Josh Downs doesn’t get nearly the flowers he deserves. A true professional wide receiver, Downs may very well be the WR1 on the Indianapolis Colts. With a very affordable price, are fantasy football managers overlooking Downs’ potential in 2025 drafts?
Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook
There seems to be a lot of positivity surrounding Downs this season. Yet, his price in fantasy drafts doesn’t reflect this.
Downs is only 24 years old and entering his third NFL season, having shown promise in each of his first two. As a rookie, he averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game on a 68-771-2 line. He experienced a natural progression to 13.1 PPG as a sophomore, posting many promising metrics.
Downs earned a 25.6% target share and was targeted on 29.6% of his routes run, the sixth-most in the league. He did this despite running a route on 77.8% of Colts’ passing plays.
While Downs’ 6.9 aDOT, 97th in the league, may appear to be a detriment, he still managed 2.22 yards per route run, a testament to his yards after the catch ability. Additionally, a low aDOT isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It means his team is designing ways to get the ball in his hands.
3. Last year, Josh Downs ranked 10th-best in 1D/RR (0.114)…
…and 4th-best in TPRR (30%), behind only Puka Nacua, Drake London, and Malik Nabers.
This top-10 is filled with Downs and fantasy superstars. pic.twitter.com/laJ9Ynt8z4
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 26, 2025
Downs appeared to overtake Michael Pittman Jr. as the Colts’ top receiving threat. Although he operates primarily out of the slot, spending 72.5% of his time there last season, Downs earned targets at a higher rate than his counterpart.
Regardless, though, there’s room for both, as the Colts do not have a clear third option in the passing game behind their top two receivers. Rookie TE Tyler Warren could be that guy, but he should not be viewed as a threat to either Downs or Pittman.
For reasons that remain unclear, Downs’ average draft position (ADP) is down at WR46. Perhaps that is a remnant of earlier ADP data from when the Colts’ QB situation was less certain.
As things currently stand, Anthony Richardson is the favorite to be the Week 1 starter and make the most starts on the Colts this season. Of course, it is exceedingly likely that both he and Daniel Jones make starts. But that shouldn’t scare fantasy managers away.
First of all, we should get about half the season from Jones, who has proven capable of peppering guys like Downs underneath. Second, Downs wasn’t much worse with Richardson last season than with other quarterbacks, averaging 12.2 PPG with AR against 14.4 without him. Yes, 2.2 PPG matters, but at his price, Downs will be startable either way.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
I am incredibly bullish on Downs this season and believe he has a chance to crack the top 24, further progressing from where he was last season. I understand his ADP being lower due to the trepidation surrounding the Colts’ quarterbacks, but way down at Wr48 doesn’t make sense.
I have Downs ranked as my WR42, which puts me well above consensus. It took some time, but he’s become one of “my guys” this season. I want Downs everywhere, and you should, too.
Mason LeBeau‘s Josh Downs Fantasy Projection
Advanced analytics Twitter LOVES Josh Downs. As a fan of his as a draft prospect, I can absoutely get on board the hype. When the tape meets the underlying stats, that’s usually an excellent place for a player to be, especially if you can nab him in the back half of drafts. WR48 in the ~12th round should make him an easy bet to wait and see on your bench.
However, things aren’t super sunny in Indy. QB Daniel Jones has won the starting job for this offense, and he can probably get Downs a fair amount of targets, but the quality of them without the upside of a high-scoring offense leaves him in an uncomfortable place. Rookie TE Tyler Warren may soak up a lot of the easy targets underneath. Michael Pittman Jr. is still a good player, and this regime invested a high pick in Adonai Mitchell last season. There’s a lot of youth and talent in this offense, and not the quarterback play to feed them all.
Lastly, Downs is nursing a hamstring injury to start the season. That could eventually clear up, but it could also linger all season. I’d love to take a chance on Downs, but if this offense struggles and he doesn’t play much early on, I think he may be a better bet to wait on and scoop off waivers.