For the past five seasons, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been the best fantasy football quarterback. At this point, writing about Allen is a bit formulaic. He’s great. Everyone knows he’s great. But entering yet another season with a suspect group of wide receivers, could this be the year Allen fails to return value?
Josh Allen Fantasy Outlook
Production at the QB position is the most predictable and consistent from year to year. The larger the sample size PFSN has on a player’s performance, the more confident we can be in predicting what he will do in the upcoming season.
This combination makes Allen the best overall player in all of fantasy football.
Of course, this doesn’t mean he should go No. 1 overall, or even in the first round. Opportunity cost matters. Positional value matters. QBs don’t go in the first round for a very good reason. Purely looking at all players in a vacuum, though, Allen is the best.
Interestingly, Allen’s fantasy output has declined each of the past four seasons (not that it matters). He averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game last season, which was 0.1 ppg lower than the year before, which was 0.1 ppg lower than the year before that, which was .03 ppg lower than the year before that.
His ceiling is elite. His floor is elite. He’s as consistent as they get. He’s been the overall QB1 for three of the last five years.
There aren’t enough superlatives to adequately describe Allen as both an NFL quarterback and a fantasy asset. He’s an elite QB1 who is also his team’s primary goal-line back. Allen has rushed for 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. That gives him both the highest floor and the highest ceiling in fantasy football.
Just a reminder of how good Josh Allen is at football #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/svbtJG7zC8
— SleeperBills (@SleeperBills) May 26, 2025
If you compare Allen’s rushing efficiency now to his early career, it may seem like he’s less effective. However, the fact that he runs for so many short touchdowns, as well as the Bills’ version of the tush push, artificially decreases his yards per carry. Allen is an efficient runner.
In total, Allen accounted for 40 touchdowns last season. He scored 20+ fantasy points 12 times, including every game from Week 6 to 15. In Weeks 14 and 15, Allen had the greatest two-game stretch in the history of fantasy football, scoring 93.2 fantasy points over that span.
Allen Has Proven He Can Overcome a Weak Supporting Cast
On the ground, Allen has plenty of help in the form of James Cook. The issue is his pass-catchers. The loss of Stefon Diggs and the lack of adequate replacement did not hurt Allen last year. While the Bills didn’t do much to address the wide receiver position in 2025, the roster is now improved compared to a year ago.
Khalil Shakir established himself as a trustworthy option. The Bills also brought in Joshua Palmer via free agency. It’s an underrated signing, as Palmer is a reliable set of hands who consistently outperforms expectations. At the bare minimum, Palmer is better than every non-Shakir wide receiver the Bills had last season.
There’s no real need to analyze whether Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy. We know he is. The question fantasy managers need answered is at what point in fantasy drafts is it acceptable to take a quarterback?
Allen’s ADP sits at No. 21 overall. That’s about where he should go.
There are some really good running backs and wide receivers available at that spot. A few years ago, I would scoff at the notion that you should take a QB this early. Now, it comes down to how high you are on the RBs and WRs.
If there are RBs and WRs you really like that you believe to have top-five upside, it’s hard to push the button on Allen. At the same time, I have completely come around on the value of an elite quarterback.
Ultimately, fantasy football is a weekly game. Big-time performances are what swing matchups. Allen will win you multiple matchups throughout the season on his own.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
There are still several late-round QBs, I believe, who have a chance to return Jayden Daniels-like value this season. As great as Allen was last year, the optimal strategy was to draft a running back or wide receiver at Allen’s ADP and then take Daniels later.
If you miss out on Allen or opt to go with a wide receiver or running back, that’s perfectly fine. I want you to know that if you decide to take Allen in a spot that seems early for a QB, you should do it and feel good about it.
Frank Ammirante’s Josh Allen Fantasy Projection
If you’re willing to pay a premium at quarterback, Josh Allen offers the best combination of floor and upside due to his strong track record. The reigning MVP has finished as QB1 or QB2 in fantasy points per game for the last five seasons.
This is a dual-threat quarterback with the upside to rush for 10-plus touchdowns, a number he’s eclipsed in the previous two years, where he’s combined for 27 scores. With Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, expect the Bills to continue to be more run-heavy, with Allen continuing to be used as a weapon in the red zone.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
What separates Allen from Lamar Jackson as overall QB1 is that the Bills’ superstar doesn’t have an elite running back stealing away touchdowns like the Ravens’ former MVP does. It also helps that the Bills’ defense isn’t as good, which can force them into more shootouts.
With a limited group of pass-catchers led by Khalil Shakir, expect Allen to have to carry this offense just like he did last year. That means high-end rushing production and a boatload of touchdowns.
