Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is coming off two seasons where he did not see much volume. He did start to come on strong toward the end of his sophomore campaign. Was that a fluke or the start of Mims emerging into a weekly fantasy football option?
Marvin Mims Jr. Fantasy Outlook
You will never find me endorsing someone like Mims following his rookie year. Future production can, of course, convince me to change my mind. But, as a general rule, I will blanket dismiss every rookie wide receiver drafted in the first three rounds who fails to reach 525 receiving yards. As a rookie, Mims caught 22 passes for 377 yards.
Despite a shallow depth chart and Sean Payton’s comments about needing to utilize Mims more, he was not even a thought for me in 2024.
Overall, this worked out. There was no value in drafting Mims. He averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game and remained an afterthought in the Broncos’ offense for most of the season. Emphasis on most.
Mims did have moments of brilliance. In Week 13, he posted 19.9 fantasy points on Thursday Night Football. In Week 17, he scored 30.2 fantasy points in an overtime thriller against the Bengals on a Saturday afternoon. In Week 18, he put up 22.1 fantasy points against the Chiefs’ backups.
NIX. MIMS. 93 YARDS TO THE CRIB.
📺: #CLEvsDEN on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/pHzTvYKEoK— NFL (@NFL) December 3, 2024
The perception surrounding Mims seems to be that he came on strong late in the season and earned the Broncos’ WR2 role. Are we sure that’s what happened? I see a player who happened to record two of his best performances in standalone games for the entire world to see, creating vividness bias.
Based on when Mims had his spike weeks, he really didn’t have any fantasy value. Before Week 13, Mims’ best week was 13.3 fantasy points. Every other game was under 7.2. No one started him.
After that Week 13 explosion, Mims posted games of 6.0 and 9.5. Did anyone have the beans to start him in the fantasy championship? Then, his follow-up in Week 18 was helpful to no one because we don’t play fantasy football in Week 18.
Of course, none of this matters for 2025. All we need to figure out is if it was the start of something. Color me skeptical.
Seeing Mims have some big moments was great, but that’s all they were. Do you know how many regular-season games Mims played at least 50% of the snaps? The answer is zero. Mims hit 20 routes run in a game just once all season. Most weeks, he was in the single digits.
He posted 29.5% targets per route run rate, seventh in the league. It’s excellent that Mims was targeted so often when he ran a route, but it also tells a different story. Mims was used as a gadget player. The Broncos brought him in to scheme him the ball, but it was only situationally.
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Mims’ 2.86 yards per route run was fourth in the league. Unfortunately, he ran a route on 29.7% of Bo Nix’s dropbacks.
As efficient as Mims was last season, there’s nothing here for fantasy unless he is on the field more. His WR56 ADP suggests fantasy managers are not exactly optimistic about that increase.
I have Mims ranked as my WR59, which aligns with the consensus. There’s no risk in taking a shot on a proven, efficient player at that price. If we don’t see an increase in snaps and routes run early in the season, we can just drop him. If we do, maybe we get a WR3 for free.
Mason LeBeau‘s Marvin Mims Jr. Fantasy Projection
The Broncos are another ambiguous receiving corp you should be targeting. Behind Courtland Sutton, plenty of targets are up for grabs. Marvin Mims should be the first up after him, entering year three as a former second-round pick that HC Sean Payton made a point to trade up for in his first draft in Denver.Â
Thusfar, Mims has had underwhelming returns. Just 377 yards as a rookie, and 503 last year. He’s settled into a field-stretcher role with designed touches as well, but he hasn’t developed into a full-time true receiver yet. There are signs that it’s starting to come together, like scoring six times over the last seven weeks, or going over 100 yards receiving twice in the same time span. This is a player who could be a real impact if he manages to take another step forward.Â
However, his role still might not be ideal for fantasy. He’s an efficiency monster when he produces, but leaves empty calories when he doesn’t. There are a lot of mouths to feed here, and if the defense plays up to expectations, they may not need to pass much either. At WR57, he’s borderline draftable, so he’s worth a shot if you need a sparkplug receiver for depth.Â
