Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman was the 33rd overall pick in 2024 after an impressive two-year collegiate spurt at two different schools, during which he scored on 16.7% of his receptions. Coleman’s athleticism and size are evident, while the opportunity potential remains high in a Bills offense that we expect to be productive again.
We are looking at a low-risk, high-reward player in the middle rounds, and sharp fantasy football managers make that type of bet every chance they get.
Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Outlook
The Bills tried to bring in Amari Cooper last season, and it didn’t work.
The Bills have brought in Josh Palmer this offseason, and expectations are minimal.
We know that Buffalo will put points on the board, and they are bought into Coleman, something that doesn’t evaporate because of one underwhelming season (29 catches on a 50.9% catch rate in 2024).
Sometimes it really is that simple. The physical tools are in place (6’4”, 215 pounds), and there isn’t much standing in his way from taking a big step forward in his sophomore campaign.
Sorry, continuing to take steps forward.
You may not have realized it because the production was limited, but Coleman’s profile after getting acclimated to the professional game was encouraging.
Week 7-18, among the 94 WRs with 30+ targets
- 18th in end zone target per game
- 6th in YAC (yards after catch per reception)
- 5th in aDOT (average depth of target)
We saw Josh Allen mature last season in terms of his deep throw (1.6% interception rate on balls thrown 15+ yards, much improved from his prior career rate of 5.5%). With a full season to connect with Coleman, not to mention another offseason with little real investment in other options at the position, the path to a ceiling season is reasonably clear.
Over the past decade, A.J. Brown (WR8 over the past three seasons, producing more with his target diet than any of the players ahead of him) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (two top-24 seasons on his resume including a top-10 year in 2018, his second season) are the only two receivers drafted outside of the first round who had more 45+ yard catches during their rookie season than Coleman.
Big plays can come and go, but athleticism, in your early 20s, isn’t something that disappears, and it’s clear that Buffalo’s deep threat has that in spades.
Keon Coleman dropped 60 PTS in a celebrity game 😮💨
Best NFL hooper?
(via @prospectmedia_) pic.twitter.com/BjbojEPt7F
— Overtime (@overtime) June 15, 2025
Coleman is coming off boards in the pick No. 100 range, a nice spot to access his ceiling without risking a lost fantasy season should he not make a big leap in his second season.
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Could he out-produce a player like Calvin Ridley or Rome Odunze, receivers going 40+ picks earlier with far less certainty at the quarterback position? I’m not projecting it, but the potential is definitely there, and when you take into account the draft capital required, there is a very clear value argument to be made.
When I’m throwing darts that I’m not counting on as a weekly starter entering the season, I love the idea of getting cheap exposure to a stable offense, and the Buffalo receiver room is a good place to mine for that.
Dan Fornek’s Keon Coleman Fantasy Projection
There was plenty of hope that Keon Coleman, the Bills’ 2024 second-round pick, could fill the void of Stefon Diggs in 2024. Coleman was coming off a strong 2023 season with Florida State, catching 50 of 90 targets for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns, frequently winning downfield in contested catch situations.
Instead, a wrist injury cost him four games and limited his productivity throughout his first season. Coleman caught just 29 of 57 targets for 556 yards and four touchdowns. The downfield playmaking was clear, evidenced by his 15.2 average depth of target (WR8) and his 19.2 yards per reception (WR4), but drops (5) and inconsistency winning in contested catch situations (23.5%, WR95) hampered his ability to contribute. Coleman finished as the WR55 in PPR points per game (8.6) in his first year.
Coleman has continued to show flashes throughout the summer, but has also continued to struggle with drops and consistency day over day. Undoubtedly, he will have a role in Buffalo’s passing attack, but he will have to show much more consistency as a pass catcher to earn targets with a quarterback (Josh Allen) who has no problem spreading the ball around.
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If Coleman can earn Allen’s trust, he is the most talented receiver on the Bills’ depth chart at wide receiver. There is also a chance he can emerge as the team’s primary red zone threat due to his size and catch radius, but that seems unlikely given how efficient Buffalo’s rushing attack is when the field shortens.
In 2025, Coleman is a worthwhile bench stash in fantasy in case he can emerge as a target earner on a team that features numerous complementary pieces at wide receiver. However, his struggles securing the football make him a boom-or-bust wide receiver to start 2025. He cannot be trusted in fantasy lineups until he shows more consistency.
