Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir was a popular breakout pick last season. With Stefon Diggs gone and the Bills doing nothing to replace him, Shakir was poised to serve as Josh Allen’s top target. He (mostly) delivered, providing a positive return on investment. Can fantasy football managers bank on Shakir continuing to excel in 2025?
Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook
Heading into the 2024 season, Shakir was a former fifth-round pick who averaged 2.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie and 7.1 PPG as a sophomore. Circumstances certainly changed, suggesting a larger role, but I can’t say I was overly bullish on Shakir.
I would classify 12.2 PPG and a WR33 finish as a win, though. Shakir was not drafted to be a starter, but wound up being a weekly WR3, benefitting heavily from the lack of quality receivers on the Bills.
Shakir was able to earn a very respectable 23% target share. More importantly, though, he commanded a target on 28.3% of his routes run. That was the 12th-highest rate in the league.
As primarily a slot receiver, Shakir did not frequently play in two-receiver sets. In fact, he only played 61.3% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, running a route on 75% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Those rates were both well outside the top 60. It goes to show that what a player does when he’s on the field is more important than merely how much he is on the field.
Shakir averaged an impressive 2.33 yards per run, 19th in the league. However, he was incredibly reliant on yards after the catch. Shakir’s aDOT (average depth of target) was a minuscule 5.5, which ranked outside the top 100. But he was second in total yards after the catch.
Just a reminder Khalil Shakir finished 2nd in the NFL last season in YAC
Only behind Ja’Marr Chase#BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/ILyfmNcbhv— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) April 29, 2025
The takeaway here is that Shakir relied heavily on designed targets and made something out of nothing on his short receptions.
Will Shakir Be the Bills’ Top Receiver Once Again?
Conventional wisdom suggested the Bills would look to improve their WR corps. They tried by trading for Amari Cooper last season, which did not work out. Yet, the only move the Bills made this offseason was to sign Joshua Palmer.
Ideally, the Bills would want Keon Coleman to turn into a proper outside receiver. I just don’t think he’s a good enough player. He should still be the guy opposite Palmer in two-receiver sets. But in three-receiver sets, Shakir will absolutely take precedence over Coleman.
Palmer provides healthier target competition for Shakir, but these two could not be more different. Their skill sets do not overlap at all, meaning Palmer’s presence will not negatively impact Shakir’s role.
Expect the Bills to remain a run-first offense and one that features a lot of Allen rushing. But when they throw, Shakir should reprise his role as Allen’s favorite target.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Shakir’s ADP sits at WR43. That is about where I have him ranked, give or take a couple of spots. However, his training camp high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him until Week 1 or 2 is going to depress his value.
He’s a fine pick at cost and one that is unlikely to fail you. I do see more upside in several players around him. Generally, I prefer to chase upside, especially as we get deeper into drafts. There’s nothing wrong with drafting Shakir. He’s just not the type of player I typically gravitate toward. Nevertheless, if the injury pushes his cost down even further, I will have no choice but to scoop up the value.
Mason LeBeau‘s Khalil Shakir Fantasy Projection
I’m afraid the Khalil Shakir hype train has moved on. Still only 25 and entering his fourth season, plenty are still holding out hope for a post-hype breakout, but I’m personally not betting on it. While everyone would want QB Josh Allen’s top target, the Bills have an offense where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.Â
Shakir had a solid 2024 following the departure of WR Stefon Diggs, earning 100 targets for 76 receptions, 821 yards, and four touchdowns. That’s reasonable production and a solid step up from 2023, but it’s not enough to move the fantasy needle. He’d need a similar production bump for a true breakout, but he’s been nursing a high-ankle sprain in camp, and is competing in a deep receiver room with Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, and Curtis Samuel.Â
I just don’t believe the touchdown production will be there. The red zone is where Josh Allen lives, and when he’s not, it’s James Cook. Shakir fills a nice role in this offense as a chain-mover and YAC guy, but I don’t think his profile offers enough floor or ceiling at his current ADP.Â
