This is it, folks. The last professional football game that counts for seven months. We could get the most boring, predictable game imaginable. We could also get a wild one with twists and turns no one expected.
For one last time, let’s have some fun. Here are a couple of bold predictions that could happen in Super Bowl 60. Fantasy football managers will want to stay tuned.
Kenneth Walker III Receiving Yards Prediction: More Than Rushing
Kenneth Walker III has always been capable of catching passes. But he’s never been a pass-catching back. All season, he was regularly pulled on passing downs for Zach Charbonnet. He only saw a 7.9% target share. Unsurprisingly, there hasn’t been a single game all season where Walker’s receiving yardage total surpassed his rushing yards. Here’s why it just might happen in the Super Bowl.
The New England Patriots are an elite run defense. They allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season. As a result, they faced a target share of over 20% to running backs. Teams attacked this defense and “ran” the ball with more designed passes to backs, as opposed to straight handoffs.
Walker has seen an uptick in usage as a receiver lately. He has 114 receiving yards over his last three games. That ticks up to 184 over his last five. Walker now sees at least a couple of pass plays specifically designed to him each game, usually in the first quarter. All it would take is one well-blocked screen to go for a big gain, and this has a shot to hit.
Drake Maye Super Bowl Rushing Yards: Can He Lead the Game?
It’s the Super Bowl. There’s no more protecting players or holding back plays. It’s all or nothing. Every player and coach is going to put everything on the line and pull out every stop to try and win this game.
Drake Maye is not a rushing quarterback in the mold of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. But he can run. And he’s done it more than ever in the postseason.
Maye’s two highest single-game rushing totals have come in the postseason. He ran for 66 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers and 65 yards against the Denver Broncos. He eclipsed 60 yards just once in the regular season.
Both of these teams have very good run defenses. I discussed above why I think Walker might struggle on the ground. Likely negative game script and Seattle’s elite run-stopping unit should limit Rhamondre Stevenson’s volume and effectiveness. TreVeyon Henderson is not part of the offense (he played four snaps in the AFC Championship Game).
I’m expecting 40-plus dropbacks for Maye. That presents a lot of opportunities for not only designed runs but scrambles as well.
Seattle Seahawks Defense Turnover Prediction: Three or More
Seattle was sixth in the league this season with 25 takeaways. This is a very well-coached and aggressive defense that is going to put Maye under pressure. On the season, Maye only threw eight interceptions, but he also fumbled eight times.
The Seahawks got pressure on the opposing QB on 39.9% of their pass rushes. That was sixth in the league. The Houston Texans and Broncos were second and third, respectively. Maye did not respond well to either.
We got a glimpse of what can happen if a pass rush gets to Maye in the Divisional Round. Even though the Patriots won the game, Maye was under duress the entire way. The Texans sacked Maye five times, picked him off once, and forced four fumbles, recovering two.
If the Patriots fall behind early and have to become one-dimensional, this defense could tee off against a young quarterback that has shown vulnerability when pressured.
