Nothing says “fantasy football season” like breaking down the Kyle Pitts situation.
He was an elite prospect and posted one of the better seasons by a rookie tight end in history (2021: 68 catches for 1,026 yards), but he has been unable to build or even sustain that level of production in the three years since.
He’s still just 24 years old, and this offense has more long-term optimism now than in years past. Lucy is teeing up the football again. Are you willing to take a swing?
Kyle Pitts’ Fantasy Outlook
The discourse around Pitts will be a fascinating cultural study for psychologists down the road. However, we are still in the middle of it and faced with an interesting ultimatum: completely give up or embrace the discount.
WHAT A THROW BY MICHAEL PENIX JR. TO KYLE PITTS ON FOURTH DOWN TO TIE IT 🔥
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/b21LMa3BUp
— ESPN (@espn) December 30, 2024
We can agree that Kirk Cousins was a mess last season, right?
We can agree that this team had as many target threats last season as this, right?
Poor QB play and strong usage competition aren’t usually a winning formula for a fringe player like Pitts, yet there was a month window (Weeks 5-8) during which he was the third highest-scoring tight end on a per-game basis.
Over that run, Pitts averaged 5.3 catches per game and reached 65 receiving yards in all four games. In fact, he averaged more PPG during that spurt than Trey McBride (Pitts’ 16.1 to McBride’s 15.1), a consensus Tier 1 option at the position this season.
Much of the data around Pitts up to this point needs to be thrown out because of the change under center, but the raw talent is still worthy of our attention. In 2024, he ran 71 routes with Michael Penix Jr. at QB and caught seven of 10 targets for 66 yards with a score. That’s a start.
The catch on Pitts is his standing in terms of public perception. Due to his early peak and the general growth of the TE position, he’s being deprioritized. As things stand now, he’s not considered a top-15 tight end, and if we are talking streamers at the position, good luck entering the season with a player with a better best-case scenario.
All of the risk has been sucked out of this profile, and that changes the math from years past. Atlanta opens the season with Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, and Washington before their Week 5 bye, a run of defensive schemes that don’t generally scare me when it comes to projecting Pitts.
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The early bye week is a beautiful thing as it allows you to take a test drive of the 2025 model of Pitts. Like what you see through September? Great, stream your way with one of the 10 viable options in Week 5 and be on your way. Discouraged? His draft capital doesn’t require you to give him a long leash, and you can move on without feeling too bad about wasting a pick.
The third pass catcher role in this offense is begging for Pitts to assume it, and as a part of a unit with two high-end skill players, cheap exposure to this scoring environment passes the smell test for me.
Dan Fornek’s Kyle Pitts Fantasy Projection
Kyle Pitts was meant to be the next great receiving threat at tight end due to his size (6-foot-6, 245 pounds) and elite athleticism (4.49 40-yard dash). His rookie season (110 targets, 68 receptions, 1,026 yards, and a touchdown) yielded a TE11 finish in fantasy (10.4 PPG). Unfortunately, a 2022 knee injury has stymied his growth.
Over the last three seasons, Pitts has averaged just 74.3 targets, 42.7 receptions, 541.7 receiving yards, and scored nine touchdowns. He hasn’t finished higher than the TE16 in PPR points per game during that time, frequently splitting time with tight ends who are better blockers. The ability to attack defenses down the field (8.4 average depth of target, TE4) has helped him have spike weeks in fantasy.
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Fantasy managers are getting excited about Pitts once again, thanks to a big-armed quarterback under center (Michael Penix Jr.) and positive buzz emerging from training camp. Given his speed and athletic ability, an increase in target share could help push Pitts over the edge in fantasy. Even through inconsistency, Pitts has finished as a top 24 tight end in each of the last three seasons. Unfortunately, that just doesn’t move the needle in fantasy.
Pitts is a player worth leaving on the waiver wire unless you have a deep enough bench to roster a second tight end, but his early-season production bears close monitoring. If he secures a new role with a larger target share, he should be a priority waiver add quickly.
