Justin Herbert started his career posting back-to-back elite QB1 seasons. Since then, he’s been stuck in offenses that do not cater to his gunslinger nature. Will the 2025 Los Angeles Chargers allow Herbert to be the fantasy football star we know he’s capable of being?
Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook
It’s impossible to even compare Herbert’s first two seasons to his last three. After averaging 22.9 and 23.3 fantasy points per game to start his career, Herbert hasn’t gotten above 18.6 PPG since. Last year, Herbert averaged a career-low 17.0 points per game.
Given the way Herbert started his career, as well as his obvious talent, fantasy managers seem to be waiting for the switch to flip back to being an elite fantasy QB. For a moment, we thought it was happening last season.
From Weeks 8 to 11, Herbert averaged 21.95 PPG. That’s the Herbert we remember from his rookie and sophomore seasons. It’s also a reminder that Herbert still has this in him. In the right offensive environment, Herbert can still be a 20+ PPG elite QB1. The question is whether that environment can exist on the Jim Harbaugh Chargers.
Justin Herbert over the past three seasons:
66.7 CMP%
68 TD
18 INTOne of two QBs with those numbers or better in that span. pic.twitter.com/bObdbs0PAL
— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) May 26, 2025
Last season, the Chargers weren’t as run-heavy as you might think. They had a 56% neutral game script pass rate, which was 15th in the league. Yet, Herbert only averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game.
By way of comparison, Herbert did not average below 39 attempts per game across his first three seasons. That number fell to 35 per game in 2023. But under 30? For Justin Herbert? That’s obscene. So, how did it happen?
Under Harbaugh, the Chargers play slooooooow. They were the slowest team in the league in neutral game script, averaging 30.7 seconds per snap. That was 0.4 seconds slower than the next slowest team, and a staggering 4.0 seconds behind the league’s fastest team.
This year, the Chargers brought in another wide receiver by drafting Tre Harris in the second round. However, they spent a first rounder on Omarion Hampton. We are likely to have a slow-paced, run-focused team once again.
The 2024 Chargers earned a B- grade in PFN’s Defense+ metric. This is likely to be an above-average to good defense. That does not bode well for Herbert slinging it all over the field.
There will inevitably be games where Herbert has to be a hero. His weekly fantasy upside remains as high as anyone’s. That’s especially so as he incorporates more scrambling into his game. Last season, Herbert set a career high with 18.0 rushing yards per game. But I would stop short of calling him a rushing QB.
There’s simply no way Herbert can reliably reach 20 fantasy points without throwing at least 30 touchdowns. His high over the past three seasons is 25.
In 2024, the Chargers ran the ball 60.4% of the time in goal-to-go situations. That was the eighth-highest rate in the league. Their overall red zone pass rate was just 47.1%.
Since the Chargers remain a good team unlikely to find themselves chasing on the scoreboard too frequently, they will have the privilege of running their offense. That offense involves not asking Herbert to be a hero every week. Therefore, his fantasy upside remains capped.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Herbert has a QB13 ADP, a mark he failed to reach in two of the past three seasons. I have Herbert ranked as my QB16.
As much as I love the talent, Herbert isn’t likely enough to reach his ceiling outcome to justify taking him over some of the more mobile QBs, or the late-round pocket passers with more favorable fantasy environments like Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. I don’t anticipate rostering any Herbert this season.
Cameron Sheath’s Justin Herbert Fantasy Projection
Every year, there are players whose ADPs make no sense in drafts. This year, Justin Herbert is one such player, currently being taken as the QB15. Herbert has finished outside the top-12 quarterbacks just once in his five NFL seasons, when he missed four games in 2023.
Outside of that injury, Herbert has produced QB1 numbers throughout his career and is still only 27 years old. Looking at his 2024 figures, there is also good reason to expect improvement from Herbert in 2025.
From Weeks 1-9 last season, Herbert averaged 3.38 rush attempts and 14.3 fantasy points per game. From Weeks 10-18, that number rose to 4.6 rush attempts per game, with Herbert averaging 19.3 points.
An improved rushing attack, with Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton joining the team in the offseason, should help facilitate better efficiency for Herbert on the ground. He should also be able to improve on his two rushing touchdowns from 2024, especially if the Chargers decide to implement their own brand of the “Tush Push” this year.
HC Jim Harbaugh should have some inside knowledge on the play after former Eagles guard Mekhi Becton signed in free agency. Herbert has the build to be successful on sneak plays, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him double his 2024 rushing touchdown total at minimum. Either way, Herbert should be considered a screaming value in 2025 drafts.
