It took almost the entire Summer, but Keenan Allen finally found a home…his old home. Where he grew up. Allen returned to the Los Angeles Chargers, signing a one-year deal in early August. Now that Allen is on a roster, should fantasy football managers target him this season?
Keenan Allen Fantasy Outlook
Allen is one of the best receivers of the modern era. He’s been a fantasy factor for over a decade and posted seven consecutive seasons of 16+ fantasy points per game from 2017-2023.
Amazingly, Allen registered the best season of his career just two years ago, averaging 21.5 PPG. Throughout his entire career, I noted he had a skill set that would age well. That has come to fruition as Allen still remained effective even at his age-32 season.
With that said, there’s no denying Allen declined considerably in 2024. He averaged a career-worst 12.4 PPG. Allen was still fantasy relevant, finishing as a mid-WR3, but he wasn’t the low-WR1 he’s been for most of his Hall of Fame career.
f**k it, all 10,000 receiving yards in keenan’s career pic.twitter.com/n3mROtvqSZ
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 16, 2023
Now 33 years old, Allen is at an age where we see very few quality fantasy seasons. Historically, when a wide receiver shows signs of decline, he doesn’t suddenly rebound.
Allen still has something to offer the Chargers. He’s never been fast or athletic. He wins because he’s an incredible route runner and has an elite football IQ, a knack for finding holes in coverage. But should we expect him to suddenly return to form now that he’s another year older and is competing for targets with one of the best young receivers in the NFL? Probably not.
You know the phrase, “A rising tide lifts all ships.” Well, Allen certainly suffered from the opposite last season in Chicago. Caleb Williams was incredibly disappointing, and the offense was boring, uncreative, and run by guys who shouldn’t be in charge of NFL offenses. In Los Angeles, things will be better. However, it’s hard to ignore Allen’s performance last season.
The veteran receiver averaged 1.52 yards per route run, 67th in the league. His 6.1 yards per target was 97th. You can find separation metrics that indicate Allen could still get open, but if he was getting open, why wasn’t he producing? Sure, we can blame the offense or the quarterback, but it’s far riskier to assume the player didn’t decline when he’s now 33 years old.
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There’s a spot for Allen on fantasy benches, but only in specific roster constructions where you took riskier early-round players. Allen has no chance at being the Chargers’ top target. He is not a threat to Ladd McConkey. In the best case, for him, he will play mainly in the slot and push McConkey more to the outside.
I expect that Allen won’t be an every-down player. He will be second on the team in WR snaps, but he will rotate more with Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris than a younger Allen would.
Allen still deserves to be selected in fantasy drafts. There’s no sense in discussing his ADP, though, as everything that happened before he signed is meaningless. I ranked him at WR57. He’s a fine floor selection. But his production is likely something you can get on the waiver wire, and there’s certainly no significant upside here. Unless you need him to start, I’d rather take shots on higher upside players.
Mason LeBeau‘s Keenan Allen Fantasy Projection
Back from the dead, Keenan Allen finds himself surprisingly fantasy relevant after spending most of camp as a free agent. Reunited with the Chargers, he could see a solid workload pretty early on.Â
Going at the bottom of drafts as WR56, he is still barely being selected. Understandably, he doesn’t boast a strong ceiling, so I wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to add him. However, I don’t think Allen is entirely washed yet, earning 121 targets in a crowded room for the Bears last year. He’ll still be behind WR Ladd McConkey, much like he was behind DJ Moore, but I’m even less threatened by WRs Tre’ Harris than Rome Odunze. That leaves him to likely be a clear WR2 for Justin Herbert.
His value for what his role should be is quite good. If he has a few vintage games in him, he could even be a steal early on in the season. That said, I’d only target him if you went light on WRs throughout the draft and need some guaranteed production. Otherwise, stick with upside bets you can more easily move on from if they don’t pan out.
