Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman was the 33rd overall pick in 2024 after an impressive two-year collegiate spurt at two different schools, during which he scored on 16.7% of his receptions. Coleman’s athleticism and size are evident, while the opportunity potential remains high in a Bills offense that we expect to be productive again.
We are looking at a low-risk, high-reward player in the middle rounds, and sharp fantasy football managers make that type of bet every chance they get.
Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Outlook
The Bills tried to bring in Amari Cooper last season, and it didn’t work.
The Bills have brought in Josh Palmer this offseason, and expectations are minimal.
We know that Buffalo will put points on the board, and they are bought into Coleman, something that doesn’t evaporate because of one underwhelming season (29 catches on a 50.9% catch rate in 2024).
Sometimes it really is that simple. The physical tools are in place (6’4”, 215 pounds), and there isn’t much standing in his way from taking a big step forward in his sophomore campaign.
Sorry, continuing to take steps forward.
You may not have realized it because the production was limited, but Coleman’s profile after getting acclimated to the professional game was encouraging.
Week 7-18, among the 94 WRs with 30+ targets
- 18th in end zone target per game
- 6th in YAC (yards after catch per reception)
- 5th in aDOT (average depth of target)
We saw Josh Allen mature last season in terms of his deep throw (1.6% interception rate on balls thrown 15+ yards, much improved from his prior career rate of 5.5%). With a full season to connect with Coleman, not to mention another offseason with little real investment in other options at the position, the path to a ceiling season is reasonably clear.
Over the past decade, A.J. Brown (WR8 over the past three seasons, producing more with his target diet than any of the players ahead of him) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (two top-24 seasons on his resume including a top-10 year in 2018, his second season) are the only two receivers drafted outside of the first round who had more 45+ yard catches during their rookie season than Coleman.
Big plays can come and go, but athleticism, in your early 20s, isn’t something that disappears, and it’s clear that Buffalo’s deep threat has that in spades.
Keon Coleman dropped 60 PTS in a celebrity game 😮💨
Best NFL hooper?
(via @prospectmedia_) pic.twitter.com/BjbojEPt7F
— Overtime (@overtime) June 15, 2025
Coleman is coming off boards in the pick No. 100 range, a nice spot to access his ceiling without risking a lost fantasy season should he not make a big leap in his second season.
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Could he out-produce a player like Calvin Ridley or Rome Odunze, receivers going 40+ picks earlier with far less certainty at the quarterback position? I’m not projecting it, but the potential is definitely there, and when you take into account the draft capital required, there is a very clear value argument to be made.
When I’m throwing darts that I’m not counting on as a weekly starter entering the season, I love the idea of getting cheap exposure to a stable offense, and the Buffalo receiver room is a good place to mine for that.
Frank Ammirante’s Keon Coleman Fantasy Projection
Keon Coleman had a disappointing rookie season, catching 29-of-57 targets for 556 yards and four touchdowns. This looks like more of a boom-or-bust deep threat than the type of wideout that can earn targets at a high volume. While there’s opportunity to emerge as the top wideout for Josh Allen, it’s more likely that we continue to see a committee approach between Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Joshua Palmer.
I’d rather just wait a few rounds and go with Palmer, who is reportedly having a great camp in his first year in Buffalo. Regardless, I understand the appeal with Coleman. This is a big target with second round draft capital, who can win downfield and make impressive contested catches.
There’s a path for him to emerge as the primary red zone threat and catch 8-plus touchdowns. I’d just rather go with other wideouts at his ADP, such as Michael Pittman Jr.
