Veteran running backs switching teams typically don’t go well. Apparently, no one told Josh Jacobs. Joining the Green Bay Packers last year, Jacobs posted the second-best season of his career, outperforming his average draft position (ADP). Should fantasy football managers believe in Jacobs a second year in a row?
Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook
My general aversion to veteran running backs changing teams ultimately pushed me off Jacobs last year just enough that I wasn’t willing to draft him. It was unfortunate because, right after Jacobs signed with the Packers, I was all in. Over the subsequent months, I managed to talk myself out of Jacobs, missing out on one of the better values in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Jacobs’ dismal 2023 season was a perfect example of it being the team and not him. While volume is king in fantasy football, that wasn’t the issue with the Las Vegas Raiders. In fact, his volume was much higher with the Raiders than with the Packers.
Jacobs’ opportunity share was 83.7% and 84.9% in 2022 and 2023, both tops in the league. In his first year in Green Bay, it was only 66.5%. That’s still solid, but far less than what he was accustomed to seeing.
Yet, Jacobs went from 13.9 fantasy points per game in 2023 to 17.2 ppg in 2024. What changed?
There were two key factors in Jacobs’ resurgence. First, Jacobs went to a better team. His yards per carry increased from 3.5 to 4.4
Did Jacobs suddenly get better at football? Not really. He was just in a better environment.
Last season, the Raiders were dead last in yards before contact per rush at a paltry 1.08. The Packers gave Jacobs a solid 1.37. Although the Raiders were at 1.31 in 2023, which does point to Jacobs as being partially to blame.
More importantly, Jacobs reminded fantasy managers of my new mantra in fantasy football: touchdowns are everything. Jacobs scored six times in 13 games in 2023. He scored 16 times in 2024. Yep. That’ll do it.
JOSH JACOBS SECOND TOUCHDOWN OF THE DAY! WATCH HIM GO!! pic.twitter.com/ROXmD3jFAD
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 27, 2024
Jacobs led the league with 22 carries from inside the five-yard line. He only had 10 such attempts in 2023.
The wildest part is that Jacobs entered Week 8 with a total of one rushing touchdown on the season. He went on a scoring binge to close out the year, finding the end zone at least once in each of his final eight games (nine if you include the Packers’ lone playoff game).
Jacobs’ arrival also altered the Packers’ offensive approach. In 2023, the Packers had a 45% neutral game script run rate. In 2024, it was 53%, which led the league. If you look at the teams that are typically at the top of the league in neutral game script run rate, it’s the ones with mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Lamar Jackson (those were the next three teams on the list). The Packers have a pocket passer and still ran the ball more than anyone else in a neutral game script. That’s how Jacobs was able to maintain his elite volume despite technically sharing snaps and touches more than he did in Las Vegas.
This year, the Packers’ offense looks pretty much like it did last year. They added Matthew Golden and won’t have Christian Watson. Neither of those facts is going to change how they do things.
Jacobs is 27 years old. There’s no reason to worry about any sort of decline. His 9.3% target share is enough to keep from being entirely dependent on scoring.
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Jacobs is a very safe pick. It’s hard to fathom a scenario where anyone who drafts him loses because of him. At worst, he should be a mid RB2.
I have Jacobs ranked as my RB10, which is slightly lower than his RB8 ADP. He is a perfectly fine selection. I will gladly take Jacobs if he is the top player on my board at the time. If not, I’m not overly concerned about missing out on him, as we likely saw his ceiling last season.
Cameron Sheath’s Josh Jacobs Fantasy Projection
Josh Jacobs had a phenomenal first year in Green Bay, tallying over 1,300 yards rushing while adding 16 total touchdowns. There are arguments for why Year 2 will be better and why it will be worse for Jacobs after a stellar second half of the year.
Jacobs was the RB21 in PPR from Weeks 1-9 (minimum five games), with only two weekly finishes inside the top 12 at the position. Following the team’s Week 10 bye, though, Jacobs exploded, his 20.4 fantasy points per game ranking fifth among running backs from Weeks 11-18.
The Packers went into their bye week off the back of a disappointing 24-14 home loss to the Lions, in which QB Jordan Love played through an obvious injury. The quarterback struggled to reach low snaps and was repeatedly unable to move away from pressure in the pocket, while Jacobs diced Detroit for 7.31 yards per carry.
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Love’s pass attempts dropped significantly from then on, while Jacobs went on to score 12 touchdowns in the remaining eight games. The reasons for Green Bay’s switch to a more run-focused offense will have a significant bearing on Jacobs’ 2025 outlook.
If the former Raider was simply benefiting from Love’s injury, then Green Bay’s pass/run ratio will likely revert to the mean this coming season. However, if Jacobs was being rewarded for his output, having gotten used to his new team, he should be a candidate for RB1 overall in 2025.
