Justin Herbert started his career posting back-to-back elite QB1 seasons. Since then, he’s been stuck in offenses that do not cater to his gunslinger nature. Will the 2025 Los Angeles Chargers allow Herbert to be the fantasy football star we know he’s capable of being?
Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook
It’s impossible to even compare Herbert’s first two seasons to his last three. After averaging 22.9 and 23.3 fantasy points per game to start his career, Herbert hasn’t gotten above 18.6 PPG since. Last year, Herbert averaged a career-low 17.0 points per game.
Given the way Herbert started his career, as well as his obvious talent, fantasy managers seem to be waiting for the switch to flip back to being an elite fantasy QB. For a moment, we thought it was happening last season.
From Weeks 8 to 11, Herbert averaged 21.95 PPG. That’s the Herbert we remember from his rookie and sophomore seasons. It’s also a reminder that Herbert still has this in him. In the right offensive environment, Herbert can still be a 20+ PPG elite QB1. The question is whether that environment can exist on the Jim Harbaugh Chargers.
Justin Herbert over the past three seasons:
66.7 CMP%
68 TD
18 INTOne of two QBs with those numbers or better in that span. pic.twitter.com/bObdbs0PAL
— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) May 26, 2025
Last season, the Chargers weren’t as run-heavy as you might think. They had a 56% neutral game script pass rate, which was 15th in the league. Yet, Herbert only averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game.
By way of comparison, Herbert did not average below 39 attempts per game across his first three seasons. That number fell to 35 per game in 2023. But under 30? For Justin Herbert? That’s obscene. So, how did it happen?
Under Harbaugh, the Chargers play slooooooow. They were the slowest team in the league in neutral game script, averaging 30.7 seconds per snap. That was 0.4 seconds slower than the next slowest team, and a staggering 4.0 seconds behind the league’s fastest team.
This year, the Chargers brought in another wide receiver by drafting Tre Harris in the second round. However, they spent a first rounder on Omarion Hampton. We are likely to have a slow-paced, run-focused team once again.
The 2024 Chargers earned a B- grade in PFN’s Defense+ metric. This is likely to be an above-average to good defense. That does not bode well for Herbert slinging it all over the field.
There will inevitably be games where Herbert has to be a hero. His weekly fantasy upside remains as high as anyone’s. That’s especially so as he incorporates more scrambling into his game. Last season, Herbert set a career high with 18.0 rushing yards per game. But I would stop short of calling him a rushing QB.
There’s simply no way Herbert can reliably reach 20 fantasy points without throwing at least 30 touchdowns. His high over the past three seasons is 25.
In 2024, the Chargers ran the ball 60.4% of the time in goal-to-go situations. That was the eighth-highest rate in the league. Their overall red zone pass rate was just 47.1%.
Since the Chargers remain a good team unlikely to find themselves chasing on the scoreboard too frequently, they will have the privilege of running their offense. That offense involves not asking Herbert to be a hero every week. Therefore, his fantasy upside remains capped.
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Herbert has a QB13 ADP, a mark he failed to reach in two of the past three seasons. I have Herbert ranked as my QB16.
As much as I love the talent, Herbert isn’t likely enough to reach his ceiling outcome to justify taking him over some of the more mobile QBs, or the late-round pocket passers with more favorable fantasy environments like Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. I don’t anticipate rostering any Herbert this season.
Dan Fornek’s Justin Herbert Fantasy Projection
It is easy to forget that Justin Herbert started his career with two straight top-10 quarterback finishes in fantasy football while averaging over 22.0 points per game. Since then, Herbert has averaged just 17.1 PPG in the last three seasons and has finished above the QB13 just one time.
Herbert has remained efficient as a passer, averaging a 66.7% completion rate with 3,914 yards, 23 touchdowns, and seven interceptions since 2022. Herbert finished the 2024 season fifth among quarterbacks in 20+ yard throws (66) and sixth in explosive pass plays (56), yet struggled to score fantasy points thanks to attempting the 17th most red zone attempts (60).
Unfortunately, there isn’t much reason to believe Herbert’s offensive production will change largely under head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Los Angeles’s backfield in 2024 consisted of inefficient veteran running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. The Chargers invested in both free agency (Najee Harris) and the draft (first-round pick Omarion Hampton) to bolster their run game.
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Justin Herbert will need to increase his touchdown rate significantly in an offense that has no problem running the football. Unfortunately, that makes it far more likely that Herbert remains a high-end QB2 in fantasy than a top 5 option.
