The college game really had no answer for Kaleb Johnson in 2024, and that landed him in what profiles as a favorable fantasy spot in Pittsburgh with Najee Harris taking his talents to Los Angeles.
Should managers feel comfortable in counting on the third-round rookie as a weekly lineup staple from the jump?
Kaleb Johnson Fantasy Outlook
Not once, not twice, not three times, but four times a season ago did Johnson gash an opposing defense for north of 170 rushing yards and multiple scores on the ground. He’s got the size profile of someone who will be handling significant work in this league for years to come, and his decisive running nature allows him to maximize every carry. This trait should play well at the professional level.
Arthur Smith does #TheMath.
In terms of designed carries, we currently at:
* Kaleb Johnson 46%
* Jaylen Warren 35%
* Kenneth Gainwell 10%
* Cordarrelle Patterson 7%
* Calvin Austin 2% pic.twitter.com/ETLh47mdXZ— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) June 17, 2025
Now that I mention it, haven’t we seen this before?
Najee Harris College Profile
- Height: 6’1”
- Career: 6.0 yards per carry
- Final Season: 19.3 carries per game with 26 rushing TDs in 13 games
Kaleb Johnson College Profile
- Height: 6’1”
- Career: 5.9 yards per carry
- Final Season: 20 carries per game with 21 rushing TDs in 12 games
Agree with their evaluation or not, it would seem that the Steelers are content with pigeon-holing Jaylen Warren, something that should be music to the ears of those looking to invest a 6th-7th round pick on Johnson (pick range per our Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator: D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, and Quinshon Judkins).
Warren has never handled more than 15 carries in an NFL game and has been capped at single digits in 75% of contests. Nothing is glaring to fear from a skill set point of view when it comes to evaluating Johnson, and the role very much seems to be his to lose entering his rookie campaign.
His slide on draft night was notable, but the great Ian Cummings remains sold: “He’s a rare mix of power and agility, like a pitcher with both a plus fastball and a plus changeup. Whether breaking tackles or outrunning defenders, Johnson consistently shines against elite competition.”
If we are getting a fresher version of Harris in an offense that could be a little more productive than years past, there’s a pretty clean path to him returning RB2 value, a result that would be a nice profit at his cost.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
The thread I’m most interested in pulling here is how Johnson can be a success in his success. The cliche is that some options can be a “victim of their own success,” Warren being a decent example as he’s thrived in his role, so why change it?
Johnson could be a success, given the pretty correlated push/pull dynamic at play with Rodgers under center. While the future Hall of Famer has declined in most areas, he was just as potent last season as you’d expect when the offense was operating from well ahead of the chains.
Rodgers Passer Rating, 3 or Fewer Yards To The Chains
- 2024: 114.2
- Career Prior: 115.4
That’s obviously a very cherry-picked example, but the point remains that Rodgers is still capable of leading a productive offense when his team is on schedule. Pittsburgh was the fourth run-heaviest offense in 2024 when the score was within a single possession. If Johnson allows them to function that way, there’s a world in which this is an above-scoring offense, something that could elevate the rookie into lineup lock status before long.
This profile looks to me as one that has far more paths to greatness than to failure, and that’s the type of investment I enjoy making in all walks of life!
Dan Fornek’s Kaleb Johnson Fantasy Projection
Kaleb Johnson was the focal point of Iowa’s offense in 2024. The running back finished fourth in the nation in rushing with 240 carries for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns. Johnson was third in the running back class in yards after contact (1,060) and 10+ yard rushes (43), and was eighth in missed tackles forced 66.
Johnson’s patient and deliberate rushing style was the perfect fit for a zone blocking scheme, which was reinforced by the fact that 79.5% of Johnson’s runs in 2024 came in zone schemes. His combine performance (6-foot-1, 224 pounds with a 4.57 40-yard dash) confirmed he would need a very specific fit at the NFL level. Thankfully, he got it when he was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third round of the NFL Draft.
Pittsburgh ran the third most inside zone (37.9%) and the ninth most outside zone (24.6%) with Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator in 2024. Johnson is the perfect fit for their system and has the size to handle the 250+ carries vacated by Najee Harris in free agency. Both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell will take away touches (especially in the pass game), but the backfield workload should be dominated by Johnson in his first year.
Johnson is a talented runner and could get the kind of volume role that leads to RB2 finishes in fantasy. However, the presence of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback could also lead to fewer rushes in 2025. He’s a worthwhile pick, especially given how well he fits the Steelers’ offensive scheme.
