Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir was a popular breakout pick last season. With Stefon Diggs gone and the Bills doing nothing to replace him, Shakir was poised to serve as Josh Allen’s top target. He (mostly) delivered, providing a positive return on investment. Can fantasy football managers bank on Shakir continuing to excel in 2025?
Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook
Heading into the 2024 season, Shakir was a former fifth-round pick who averaged 2.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie and 7.1 PPG as a sophomore. Circumstances certainly changed, suggesting a larger role, but I can’t say I was overly bullish on Shakir.
I would classify 12.2 PPG and a WR33 finish as a win, though. Shakir was not drafted to be a starter, but wound up being a weekly WR3, benefitting heavily from the lack of quality receivers on the Bills.
Shakir was able to earn a very respectable 23% target share. More importantly, though, he commanded a target on 28.3% of his routes run. That was the 12th-highest rate in the league.
As primarily a slot receiver, Shakir did not frequently play in two-receiver sets. In fact, he only played 61.3% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, running a route on 75% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Those rates were both well outside the top 60. It goes to show that what a player does when he’s on the field is more important than merely how much he is on the field.
Shakir averaged an impressive 2.33 yards per run, 19th in the league. However, he was incredibly reliant on yards after the catch. Shakir’s aDOT (average depth of target) was a minuscule 5.5, which ranked outside the top 100. But he was second in total yards after the catch.
Just a reminder Khalil Shakir finished 2nd in the NFL last season in YAC
Only behind Ja’Marr Chase#BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/ILyfmNcbhv— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) April 29, 2025
The takeaway here is that Shakir relied heavily on designed targets and made something out of nothing on his short receptions.
Will Shakir Be the Bills’ Top Receiver Once Again?
Conventional wisdom suggested the Bills would look to improve their WR corps. They tried by trading for Amari Cooper last season, which did not work out. Yet, the only move the Bills made this offseason was to sign Joshua Palmer.
Ideally, the Bills would want Keon Coleman to turn into a proper outside receiver. I just don’t think he’s a good enough player. He should still be the guy opposite Palmer in two-receiver sets. But in three-receiver sets, Shakir will absolutely take precedence over Coleman.
Palmer provides healthier target competition for Shakir, but these two could not be more different. Their skill sets do not overlap at all, meaning Palmer’s presence will not negatively impact Shakir’s role.
Expect the Bills to remain a run-first offense and one that features a lot of Allen rushing. But when they throw, Shakir should reprise his role as Allen’s favorite target.
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Shakir’s ADP sits at WR43. That is about where I have him ranked, give or take a couple of spots. However, his training camp high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him until Week 1 or 2 is going to depress his value.
He’s a fine pick at cost and one that is unlikely to fail you. I do see more upside in several players around him. Generally, I prefer to chase upside, especially as we get deeper into drafts. There’s nothing wrong with drafting Shakir. He’s just not the type of player I typically gravitate toward. Nevertheless, if the injury pushes his cost down even further, I will have no choice but to scoop up the value.
Dan Fornek’s Khalil Shakir Fantasy Projection
Khalil Shakir was a minor part of the Bills’ offenses during the first two seasons of his career, catching just 49 passes for 777 yards and three touchdowns while operating behind Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the passing attack. Diggs and Davis were no longer with the team in 2024, allowing Shakir to expand his role. He made the most of it.
The third-year receiver led Buffalo in targets (100), receptions (76) and receiving yards (821) in 2024 while finishing tied for second in touchdowns (4). More importantly, Shakir established that he could earn targets out of the slot (28.3% target rate, WR12) and make plays with the ball in his hands (597 yards after catch, WR2). He ultimately finished as the WR33 in PPR points per game (12.2), thanks to an offense that distributed targets evenly to many weapons.
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Buffalo refrained from making major additions to the passing attack this offseason, adding other role players like Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore. That gives Shakir a chance to replicate his strong 2024 performance as long as he can continue to hold off second-year receiver Keon Coleman in the passing attack. Unfortunately, a training camp high ankle sprain will impact him early in the season, costing him valuable reps with a new supporting cast.
Given how the Bills’ offense is designed to control games with the run and spread the game out in the passing attack, it is hard to rank Shakir higher than WR30 in fantasy. He will have a role (with spike weeks), but there isn’t enough volume to consistently push him higher.
