The 2024 season may not have gone according to script for Arizona (and fantasy football) fans who were invested in Murray, but be patient. His QB+ in 2022 was 63.9 (28th among qualifiers), a grade that rose to 71.6 the following season (20th), and, despite a lack of consistency from Marvin Harrison Jr., to 77.2 in 2024 (16th).
Fantasy Football Ace: Kyle Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
We know that not all development is linear, so what if Harrison’s growth simply got flipped with Puka Nacua’s? Harrison entered with expectations and underwhelmed early, while Nacua burst onto the scene as a fifth-round rookie. Typically, you’d expect the Day 3 pick to take more time, but not all paths are the same.
During Nacua’s breakout season, Matthew Stafford saw his finishing QB+ grade improve by 22.8% from the season prior. If the pedigree of Harrison shines through this season and we pencil in Murray for similar growth, his QB+ would check in at 94.8 (for reference, the four QBs who were named MVP finalists this past season had an average QB+ of 93.1).
The Cardinals play the ‘South’ divisions this season while facing Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Dak Prescott as a result of their third-place finish this season. This team is going to prioritize putting points on the board, and Murray’s trajectory gives him a path to a special season.
2025 Kyler Murray Is Who We Wanted 2024 Kyler Murray to Be
Skeptics will point to the sporadic nature of Murray’s rushing production (60.9% of his rush fantasy points came in five games last season), and I’m not here to argue that his rushing floor will approach that of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson this season. It won’t.
However, I argue that mobility remains a valuable asset worth considering.
Not because he averaged a career-high 7.3 yards per carry last season, but because of what his passing diet looked like when on the move. Here are the top-5 quarterbacks from 2024 in terms of increase in average depth of throw when out of the pocket as compared to when in it:
- Josh Allen: +97.2%
- Murray: +70.5%
- C.J. Stroud: +64.9%
- Drake Maye: +55.1%
- Lamar Jackson: +51.9%
KYLER MURRAY IS ELECTRIC. #AZCardinals
📺: #MINvsAZ on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/MQ2THg6Qau— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
My guess? I’ll be higher on all three of those middle names than the industry this year. Their combination of athleticism and aggression is something I want to buy now while the stock is lower than I expect it to be in 12 months.
My top tier at the QB position for 2025 is going to be the same as most (Jackson, Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts) – I give Murray as good a shot as any to be the next man on the year-end scoring leaderboard, something that I don’t expect to be shared amongst most others in the industry.
