The curious case of Kenneth Walker III continued through his third NFL season, as his yards per carry continued to dip while his role in the passing game exploded, leaving fantasy football managers conflicted as to what to think about the 24-year-old.
Is he a budding superstar, or are the Seattle Seahawks still trying to figure out how to best use him and thus capping his potential?
Kenneth Walker III’s Fantasy Outlook
When Walker burst onto the scene, he looked like the type who could overcome some offensive flaws around him and potentially explode if all of the pieces around him fell into place.
Now that we are three years (42 games) into his career, it’s very fair to question that evaluation and even wonder if we are chasing production that simply might never come.
Kenneth Walker lol pic.twitter.com/w1VqoCl34Y
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025
Situation plays as much a part of running back value as any position in our game, and the limitations of this offense in past years have proven to be prohibitive.
Walker Rushing Splits By Season
- 2022: 43.9% of carries against a loaded box, 1.45 YPC before contact
- 2023: 43.4% of carries against a loaded box, 1.20 YPC before contact
- 2024: 33.3% of carries against a loaded box, 0.69 YPC before contact
Defenses have been paying less attention to the Seattle running game, and yet, they are still getting their hands on the lead back close to the line of scrimmage. Both Zach Charbonnet and Walker rank in the 16th percentile or lower in rush gain rate since they joined forces in 2023 (Alexander Mattison and Jerome Ford are other names also on that list).
You could argue that the shifts to this roster result in more upside. Sam Darnold was a revelation last season, and if he commands that sort of defensive attention, running lanes are naturally going to open up.
That said, Walker hasn’t been maximizing his opportunities (percentage of points gained relative to expectations has dipped down in each season), and that brings into question if his ceiling is actually as high as your mind thinks. He’s a boom-bust runner, but the boom has been less prevalent (12.7% of carries in 2022 gained 10+ yards, a rate that dipped to 11% in 2023, and 8.5% in 2024), and Walker has to wear some of the blame for that.
When push comes to shove, determining if Walker is worthy of a top-50 overall pick, his general range per our FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator, has as much to do with your managing style and risk tolerance as anything.
There will likely be a few weeks this season where he is a pivotal piece in a victory for you. That’s great, and if you trust yourself to navigate the otherwise bumpy waters when it comes to per-game fantasy production, he’s a fine pick in the neighborhood in which he’s being selected.
As you can see, however, the ceiling games come with a price. Personally, I draft for stability more often than not at the running back position and prefer to layer in upside elsewhere.
Going after Walker with regularity are boring names like James Conner, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift. “Boring”, yes, but the range of weekly outcomes is much more narrow, and that’s the type of profile I tend to land on.
Scouting players is obviously important, but it means nothing if you aren’t self-aware in terms of the builds that best fit you. If you don’t mind riding the waves, Walker might actually be the perfect fit for you. He’s a young back on an offense with some upside and projects for safe volume. If you prefer to let other players hold the fate of your season in your hands, pass on Walker in favor of a higher floor option and roll the dice elsewhere.
Mason LeBeau’s Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Projection
Kenneth Walker III is a scary prospect. What makes matters worse is that after a down, injury-riddled 2024, he won’t be any cheaper in 2025. According to FantasyPros, Walker’s average ADP last August was 43rd overall as the RB16, but fast forward to now, and it’s nearly identical, 44th overall and RB15.
Typically, a bad season that left managers burned would drop a player’s stock. Yet, Walker’s youth and explosive profile are so enticing that the fantasy community is still willing to take a shot on him with a mid-round draft pick.
It’s easy to understand why. The Seahawks’ fancy new zone-heavy run scheme from offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has historically been good for running backs. Walker tends to struggle with his vision, which was compounded by a poor offensive line and scheme, but the zone blocking scheme tends to make the decision-making for backs a little easier.
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If Walker can continue to increase his receiving profile and rip off a few more explosives, he could easily outproduce his ADP. However, he has yet to have a strong enough season to suggest he has this ceiling we’ve dreamt of for him. Even expanding his stats from 2024, Walker has barely crept over the 1,000-yard rushing mark.
He can make up for some of that with touchdowns, but their other young running back, Zach Charbonnet, will get his share of those too — especially in short-yardage situations. That’s before we get to any of the injury issues that Walker has been dealing with.
For me to be comfortable, I had been hoping his ADP would take a decent dip from last year. His youth and explosion certainly make him a fun bet to place, so if you believe this offense and line can take a step up with QB Sam Darnold and OC Klint Kubiak, then Walker stands to be the beneficiary and could have a breakout year. If you aren’t sold like me, he’s a tad too risky for the draft capital.
