Kyren Williams generated some hype during his first NFL season after being selected in the fifth round of the 2022 draft. Unfortunately, a high ankle sprain in his debut resulted in eight missed games and prevented him from making an impact on the game.
In the two seasons since, however, he’s cashed in on that promise and then some. He’s scored 31 times in 28 regular-season games since the start of the 2023 season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and establishing himself as one of the most stable performers at the position in the process.
Should you feel comfortable building a redraft winner around Williams by plucking him off the board with a top-20 pick?
Kyren Williams Fantasy Outlook
Derrick Henry.
There it is. There’s your entire list of RBs with more rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons than Kyren Williams. He’s entering his age-25 season, and we learned last season that 2024 third-round pick Blake Corum is not to be viewed as a threat to his workload (11 games last season with fewer than five carries, with none of his 65 touches picking up more than 12 yards).
KYREN WILLIAMS FRONT FLIPS FOR THE TD 🔥
📺: #SFvsLAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/B3woypwrfY— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Matthew Stafford returning to this franchise for another season should be viewed as a net positive for Williams’ value, as he is a veteran quarterback who can put this offense in a position to succeed.
Gone are Cooper Kupp (entering his age-32 season) and Davante Adams (turned 32 in December), a shuffling of past-their-prime-but-still-feared wideouts. Puka Nacua’s star continues to ascend, but outside of him, there isn’t much in the way of developing pieces that figure to take much usage off the plate of Williams.
In those two strong seasons, Williams has averaged 21.8 touches per game, and if he can stay healthy, such a role should be expected in 2025. He’s done just about everything well, and if you’ve rostered him, you’ve been satisfied. Still, in a league that prioritizes versatility, the fact that the percentage of touches via the reception shrunk from 12.3% in 2023 to 9.7% in 2024 is at least noteworthy.
Bellcow running backs are hard to find as it is, and ones approaching their physical prime are even more rare – the case for Williams is pretty straightforward, but I’m approaching him with much more apprehension than the drafting community is.
Why I’m Passing On Kyren Williams in 2025
Off the top, I mentioned that King Henry is the only back in the league with more rushing scores than Williams over the past two regular seasons, and that is 100% true.
Williams has displayed a nose for the end zone, and that has masked the dip in involvement in the pass game. That’s great – until it’s not.
In those two seasons, the Rams rank 20th in rush rate inside the five-yard line, a note that I’m guessing will catch you off guard the way it did me, because it seems that every time they appear in the red zone, it seems to be followed by a Williams carry near the goal line.
Williams has simply been phenomenal in those spots. Across those two seasons, he’s punched in 20-of-32 such carries (62.5%, NFL average for other qualified RBs: 43.5%), the best rate among RBs on that list who profile as starters this season.
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Maybe he has the magic touch, but the risk of regression in terms of efficiency at least has to be considered. This isn’t exactly a stat that has proven sticky over the years, and you need not look any further than the reigning champion Eagles as evidence of as much.
- 2023 D’Andre Swift (PHI): Two TDs on 10 such carries
- 2024 D’Andre Swift (CHI): Three TDs on eight such carries
- 2024 Saquon Barkley (PHI): Four TDs on 13 such carries
- 2023 Saquon Barkley (NYG): Four TDs on six such carries
The quality of the offense drives opportunities, but conversion rates are tough to carry over from year to year, and I’m worried that the addition of Davante Adams only introduces more risk in terms of the volume of these highly valuable carries.
But surely, Williams is good in scoring situations that aren’t right on the doorstep, right?
Wrong.
Over those two seasons, 29 running backs have 300+ carries and at least one score from 5-19 yards out (red zone carries outside of Williams’ sweet spot) – Williams ranks 21st among them in touchdown rate (five-of-83, 6%).
The best days of both Adams and Stafford are in the rearview, but the tank is far from empty and that leaves the door open for regression to the level that makes spending a second round pick on Williams a season sinker.
- Weeks 11-18: Stafford ranked ahead of Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes in passer rating.
- Weeks 13-18: Adams was the only player with 40 catches and six TD receptions
The spreadsheets have me worried here, and that’s without allocating much work in the direction of Jarquez Hunter, a running back out of Auburn who the Rams spent the 117th overall pick on in April.
Frank Ammirante’s Kyren Williams Fantasy Projection
Kyren Williams continued to see heavy volume last season, despite being one of the least explosive running backs in the NFL. After the Rams selected running back Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round this year, there were concerns that the team would deploy more of a committee behind Williams for 2025.
But there’s no need to worry about that after Williams recently signed a three-year extension worth $33 million in early August. It’s clear that this is a back that Sean McVay trusts and wants on the field as much as possible.
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While he goes at a time in the draft when I’m looking for wideouts like Jaxon Smith-Njigba after an RB-RB start in the first two rounds, the Rams starter looks like a high-floor pick at cost.Â
Expect Williams to continue to work as a bellcow. Even if Hunter (or even Blake Corum) is mixed in a bit more than usual, Williams will have a heavy role in the red zone for a high-scoring offense. With that in mind, this is a cemented top-15 back with upside to finish in the top-seven.
