The curious case of Kenneth Walker III continued through his third NFL season, as his yards per carry continued to dip while his role in the passing game exploded, leaving fantasy football managers conflicted as to what to think about the 24-year-old.
Is he a budding superstar, or are the Seattle Seahawks still trying to figure out how to best use him and thus capping his potential?
Kenneth Walker III’s Fantasy Outlook
When Walker burst onto the scene, he looked like the type who could overcome some offensive flaws around him and potentially explode if all of the pieces around him fell into place.
Now that we are three years (42 games) into his career, it’s very fair to question that evaluation and even wonder if we are chasing production that simply might never come.
Kenneth Walker lol pic.twitter.com/w1VqoCl34Y
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025
Situation plays as much a part of running back value as any position in our game, and the limitations of this offense in past years have proven to be prohibitive.
Walker Rushing Splits By Season
- 2022: 43.9% of carries against a loaded box, 1.45 YPC before contact
- 2023: 43.4% of carries against a loaded box, 1.20 YPC before contact
- 2024: 33.3% of carries against a loaded box, 0.69 YPC before contact
Defenses have been paying less attention to the Seattle running game, and yet, they are still getting their hands on the lead back close to the line of scrimmage. Both Zach Charbonnet and Walker rank in the 16th percentile or lower in rush gain rate since they joined forces in 2023 (Alexander Mattison and Jerome Ford are other names also on that list).
You could argue that the shifts to this roster result in more upside. Sam Darnold was a revelation last season, and if he commands that sort of defensive attention, running lanes are naturally going to open up.
That said, Walker hasn’t been maximizing his opportunities (percentage of points gained relative to expectations has dipped down in each season), and that brings into question if his ceiling is actually as high as your mind thinks. He’s a boom-bust runner, but the boom has been less prevalent (12.7% of carries in 2022 gained 10+ yards, a rate that dipped to 11% in 2023, and 8.5% in 2024), and Walker has to wear some of the blame for that.
When push comes to shove, determining if Walker is worthy of a top-50 overall pick, his general range per our FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator, has as much to do with your managing style and risk tolerance as anything.
There will likely be a few weeks this season where he is a pivotal piece in a victory for you. That’s great, and if you trust yourself to navigate the otherwise bumpy waters when it comes to per-game fantasy production, he’s a fine pick in the neighborhood in which he’s being selected.
As you can see, however, the ceiling games come with a price. Personally, I draft for stability more often than not at the running back position and prefer to layer in upside elsewhere.
Going after Walker with regularity are boring names like James Conner, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift. “Boring”, yes, but the range of weekly outcomes is much more narrow, and that’s the type of profile I tend to land on.
Scouting players is obviously important, but it means nothing if you aren’t self-aware in terms of the builds that best fit you. If you don’t mind riding the waves, Walker might actually be the perfect fit for you. He’s a young back on an offense with some upside and projects for safe volume. If you prefer to let other players hold the fate of your season in your hands, pass on Walker in favor of a higher floor option and roll the dice elsewhere.
Dan Fornek’s Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Projection
From a pure talent standpoint, Kenneth Walker III might be one of the best running backs in the NFL. Since being drafted in 2022, he has averaged 200 carries for 842.7 yards and 8.0 touchdowns per season behind a bad Seattle offensive line. He’s also coming off a career-best year in the pass game, setting career-highs in targets (53), receptions (46), receiving yards (299), and receiving touchdowns (1).
Walker has never finished below the RB20 in PPR points per game and is coming off the best finish of his career (RB12, 16.5 PPG).
The issue with Walker is his inability to stay healthy. He missed two games in 2022 and 2023 before missing six in 2024. None of his injuries have been major, but his history of soft tissue (groin and calf specifically) and ankle injuries has done enough to consistently cost him games.
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If Walker can stay healthy in 2025, he is poised to have his best season yet. The Seahawks’ offensive line is far from good, but new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has a zone-heavy rushing philosophy that should help minimize their impact in the run game. He’s also shown a willingness to involve running backs in the passing attack throughout his limited coaching career.
Walker has already missed part of the summer due to a lingering ankle injury, but there hasn’t been any indication that it will cost him games to start the season. That said, it is another minor injury for a player with a history of minor injuries. The 24-year-old is capable of providing RB1 weeks in fantasy, but you have to anticipate needing to find an injury fill-in throughout the season if he’s on your roster.
