Expectations are always sky-high for No. 1 overall picks. Kyler Murray has obviously fallen well short of expectations for the Arizona Cardinals, hence their decision to move on from him. But does that mean fantasy football managers should, too? Perhaps not so fast.
Should You Draft Kyler Murray in Fantasy Football?
It’s completely understandable why the Arizona Cardinals moved on from Murray. Sometimes, both player and team need to start fresh. Murray had run his course in Arizona after spending his first seven seasons there and leading the team to just one playoff appearance.
A 38-48-1 record from the guy who was supposed to be the face of the franchise is not good any way you slice it. But there’s a difference between failing to perform as a No. 1 overall pick is expected to and being a bad quarterback unworthy of starting in the NFL.
The discourse seems to be that Murray shouldn’t be a starter. Is he ever going to end up being worthy of that No. 1 overall pick in 2019? Probably not. But is Murray one of the 32 best quarterbacks walking the planet right now? Absolutely.
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I fully expect Murray to win the QB battle with JJ McCarthy and, barring injury, to start all 17 games. He’s better. It’s not close. This is important because, in fantasy, we don’t want our QBs to be at risk of getting benched like 2025 Justin Fields.
When starting, Murray has really never been bad, which is why the negativity surrounding him in fantasy is baffling.
Last season, injury and the Cardinals quietly moving on from him midseason resulted in Murray averaging a career-worst 15.6 fantasy points per game in just five games played. In his six previous years, Murray finished as a QB1 in all of them, with his lowest PPG average a still respectable 17.5 in 2024.
We have seen truly elite QB1 numbers from Murray before. He averaged 23.7 PPG in 2020 and 21.5 PPG in 2021.
Perhaps it’s not fair to say Murray still has that potential. However, in Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly scheme with a treasure trove of offense weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings, the pieces are in place for a big-time rebound.
Murray’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spent premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
For a while, Murray was in that phylum. Despite him falling out of it in recent years, the mobility he offers kept his fantasy floor at a level that made him viable in fantasy. Now, he finds himself playing for a coach who turned Sam Darnold from likely headed to the UFL into a future Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
Murray isn’t being totally discarded. His QB17 ADP suggests fantasy managers are buying that he’s not quite as bad as he was last season. But a healthy Murray has never finished that low. He is being drafted below his floor.
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We have Murray ranked at QB17, but that is largely a product of the linear nature of rankings. The reality is there is a large group of quarterbacks in that mid-to-high QB2 range that all have a ton of vertical upside.
Elite, difference-making QBs matter. We know Josh Allen will provide that, but you have to pay for it. With Murray, we’ve seen him provide it before on multiple occasions. He’s obviously far less likely to reach those heights than someone like Allen or Lamar Jackson, but the price to find out is much cheaper.
As important as finding an elite QB is, it’s way more valuable if you can get that production without having to sacrifice the early-round RB or WR you would otherwise take. Waiting on QB is as viable as ever this season, and Murray’s name should be circled on draft boards as the guy to target.
Preseason Fantasy QB Rankings
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- Bryce Young | CAR
