For over a decade now, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has been as solid as it gets in fantasy football. But he’s getting older, and the end is coming soon. Is this the year Evans finally declines, or should fantasy managers scoop up one of the most consistent players in fantasy at a value in 2025 drafts?
Should You Draft Mike Evans in Fantasy?
There’s an argument to be made that Evans is the most reliable WR in fantasy football history. He was never the best or even truly elite, with his best season of 18.8 fantasy points per game. But for 11 consecutive years, Evans has finished from a mid-WR2 to a high-WR1 10 times.
The worst season of Evans’ career came in 2017 when he averaged a still-useful 13.4 PPG. Since 2018, he’s averaged between 15.0 and 18.1 PPG every year. As a reminder, 16.0 PPG is roughly the threshold for WR1 production. He is a machine.
Throughout his career, Evans has largely been an iron man. He’s missed a total of 14 games in 11 years. However, Evans hasn’t always been in the pinnacle of health. He’s spent considerable time on the injury report. He’s just been able to play through nagging injuries and has always been a quick healer.
Our highest Average Separation Scores on slants in 2024:
1. Brian Thomas Jr. – .500
2. Dontayvion Wicks – .450
3. Mike Evans – .395
4. Romeo Doubs – .360
5. A.J. Brown – .316In fact, here’s how they stack up across their entire route trees: https://t.co/bOywp1Rt8O pic.twitter.com/fHKsGv26hG
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 19, 2025
Another all-time great wideout, Julio Jones, had a similar pattern. Eventually, his body was no longer able to recover. For Jones, that occurred at 31. We saw glimpses of this last season when Evans missed three games with a hamstring strain. It’s the soft tissue injuries that usually get them.
Now 32, fantasy managers must grapple with the possibility that Evans’ 2025 season could resemble Julio’s 2021 campaign when he was limited to 10 games and averaged a paltry 8.0 PPG.
At first, your reaction may be shock and disbelief. How could Evans, who is coming off a season in which he showed no signs of decline and averaged 17.2 PPG, suddenly be that bad? I’m not saying it’s likely. But in 2020, Julio averaged 16.2 PPG. The very next year, it was over.
Evans has already fended off Father Time quite well. Wide receivers with his sort of skill set tend not to age all that gracefully.
The Bucs are already preparing for life after Evans. Jalen McMillan posted WR1 numbers over the final five weeks of the 2024 season. Yet, the team drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round anyway. There are some teams that don’t even have two quality starting receivers. You can argue the Bucs have four.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
That said, fantasy managers are baking this risk into Evans’ price. His ADP sits at WR21, a number he has finished above every year of his career except 2015. And, again, while decline is certainly possible, we haven’t seen any signs.
Taking on older wide receivers is definitely risky. But if you think about every wide receiver in the past 25 years or so who has excelled into his mid-30s, all of them are all-time greats (Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, to name a few). Evans is an all-time great.
Last year, Evans averaged 2.44 yards per route run, 13th in the league. He was targeted on 26.8% of his routes run, good for 18th in the league. This is still a true WR1.
Baker Mayfield is playing like the guy the Browns thought they were getting when they selected him No. 1 overall in 2018. The Bucs also project to have a bad defense. They play in a division with multiple teams in domes and have a lot of potential shootouts on their schedule.
Evans may only have a year or two left as an impactful fantasy asset. With that said, I inclined to take younger receivers whose best season is undoubtedly in front of them over Evans. I have the Bucs veteran as my WR21, which is slightly behind his WR18 ADP. Regrettably, I don’t anticipate drafting much Evans this season.
Frank Ammirante’s Mike Evans Fantasy Projection
Mike Evans has been the model of consistency throughout his career, putting up 1,000-plus yards in each of his 11 seasons. We saw him put up 74 catches, 1,004 yards, and 11 touchdowns in only 14 games last year.
Still, this is a wideout that is now entering his age-32 season. Remember that a veteran can decline abruptly. We have to consider this risk when determining whether to take them at a high opportunity cost, like the third round.
The bull case for Evans is that this is a stud with a long track record, playing in a pass-heavy offense that should be involved in several shootouts due to a vulnerable defense. With Chris Godwin not yet 100%, Evans should be in line for several targets.
My preferred approach is to look elsewhere in the third round. You can go with an elite quarterback or tight end like Lamar Jackson or George Kittle. Then, simply wait to the seventh round to take Evans’ teammate Emeka Egbuka, who is making major waves in camp.
Since Egbuka is one of my top targets, I often stay away from Evans, since I don’t want two Bucs wideouts on the same team. Given his advanced age, I suggest looking elsewhere.
