For the past five seasons, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been the best fantasy football quarterback. At this point, writing about Allen is a bit formulaic. He’s great. Everyone knows he’s great. But entering yet another season with a suspect group of wide receivers, could this be the year Allen fails to return value?
Josh Allen Fantasy Outlook
Production at the QB position is the most predictable and consistent from year to year. The larger the sample size PFSN has on a player’s performance, the more confident we can be in predicting what he will do in the upcoming season.
This combination makes Allen the best overall player in all of fantasy football.
Of course, this doesn’t mean he should go No. 1 overall, or even in the first round. Opportunity cost matters. Positional value matters. QBs don’t go in the first round for a very good reason. Purely looking at all players in a vacuum, though, Allen is the best.
Interestingly, Allen’s fantasy output has declined each of the past four seasons (not that it matters). He averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game last season, which was 0.1 ppg lower than the year before, which was 0.1 ppg lower than the year before that, which was .03 ppg lower than the year before that.
His ceiling is elite. His floor is elite. He’s as consistent as they get. He’s been the overall QB1 for three of the last five years.
There aren’t enough superlatives to adequately describe Allen as both an NFL quarterback and a fantasy asset. He’s an elite QB1 who is also his team’s primary goal-line back. Allen has rushed for 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. That gives him both the highest floor and the highest ceiling in fantasy football.
Just a reminder of how good Josh Allen is at football #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/svbtJG7zC8
— SleeperBills (@SleeperBills) May 26, 2025
If you compare Allen’s rushing efficiency now to his early career, it may seem like he’s less effective. However, the fact that he runs for so many short touchdowns, as well as the Bills’ version of the tush push, artificially decreases his yards per carry. Allen is an efficient runner.
In total, Allen accounted for 40 touchdowns last season. He scored 20+ fantasy points 12 times, including every game from Week 6 to 15. In Weeks 14 and 15, Allen had the greatest two-game stretch in the history of fantasy football, scoring 93.2 fantasy points over that span.
Allen Has Proven He Can Overcome a Weak Supporting Cast
On the ground, Allen has plenty of help in the form of James Cook. The issue is his pass-catchers. The loss of Stefon Diggs and the lack of adequate replacement did not hurt Allen last year. While the Bills didn’t do much to address the wide receiver position in 2025, the roster is now improved compared to a year ago.
Khalil Shakir established himself as a trustworthy option. The Bills also brought in Joshua Palmer via free agency. It’s an underrated signing, as Palmer is a reliable set of hands who consistently outperforms expectations. At the bare minimum, Palmer is better than every non-Shakir wide receiver the Bills had last season.
There’s no real need to analyze whether Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy. We know he is. The question fantasy managers need answered is at what point in fantasy drafts is it acceptable to take a quarterback?
Allen’s ADP sits at No. 21 overall. That’s about where he should go.
There are some really good running backs and wide receivers available at that spot. A few years ago, I would scoff at the notion that you should take a QB this early. Now, it comes down to how high you are on the RBs and WRs.
If there are RBs and WRs you really like that you believe to have top-five upside, it’s hard to push the button on Allen. At the same time, I have completely come around on the value of an elite quarterback.
Ultimately, fantasy football is a weekly game. Big-time performances are what swing matchups. Allen will win you multiple matchups throughout the season on his own.
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There are still several late-round QBs, I believe, who have a chance to return Jayden Daniels-like value this season. As great as Allen was last year, the optimal strategy was to draft a running back or wide receiver at Allen’s ADP and then take Daniels later.
If you miss out on Allen or opt to go with a wide receiver or running back, that’s perfectly fine. I want you to know that if you decide to take Allen in a spot that seems early for a QB, you should do it and feel good about it.
Dan Fornek’s Josh Allen Fantasy Projection
Josh Allen has developed into one of the most reliable fantasy quarterbacks you can draft. Since 2020, he has scored at least 22.0 fantasy points every season and has four straight top-two finishes at the quarterback position.
Over the last five seasons, Allen has averaged a 65.2% completion percentage for 4,254 yards and 33 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. He’s also averaged 112 carries for 600 yards and 10 touchdowns, which has helped elevate him to a consistent top quarterback in fantasy.
Allen didn’t produce his typical passing numbers in 2024 (3,731 passing yards with 23 touchdowns) but became an even more efficient passer by limiting his interceptions (6). Allen has remained one of the best fantasy quarterbacks thanks to his ability to score touchdowns as a rusher.Â
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Over the last two seasons, Allen has scored 27 touchdowns on the ground. The Bills don’t have a true No. 1 wide receiver, but they have a strong cast of returning players like Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman, joined by newcomers like Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore.
Allen’s development as a passer and his consistent production as a rusher put him in the conversation for the QB1 in fantasy again in 2025.Â
