Matthew Golden Fantasy Outlook
For decades, NFL teams have been obsessed with speed. It makes sense on the surface. Football is a game where athleticism is important. The goal is to get from point A to point B before the defense can stop you. A faster player will be harder to stop.
Of course, there’s a lot more to being good at football than raw speed. Over the years, we’ve seen a lot of very fast players fail at the NFL level because all they had was their speed.
Matthew Golden is very fast. The combination of his 4.29 40-time and his stretch of elite production in his final year at Texas skyrocketed his draft stock. But that’s really all Golden has to go on.
All Round 1 WRs to Average <85.0 YPG in Best NCAA Season (2014-2025)
Matthew Golden (61.7)*
Henry Ruggs (62.0)
Phillip Dorsett (67.0)
Calvin Ridley (69.7)
Kelvin Benjamin (72.2)
Xavier Worthy (72.4)
Quentin Johnston (76.2)
Jalen Reagor (80.0)
Breshad Perriman (80.3)
John Ross…— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) February 28, 2025
Meanwhile, Golden’s speed may actually be working against him. History tells us there may be such a thing as “too fast.”
At wide receiver, speed helps, but it isn’t overly important. We really just need wide receivers to hit a minimum threshold required to play at a professional level. If a player can merely get to a 4.65 40-time, that’s good enough. Their technical receiving ability can take it from there.
Among Round 1-3 WRs since 2000 who ran a 4.55 40-time or slower are Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Plaxico Burress, Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Jarvis Landry, and Anquan Boldin. That’s a lot of hits.
What about at the top, though? Surely, faster is better…right?
Golden ran a 4.29 40-time, which puts his speed score in the 91st percentile. While Golden’s draft stock was rising before the NFL Combine, it was his 40-time that really pushed him into the first round. NFL teams continue to overweight speed at wide receiver even though history suggests not only that they shouldn’t, but that it may actually be a negative.
Here is every wide receiver to run a 4.31 40-time or faster since 2000. Notice anything?
Worthy had a strong close to his rookie season and is trending toward being very good. Donte Stallworth had four seasons ranging from 11.2 to 12.8 fantasy points per game. Not terrible, but certainly a bust by Round 1 WR standards.
Curtis Samuel has had a solid career, but nothing spectacular. Santana Moss is the only one who is indisputably a hit. Every other super-fast wide receiver did not even come close to producing fantasy-relevant numbers.
We can gamble that Golden will buck the trend. He landed in a great spot in Green Bay. They have a talented young QB in Jordan Love. Their wide receiver room is deep, but it lacks a clear top option. Golden could absolutely be that guy. He can also be that guy for the Packers while still not being a reliable fantasy producer.
Golden has all the makings of a better in real life than fantasy guy, if he’s even that much.
The Packers Do Not Pass Enough
Another concern for Golden is the Packers’ commitment to running the ball with Josh Jacobs. In 2023, the Packers had a 45% neutral game script run rate. In 2024, it was 53%, which led the league.
If you look at the teams that are typically at the top of the league in neutral game script run rate, it’s the ones with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Lamar Jackson (those were the next three teams on the list). The Packers have a pocket passer and still ran the ball more than anyone else in a neutral game script.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they played slow, averaging 29.4 seconds per snap, the ninth-slowest pace in the league. They also ran 540 plays, a staggering 26 fewer than the next-lowest team. By contrast, the Chiefs ran 839 plays, leading the league.
The concern for 2025 is what exactly is going to change? If the Packers end up being surprisingly terrible on defense, they will have no choice but to play faster and run more plays. But we have no reason to predict that. They will likely have an average to good defense and run a similar offensive scheme.
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How much volume can we really project for Golden, even if he ends up being better than I expect?
Even if Golden ends up panning out and I am wrong about his overall talent, he’s still likely not to be an impact fantasy asset as a rookie. I have Golden ranked at WR49, which is five spots below his WR46 ADP. While I am generally in the business of taking shots on unproven talents in the later rounds, there are plenty of those going around Golden whom I like more.
Dan Fornek’s Matthew Golden Fantasy Projection
Green Bay had been hoping that one of their young receivers would emerge as an alpha wide receiver over the last two seasons, but none have, despite being effective NFL players. Instead of waiting on potential again in 2025, the Packers selected Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Golden was not a prolific producer in college, but he had his best season during his final year in Texas, catching 58 passes for 987 yards and nine touchdowns in 16 games. He solidified himself as a first-round pick after running a 4.29 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11, 191 pounds at the NFL Combine.
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The rookie’s college film showed a sharp route runner with reliable hands and the speed to threaten defenses vertically (even if the 4.29 speed isn’t always evident). So far in training camp, he has consistently flashed those same abilities, consistently earning praise from Jordan Love and the coaching staff. Golden is set to be one of the two receivers in two receiver sets, so his snap share should be enough to earn a steady target share.
Suppose Golden can earn a consistent target share and emerge as a trusted piece of the offense early on. In that case, he can be an immediate top 24 wide receiver in fantasy due to his offensive environment and skillset. At worst, given his speed, he should be able to provide boom-or-bust weeks. Golden is a high-end WR3 with a top 20 ceiling in fantasy as a rookie.
