We all know that Malik Nabers is great. Less than 18 months ago, the New York Giants made the former LSU wide receiver the sixth overall pick, and in Year 1, he proved to the world that the price they paid for his services may not have been steep enough.
With a 109-catch season now on his resume, Nabers is universally being labeled as a first-round fantasy football asset. That means a repeat of his borderline historic rookie campaign wouldn’t be nice to have. It has to be had.
Are savvy managers paying for his seemingly limitless ceiling or building their roster around someone else with their pick in the second half of the first round?
Malik Nabers’ Fantasy Outlook
There seems to be a ground swell to put Nabers’ name next to elites at the position who have already carved out a clear path to a gold jacket. And I get it.
In the scope of LSU receivers alone, he had more targets last season than Odell Beckham’s career high, caught more passes per game than Ja’Marr Chase in any of his first three seasons, and averaged 6.4% more PPR points per game than Justin Jefferson did during his first year.
He’s amazing. But is he transcendent?
I admire what the Giants did with him in 2024, opting to prioritize getting him the ball as opposed to falling in love with the upside. We saw the Bengals fall into the trap of trying to maximize every single Chase reception during his first season (13.6 aDOT, but a 63.3% catch rate) before structuring the offense in a more efficient year (single-digit aDOT in each of the three years since, posting a 69.2% catch rate in the process.
Here’s a look at his target bucket from last year compared to the two active greats mentioned above (the percentage is the catch rate on such targets, and the size of the box reflects the volume of looks in each specified area.
Malik Nabers, 2024
Ja’Marr Chase, 2024
Justin Jefferson, 2024
Mike Kafka is back as the offensive coordinator after another season of intrigue at the head coaching level from various sources, making a similar target tree a reasonable projection.
In an offense that remains limited on the talent front outside of Nabers, having access to the type of floor that comes with that role at this stage in his career is massive and should be appealing to fantasy owners when they are on the clock for the first time.
But is the per-game upside high enough?
Your instant reaction will likely question my sanity, and that’s fine. I just laid out the case for Nabers being on that Chase/Jefferson trajectory, and they go with the first two picks regularly. That said, I will need to see some proof of concept first.
Jefferson was the top overall pick in 2023 and cleared 1,000 yards in 10 games, but because of a lack of stability under center, he was a back-of-first-round selection. That may sound like a minor dip, but it makes a difference at this level.
Now, Jefferson specifically was able to pay off your optimism with a great 2025. Still, the point is that we were skeptical even of an all-time great who already had three seasons of good will built up and had a quarterback who, despite underwhelming production, had at least seen live NFL action.
For Nabers, he has just a single season of production and projects to see the majority of his passes from rookie Jaxson Dart this season. That, of course, doesn’t mean he can’t be a star. He can be, and there’s a path for him to finish as the WR1. I’m not blind to that, but the limited ceiling case is what gives me pause.
Deep Receiving Profile, 2024
- PPG: Chase (7.62), Jefferson (7.59), and Nabers (4.61)
- Target Share: Nabers (49.4%), Chase (38.1%), and Jefferson (36.2%)
- Production Relative To Expectation: Chase (+112.6%), Jefferson (+73.5%), and Nabers (-1.6%)
Malik Nabers finished with the fourth-most “unrealized” air yards in 2024 (876).
New Giants QB Russell Wilson was the most efficient deep ball passer in 2024, completing 27-of-50 (54%) of 20+ air yard throws for 851 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs
Here are some of Nabers’ unrealized yards: pic.twitter.com/2NTt3oY7Ba— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) June 18, 2025
If I’m regressing any of the numbers above, it’s probably Nabers’ deep ball target share over the efficiency of those looks. That 49.4% rate is better than any season Davante Adams has put forth during his elite career, and while the G-Men aren’t exactly loaded with alternative options, it’s simply a high rate to sustain.
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With the QB play being what it is in New York, or at least what it projects to be, any dip in usage rates is going to make returning Round 1 draft capital an uphill battle as you’re banking on volume, not the expected return on each single opportunity.
Nabers is worth the hype, and the football fan in me wants to say that he is a slightly younger version of Jefferson, where his greatness is a more potent force than his surrounding cast.
The math part of me, however, is the one that shows up on draft day, and I’m having a hard time seeing him doing enough to justify passing on an Amon-Ra St. Brown or Nico Collins type when I’m on the clock.
Dan Fornek’s Malik Nabers Fantasy Projection
Malik Nabers’ rookie season was a resounding success despite terrible quarterback play. Nabers finished as the WR7 in PPR points per game in his first season, catching 109 of 170 targets for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns. Nabers led all wide receivers in target share (34.9%) and was second in targets (170) and target rate (31.2%). He was fifth in deep targets (28) and fourth in air yards (1,618).
Unfortunately, the play of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tim Boyle, and Tommy DeVito at quarterback hindered his ceiling. Nabers had the fourth most unrealized air yards (876) with just 74.1% of his passes being deemed catchable.
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The Giants brought in two veteran quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston) and added a first-round rookie in 2025 (Jaxson Dart), hoping to improve quarterback play for Nabers. Wilson looks set to start, which certainly opens up the deep plays for Nabers in his second season. He had the second-best deep ball completion percentage (46.7) of all quarterbacks last season. More importantly, the Giants didn’t add significant target competition, giving Nabers the runway to dominate targets again in his second season.
Nabers is a first-round fantasy pick with the workload needed to finish as WR1 overall in fantasy. 2024’s WR7 finish feels like a floor outcome for a heavily targeted receiver who got a quarterback upgrade if he stays healthy.
