starters. While both are definitely going to be worth rostering, the Chargers simply don’t run enough plays for both to be useful.
Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers play extremely slowly. They were the slowest team in the league in neutral game script, averaging 30.7 seconds per snap. That was 0.4 seconds slower than the next slowest team, and a staggering 4.0 seconds behind the league’s fastest team.
Regardless of whether we’re investing in an NFL team’s run or pass game, we want them to play faster because more plays run are better for fantasy. In the absence of that, we need targets to help bolster a fantasy floor. Well, the Chargers targeted their running backs at an 11.8% clip last season. Only the Rams did so at a lower rate.
What we’re looking at here with Harris is a back that is going to, at best, share carries with Hampton, with minimal receiving upside. He might be the goal-line back. He might not. They might share that role as well. Either way, the path to Harris getting anywhere near his level of production from even the past two seasons is very difficult to see.
Speaking of seeing the path, that’s something Harris appears to be struggling with at the moment. Harris injured his eye in a Fourth of July fireworks incident and, as of the first week of August, has yet to participate in training camp. This will only serve to expedite the rookie’s ascent.
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At best, Harris is a committee back who is a touchdown-dependent RB3. At worst, he is completely vanquished by Hampton and nothing more than a handcuff.
Harris’ ADP sits at RB35, which is probably not realistic anymore. Instead, it’s a number lingering from drafts that occurred before the extent of his injury was revealed. Even at RB40 or 45, though, I have zero interest in Harris.
At that point in the draft, you want to focus on players who have the potential to trend upward. Harris is a 27-year-old veteran changing teams onto one that just drafted a running back in the first round. I have Harris at RB53 and cannot imagine taking him anywhere.
Frank Ammirante’s Najee Harris Fantasy Projections
Najee Harris was slated to form a committee in a terrific running scheme with Omarion Hampton and the Chargers. However, after a freak accident on the 4th of July, Harris is likely to miss some time with an eye injury.
This has caused his ADP to crash closer to 200. I’m willing to buy the discount, but only in best ball, where his floor as a red-zone threat is a nice late-round piece to my RB room. In redraft leagues, I’m aiming for more upside, targeting younger players like Tahj Brooks, who can be a late-round handcuff for Chase Brown.
With that said, it’s a terrific setup for Harris because it’s a run-heavy offense. Even with OT Rashawn Slater out for the season, this is still a good offensive line with an effective running scheme with Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. I expect Harris to form a committee with Hampton once he returns, but the issue is that we don’t know when that will be.
