After spending the first four years of his career with the Los Angeles Chargers, wide receiver Joshua Palmer signed with the Buffalo Bills ahead of the 2025 season. Palmer has had fantasy viability spurts but has never been a consistently reliable weekly starter. Does he profile as a solid late-round target for fantasy football managers?
Joshua Palmer Fantasy Outlook
In 2022 and 2023, Palmer averaged 10.6 and 10.7 fantasy points per game, respectively. Last year, he declined to 7.2 PPG.
Palmer was effective filling in whenever Mike Williams or Keenan Allen got hurt in previous years, which was often. However, it was clear the Chargers never viewed him as a starter.
The Chargers spent two premium draft picks on Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey in the past two seasons. With both staying healthy throughout the 2024 season, combined with a shift toward a run-heavy approach, there just wasn’t much opportunity for Palmer.
The Bills want to run the ball as well. However, the opportunity to earn targets in Buffalo should be much greater.
The Bills do not have a receiver anywhere near the level of McConkey. Their top pass catcher is Khalil Shakir, who operates primarily out of the slot. Beyond him, they hope Keon Coleman can emerge as their primary outside receiver, but I don’t think he has the talent to do so. I fully expect Palmer to be their X receiver.
Josh Palmer gives the Bills a much-needed weapon vs. man coverage.
BUF’s Average Separation Score ranks against man among 131 qualifying players:
Josh Palmer: 8th-best
Keon Coleman: 54th
Mack Hollins: 71st
Khalil Shakir: 82nd
Dalton Kincaid: 86th pic.twitter.com/DCVIuTL41K— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 10, 2025
Last season, Shakir led the team with 100 targets. Dalton Kincaid was second with 75, but he played two fewer games. After those two, Allen spread the ball around. Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and Amari Cooper (in his eight games) combined for roughly 37% of the targets.
It goes without saying that Palmer is not about to push anywhere near a 30% target share. But there’s plenty of reason to believe he can get to around 20-22%. We should see many of those targets consolidate around Palmer. He, Shakir, and Kincaid should combine for at least 60% of Allen’s targets.
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Over the past three seasons, in games where Palmer runs at least 30 routes, he’s averaged 12.1 ppg. Is that about to win you leagues or swing matchups? No. But when discussing a player with a WR73 ADP, getting anything helpful is a win. If Palmer can get 11-12 PPG at that price tag, he will be a tremendous value.
I have Palmer ranked as my WR57. Suffice it to say that I am more bullish on him than the market and will aggressively target him in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
Mason LeBeau‘s Joshua Palmer Fantasy Projection
It feels like, for a couple of years now, we’ve been too far on one side or the other with Josh Palmer. Of course, no one has gone out of their way to crown him the next big thing, but he has been a popular sleeper with hopes of becoming a mainstay. However, I think that outcome is pretty unlikely.Â
What you can get from Palmer is a rock-solid piece of a great offense. QB Josh Allen needs to throw it somewhere, and between WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid, and WR Khalil Shakir, there isn’t a standout option. That’s a blessing and a curse for Palmer, because the ball will be spread out unless he can stand out. I wouldn’t bet on that, but he can be a reasonable fill-in.Â
But, there is a smidge of upside here. Before OC Greg Roman in, Palmer managed 769 yards on 72 receptions back in 2022 for the Chargers. If he can put it all together and top those numbers, he’ll be very fantasy relevant. The problem is, I can’t imagine he’ll suddenly become a redzone target. His previous career high of four scores won’t do, and this Bills offense won’t need him in the red zone.Â
Palmer is more likely to be a waiver target early unless you’re in a deep league. For those leagues, he can be a very servicable flex option. For your standard redraft leagues, look elsewhere for upside.
