While most fantasy managers scroll past Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in drafts, smart PFSN users are quietly snatching him up 2-3 rounds ahead of his industry average draft position, according to our Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator.
The data suggests they might be onto something big that the broader fantasy community is completely missing.
Progressive Development Points to Breakout Season
Herbert’s trajectory tells a compelling story that goes beyond surface-level statistics. His fantasy points per pass attempt rate has climbed in consecutive seasons, showcasing improved efficiency that translates directly to fantasy production.
More intriguingly, the Chargers have systematically unleashed Herbert’s arm strength, with his average depth of target jumping from 6.4 yards three seasons ago to 7.7 yards two seasons back, then spiking to 8.6 yards last season.
This progression reveals an offense evolving from conservative game management to aggressive downfield attacking. While Los Angeles still prioritizes running the football, they rank 23rd in pass play percentage, they’ve demonstrated increasing confidence in Herbert’s ability to deliver when opportunities arise. The result is a quarterback who combines efficiency with explosive upside potential.
Justin Herbert (17) to Ladd McConkey (5)
Los Angeles Chargers
7 yards pic.twitter.com/2EsQgHZIZn— NFL Touchdown Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) December 15, 2024
Context Behind Last Season’s Performance
Herbert finished less than 2.0 fantasy points per game away from cracking the top-8 quarterback producers last season, a remarkable achievement considering the obstacles he faced. In addition to adjusting to a new head coach, his top receiving option was rookie Ladd McConkey learning on the fly, the running game remained inconsistent throughout much of the year, and the offense managed just the 21st-most red zone trips in the league.
Despite these limitations, Herbert maintained fantasy relevance while building chemistry with young weapons and adapting to an offense still finding its identity. Those circumstances created an artificially deflated ceiling that doesn’t reflect his true capabilities moving forward.
Herbert’s blend of elite arm strength, rising efficiency, and an upgraded supporting cast, bolstered by first- and second-round picks Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris, sets the stage for a fantasy breakout. His aggressiveness downfield, paired with an offense that picks its spots to unleash him, makes Herbert a prime candidate to exceed his draft-day value.
Smart fantasy managers recognize that Herbert’s current valuation fails to account for his upward trajectory and improved situation. While others chase household names at premium prices, those willing to dig deeper into the data are positioning themselves to benefit from one of fantasy football’s most compelling value plays at the quarterback position.
